More on a Hillary Comback [Michael Barone does the delegate math]

[Torie]

You can read Michael Barone's latest blog on his delegate math calculations here.

Hillary still has s reasonable shot, provided she can stop the erosion. The increasing economic worries might help her, as the economically stressed who aren't black start to worry more about where their next government subsidy might come from, than getting a vicarious high from rhetorical inspiration and symbolism.

[8 out of 11 is not deserved]

I've found Barone to be an objective analyst.

"My bottom line take: The turf looks fairly favorable to Clinton, provided she wins Ohio and Texas March 4. Not favorable enough, perhaps, for her to overtake Obama in "pledged" delegates, but enough to keep the overall delegate count excruciatingly close, unless the super delegates start cascading to Obama"

Let's take his predictions assuming Obama wins WI and Hawaii.  Of the next 18 contests, Hillary is unlikely to catch him in pledge delegates ( as implied by Barone, which I agree with ).  That will give Hillary wins in less than 20 contests while Obama has won 30+ contests.  Unless she blows out OH, TX, and PA, he figures to lead in the popular votes across all the contests (my view).

That leaves the contest with Obama having the most pledge delegates, the most "state" wins by a large margin, and the largest amount of popular votes.  Assuming that Obama hold the lead over McCain in national polls, he is the democrat with the best polling chance to win.

That leaves Hillary with two ways to get the nomination (1) have the super delegates override the primary results or (2) change the rules around FL and MI

Could happen but it's a real long shot at this point

[Reaganfan]

If Hillary wins OH, TX and then PA on April 22nd...it's gonna be her game to lose again.

[Torie]

I was emailed a nice spreadsheet, and did some homework. Using Barone's figures where he reveals him, and for the balance of the jurisdictions, excluding Guam and Puerto Rico (and Hawaii and Wisconsin), and working with Green Papers and going CD by CD, I came up with some elected pledged delegate totals for the balance of the states. I assumed various statewide percentages (2-1 Obama in Mississippi, 60% Obama in NC, a narrow Obama win in Oregon, Clinton winning Indiana and Pennsylvania by 14% each, Kentucky Hillary by 15%, etc.

Given the above assumptions, the delegate numbers were 508 Clinton, 449 Obama. Obama gets some advantage from black CD's getting more delegates, and a fair number of CD's having an even number of delegates, which makes in unlikely with a few exceptions that there will be anything other than an even split. And in other places, like across   Western Pennsylvania, there were a lot of 3 Clinton delegates, 2 Obama delegates CD's. With Clinton winning the state by 57%., the delegate split is 82 Clinton, 76 Obama, hardly an exciting firewall for Clinton.

By the way, given Pennsylvania, I suspect Barone gives too many delegates to Clinton in Ohio, but I did not run the numbers myself.

In any event, Barone might be right: Puerto Rico is "the place."

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And in other places, like across Pennslyvania in the West, there were a lot of 3 Clinton delegates, 2 Obama delegates. With Clinton winning the state by 56%., the delegate split is 82 Clinton, 76 Obama, hardly an exciting firewall for Clinton.

Ouch, wouldn't that disappoint Phil.

[Keystone Phil]

And in other places, like across Pennslyvania in the West, there were a lot of 3 Clinton delegates, 2 Obama delegates. With Clinton winning the state by 56%., the delegate split is 82 Clinton, 76 Obama, hardly an exciting firewall for Clinton.

Ouch, wouldn't that disappoint Phil.

I'll be content with Hillary winning with about 60%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And in other places, like across Pennslyvania in the West, there were a lot of 3 Clinton delegates, 2 Obama delegates. With Clinton winning the state by 56%., the delegate split is 82 Clinton, 76 Obama, hardly an exciting firewall for Clinton.

Ouch, wouldn't that disappoint Phil.

I'll be content with Hillary winning with about 60%.

That's not going to happen. Even the Quinnipiac poll with her up 16 doesn't have her anywhere near that (and this is before any actual campaigning.)

[Keystone Phil]

And in other places, like across Pennslyvania in the West, there were a lot of 3 Clinton delegates, 2 Obama delegates. With Clinton winning the state by 56%., the delegate split is 82 Clinton, 76 Obama, hardly an exciting firewall for Clinton.

Ouch, wouldn't that disappoint Phil.

I'll be content with Hillary winning with about 60%.

That's not going to happen. Even the Quinnipiac poll with her up 16 doesn't have her anywhere near that (and this is before any actual campaigning.)

