If dems did winner takes all

[ukchris82]

If dems did a winner takes all in the states that republicans do, what would the delegate totals be?


Cheers

Chris

[Gabu]

Obviously Clinton, due to California and New York.

[Iosif is a COTHO]

Assuming the total pledged delegates is the same:


Obama: 1190
Clinton: 1075

That doesn't include MI and FL or the superdelegates.


So Obama would have a bigger lead in that case.  (But would be more susceptible to a fall in Ohio and Texas)

[Gabu]

Assuming the total pledged delegates is the same:


Obama: 1190
Clinton: 1075

That doesn't include MI and FL or the superdelegates.


So Obama would have a bigger lead in that case.  (But would be more susceptible to a fall in Ohio and Texas)

Eh?  Where does Obama pick up all those delegates?  I figured for sure Clinton would have a lead, what with her winning most of the big states.

[Iosif is a COTHO]

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IA, SC, AL, AK, CO, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, MO, ND, UT, LA, NE, WA, ME, DC, VI, MD, VA. 


Lots of small states tend to beat a few big states. Though as I said, were it WTA, Clinton would be in a better position now because of Ohio and Texas. Obama would have to win one of them.

[Gabu]

The original poster specified that this is only "winner takes all in the states that republicans do".  In other words, if the Republicans don't have winner take all in a state, neither do the Democrats in this scenario.

[Iosif is a COTHO]

Ah well, funnily enough TPM Election Central has done the same thing today and come up with slightly different numbers. Where did I give Obama the extra ones, I wonder

Edit: I got ahead of myself and gave him Hawaii and Wisconsin! Oops.

   Delegates
Obama   1,096
Clinton   1,075

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/hillary_would_have_benefitted.php#more

[Trilobyte]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/02/15/us/politics/20080215_DELEGATES_GRAPHIC.html

Look towards the bottom of the graphic.

[Mr. Morden]

In a 2-person race, PR actually tends to (effectively) end things more quickly, since it becomes really hard to catch up once you've fallen behind (though I guess the possibility of superdelegates overturning the pledged delegates complicates that somewhat).  With WTA, even if you're far behind, you can make up a lot of ground with just a few 51%-49% wins.