Official Potomac/Beltway Primary Discussion Thread (DEM)
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Author Topic: Official Potomac/Beltway Primary Discussion Thread (DEM)  (Read 23592 times)
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #25 on: February 12, 2008, 05:15:02 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on February 12, 2008, 05:04:35 PM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on February 12, 2008, 05:02:48 PM
So my prediction of a Hillary upset is definitley going to be wrong since she's already in Texas. I just wonder how bad the margin will be.

I don't think Obama's in the area either this evening (Wisconsin).  Will be happy to be corrected, if wrong.

Well, it's still worse for Hillary because she would need to be there for a surprise win.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #26 on: February 12, 2008, 05:19:17 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on February 12, 2008, 05:15:02 PM
Quote from: Sam Spade on February 12, 2008, 05:04:35 PM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on February 12, 2008, 05:02:48 PM
So my prediction of a Hillary upset is definitley going to be wrong since she's already in Texas. I just wonder how bad the margin will be.

I don't think Obama's in the area either this evening (Wisconsin).  Will be happy to be corrected, if wrong.

Well, it's still worse for Hillary because she would need to be there for a surprise win.

I think it's simply a scheduled campaign stop for both sides that's been planned for the last few days, at least.  Maybe I'm wrong here, though...
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #27 on: February 12, 2008, 05:25:53 PM »
I assume Hillary won't give a concession speech (as usual).
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #28 on: February 12, 2008, 05:32:20 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on February 12, 2008, 05:25:53 PM
I assume Hillary won't give a concession speech (as usual).

Probably not...
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #29 on: February 12, 2008, 05:38:23 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on February 12, 2008, 05:04:35 PM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on February 12, 2008, 05:02:48 PM
So my prediction of a Hillary upset is definitley going to be wrong since she's already in Texas. I just wonder how bad the margin will be.

I don't think Obama's in the area either this evening (Wisconsin).  Will be happy to be corrected, if wrong.

No, you're correct.  Obama will be in Madison tonight.
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Kushahontas
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« Reply #30 on: February 12, 2008, 05:40:29 PM »
clinton is speaking at my local university (ut pan american) tomorrow and in the morning we're all invited to a kickoff rally at the convention centerrrr
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Sarnstrom
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« Reply #31 on: February 12, 2008, 06:04:11 PM »
MSNBC just said that the exit polls showed a high increase of first time voters in Virginia. Another good sign for Obama.
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Ben.
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« Reply #32 on: February 12, 2008, 06:08:47 PM »
Quote from: Sarnstrom on February 12, 2008, 06:04:11 PM
MSNBC just said that the exit polls showed a high increase of first time voters in Virginia. Another good sign for Obama.

...exit poll, we'll see when we see.
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exopolitician
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« Reply #33 on: February 12, 2008, 06:11:36 PM »
Quote from: Sarnstrom on February 12, 2008, 06:04:11 PM
MSNBC just said that the exit polls showed a high increase of first time voters in Virginia. Another good sign for Obama.

They also said there was a high turnout of women too....which could be a hinderance...not sure. Hes never really done that well with women.
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #34 on: February 12, 2008, 06:14:25 PM »
Im watching ESPN and they have a title saying a reporter will meet with Arlen Specter (D-PA) to discuss spygate. Totally offtopic but pretty funny.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #35 on: February 12, 2008, 06:14:52 PM »
Any information on black turnout?
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #36 on: February 12, 2008, 06:16:01 PM »
Slightly lower (in Virginia) as a percentage than in 2004.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #37 on: February 12, 2008, 06:16:58 PM »
Quote from: Texas4Obama! on February 12, 2008, 06:16:01 PM
Slightly lower (in Virginia) as a percentage than in 2004.

hmmm....
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Sarnstrom
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« Reply #38 on: February 12, 2008, 06:20:12 PM »
Black percentage down from 33% to 29%.
Women percentage stagnant at 56%.
First time voters up from 26% to 35%.
(Based on 2004 numbers)
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they don't love you like i love you
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« Reply #39 on: February 12, 2008, 06:20:58 PM »
The drop in the black vote doesn't necessarily mean the blacks stayed home, it's possible that most of those first time voters are white (and likely young too). Not a bad thing for Obama.
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Flying Dog
Jtfdem
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« Reply #40 on: February 12, 2008, 06:21:29 PM »
Quote from: Sarnstrom on February 12, 2008, 06:20:12 PM
Black percentage down from 33% to 29%.
Women percentage stagnant at 56%.
First time voters up from 26% to 35%.
(Based on 2004 numbers)

Hmmm is right. These numbers really can't tell us who will benefit and who won't.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #41 on: February 12, 2008, 06:22:23 PM »
Fox News is always less restrained than the others in giving out exit poll numbers like this before polls close:

http://thepage.time.com/potomac-primary-exit-poll-data-from-fox-news/

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Gabu
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« Reply #42 on: February 12, 2008, 06:23:21 PM »

If that's accurate, that's great news for Obama.
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exopolitician
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« Reply #43 on: February 12, 2008, 06:25:40 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on February 12, 2008, 06:22:23 PM
Fox News is always less restrained than the others in giving out exit poll numbers like this before polls close:

http://thepage.time.com/potomac-primary-exit-poll-data-from-fox-news/

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Virginians arent racist...obviously Tongue
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #44 on: February 12, 2008, 06:26:21 PM »
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Actually all these are VERY bad for Clinton.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #45 on: February 12, 2008, 06:26:35 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on February 12, 2008, 06:22:23 PM
Fox News is always less restrained than the others in giving out exit poll numbers like this before polls close:

http://thepage.time.com/potomac-primary-exit-poll-data-from-fox-news/

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Well, chuck that exit poll.  Obama winning Seniors?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #46 on: February 12, 2008, 06:27:04 PM »
Those numbers would translate out to a roughly 60-40 vote or so, if my math is correct (and assumptions about blacks)
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Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred
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« Reply #47 on: February 12, 2008, 06:27:47 PM »
Drudge is reporting exit polls showing Obama 2:1 win over Hillary in both MD and VA.  3 to 1 in the District.  

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Verily
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« Reply #48 on: February 12, 2008, 06:28:51 PM »
Quote from: The Mikado on February 12, 2008, 06:26:35 PM
Quote from: Mr. Morden on February 12, 2008, 06:22:23 PM
Fox News is always less restrained than the others in giving out exit poll numbers like this before polls close:

http://thepage.time.com/potomac-primary-exit-poll-data-from-fox-news/

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Well, chuck that exit poll.  Obama winning Seniors?

Possible if he won black seniors by 8-1 margins and then did reasonably well with white seniors.
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Gabu
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« Reply #49 on: February 12, 2008, 06:29:16 PM »
Well, polls close in half an hour, so we'll see soon enough if these exit polls are accurate.
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