WI PrimD: Public Policy Polling: Obama up 11 in Wisconsin
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Author Topic: WI PrimD: Public Policy Polling: Obama up 11 in Wisconsin  (Read 2078 times)
Wiz in Wis
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« on: February 12, 2008, 12:38:32 PM »
New Poll: Wisconsin President by Public Policy Polling on 2008-02-12

Summary:
Obama:
50%
Clinton:
39%
Other:
1%
Undecided:
10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: February 12, 2008, 12:59:33 PM »
You beat me to it by about 30 seconds. I will erase my thread.

Great news though! Wisconsin kicks ass when it comes to their political decisions.
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Alcon
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« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2008, 12:59:42 PM »
Huh.

I don't really buy it.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #3 on: February 12, 2008, 01:00:06 PM »
Oh, good, someone who disagrees with ARG. I must admit that the agreement with ARG in Virginia has me slightly unsettled. They're not allowed to be correct.
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TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
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« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2008, 01:01:27 PM »

Why not? Wisconsin loves reform-minded candidates and I've always expected Obama to win this state.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: February 12, 2008, 01:12:32 PM »

It completely contradicts ARG, so it's probably right.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #6 on: February 12, 2008, 01:50:18 PM »
Just today I have seen Obama's "mother" ad twice, and heared a youth oriented radio ad on FM 102.1 in Milwaukee. My fiance attended a volunteer meeting last friday in Racine and there were 80 people in attendance... she said from all walks of life. We will be volunteering this Sunday as well. If I had a guess, I would think that Obama has a significant lead. possibly not 11 points, but at least 5 with a week to climb.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #7 on: February 12, 2008, 03:50:39 PM »
I think winning Wisconsin could seal the deal for Obama if he wins.  It would be the first win he's gotten which couldn't be explained away by his caucus advantage or his support among black voters.  I think that would be a big blow to Hillary.
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agcatter
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« Reply #8 on: February 12, 2008, 04:38:10 PM »
Would be a blow but demographics overwhelmingly favor Clinton in delegate rich states of Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  Obama needs somehow to reach at least 45 or 46% in Ohio and Texas.  Make em respectable.
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Gabu
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« Reply #9 on: February 12, 2008, 04:48:51 PM »
Quote from: Padfoot on February 12, 2008, 03:50:39 PM
I think winning Wisconsin could seal the deal for Obama if he wins.  It would be the first win he's gotten which couldn't be explained away by his caucus advantage or his support among black voters.  I think that would be a big blow to Hillary.

Utah?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #10 on: February 12, 2008, 04:56:27 PM »
Quote from: Gabu on February 12, 2008, 04:48:51 PM
Quote from: Padfoot on February 12, 2008, 03:50:39 PM
I think winning Wisconsin could seal the deal for Obama if he wins.  It would be the first win he's gotten which couldn't be explained away by his caucus advantage or his support among black voters.  I think that would be a big blow to Hillary.

Utah?

lol

States with actual live Democrats in them. Smiley
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Gabu
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« Reply #11 on: February 12, 2008, 04:57:38 PM »
Quote from: Gustaf on February 12, 2008, 04:56:27 PM
Quote from: Gabu on February 12, 2008, 04:48:51 PM
Quote from: Padfoot on February 12, 2008, 03:50:39 PM
I think winning Wisconsin could seal the deal for Obama if he wins.  It would be the first win he's gotten which couldn't be explained away by his caucus advantage or his support among black voters.  I think that would be a big blow to Hillary.

Utah?

lol

States with actual live Democrats in them. Smiley

Fine, fine. Tongue
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #12 on: February 12, 2008, 05:02:36 PM »
What about CT and MO?  Those were both primaries.  Do they really have that large a black population?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #13 on: February 12, 2008, 05:06:19 PM »
Quote from: Gabu on February 12, 2008, 04:48:51 PM
Quote from: Padfoot on February 12, 2008, 03:50:39 PM
I think winning Wisconsin could seal the deal for Obama if he wins.  It would be the first win he's gotten which couldn't be explained away by his caucus advantage or his support among black voters.  I think that would be a big blow to Hillary.

Utah?

Not to mention Connecticut, Delaware, etc...
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #14 on: February 12, 2008, 05:20:25 PM »
Two other things to take into account on Wisconsin:

1-Wisconsin is an open primary.
2-Wisconsin has same day voter registration.
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Gabu
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« Reply #15 on: February 12, 2008, 05:21:18 PM »
In thinking about this, hasn't PPP been pretty bad in the past?

Not that this result seems unlikely, just thinking aloud.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #16 on: February 12, 2008, 05:30:02 PM »
Supposedly but I don't know much about them. They were one of the best in SC this year though.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #17 on: February 12, 2008, 05:36:08 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on February 12, 2008, 05:02:36 PM
What about CT and MO?  Those were both primaries.  Do they really have that large a black population?


Not higher than the national average. CT: 11%, MO: 12%, National: 13%.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #18 on: February 12, 2008, 06:04:47 PM »
PPP was a mostly Democratic-based firm in the past that started doing "independent" polling in the 2006 elections for NC.

Naturally, it is a NC-based firm, and that is thus the only state in which I would really "trust" its polling (though the SC result wasn't bad).
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Gustaf
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« Reply #19 on: February 12, 2008, 06:18:14 PM »
Missouri had a 77% white vote and Obama got 39% of the white vote. Clinton got 57% of it.

In Connecticut Obama got 48% of the white vote (with Clinton getting 50%). But Missouri seems like the better predictor for Ohio.
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