Ok, and I think it will. Eddie and the machine will get her the victory she needs. Obama is going to do well in Philly and some areas of the SE but they'll be sure to pump up her numbers everywhere else.

[Person Man]

Too bad its not going to happen. Hillary NEVER won 60% of the vote. She couldn't even when 60 in New York!

[Keystone Phil]

Too bad its not going to happen. Hillary NEVER won 60% of the vote. She couldn't even when 60 in New York!

Hillary won 70% in Arkansas.

Aside from AK, MA and OK (not counting MI for obvious reasons), Hillary has never hit 55% but plenty of people think she will in PA so what's your point?

[exopolitician]

Too bad its not going to happen. Hillary NEVER won 60% of the vote. She couldn't even when 60 in New York!

Hillary won 70% in Arkansas.

Aside from AK, MA and OK (not counting MI for obvious reasons), Hillary has never hit 55% but plenty of people think she will in PA so what's your point?

People can "think" and "wish" all they want but its doubtful she'll win over 60% in PA. She didnt even win 60% in Oklahoma, New York, Mass, and Tennessee...which all were he strongest states. Arkansas is the only state where she did ridiculously well.

[Keystone Phil]

Too bad its not going to happen. Hillary NEVER won 60% of the vote. She couldn't even when 60 in New York!

Hillary won 70% in Arkansas.

Aside from AK, MA and OK (not counting MI for obvious reasons), Hillary has never hit 55% but plenty of people think she will in PA so what's your point?

People can "think" and "wish" all they want but its doubtful she'll win over 60% in PA. She didnt even win 60% in Oklahoma, New York, Mass, and Tennessee...which all were he strongest states. Arkansas is the only state where she did ridiculously well.

Hillary paid little attention to those states though. When PA is win or go home, she'll deliver and so will the entire PA Dem establishment. I don't think she'll win with over 60%; I said she'd hit 60%.

[Angel of Death]

That would be *ugly* if it all boils down to a "pledged delegates versus popular vote" consideration (ignoring even the MI+FL problem).

[Torie]

Actually I assumed 57% margins for Hillary in Pennsylvania and Indiana, having rechecked my spreadsheet. In Indiana that gives Hillary 39 delegates, Obama 33. Hillary is screwed by a  lot of CD's that award 4 delegates, so it will be 2 to each. And then Obama picks up a 3 delegates  net in the two heavily black districts (in CD-1 I give Obama 4 delegates, Hillary 2), and Hillary picks up 3 delegates net in the remaining CD's that have 5 delegates (3 to Hillary, and the Indiananpolis CD-9 to Obama). The 3 CD's with 4 delegates I award two delegates to each. So the CD allocation in Indiana is one delegate net to Clinton, while having won the state by 57%. She picks another 4 delegates net from the statewide allocation (and I see I am off a delegate, whatever).

One other thing: Hillary getting 60% rather than 57% in Pennsylvania might net her at most another 10 delegates (4 statewide, and maybe she can squeeze another 6 out of the CD's being very generous to her, but it will be tough to get that many. When most non inner city CD's get 4 delegates, or 5 delegates, the math just does not work. She will have to carry most to all of the  Philly Suburban CD's to do it.)

[exopolitician]

Too bad its not going to happen. Hillary NEVER won 60% of the vote. She couldn't even when 60 in New York!

Hillary won 70% in Arkansas.

Aside from AK, MA and OK (not counting MI for obvious reasons), Hillary has never hit 55% but plenty of people think she will in PA so what's your point?

People can "think" and "wish" all they want but its doubtful she'll win over 60% in PA. She didnt even win 60% in Oklahoma, New York, Mass, and Tennessee...which all were he strongest states. Arkansas is the only state where she did ridiculously well.

Hillary paid little attention to those states though. When PA is win or go home, she'll deliver and so will the entire PA Dem establishment. I don't think she'll win with over 60%; I said she'd hit 60%.

If Obama neglects to campaign there, yeah I can see her hitting 60%...but I doubt hes that stupid enough to NOT campaign there. Even though I dont see good numbers for Obama there...I still dont think Clinton will demolish him that much.

Plus Hillary did a fair bit of campaigning in Tennessee and New York should be obvious as its her homestate. She was expected to do well in the other states though, and her and her husband practically invaded Arkansas.

[Keystone Phil]

Plus Hillary did a fair bit of campaigning in Tennessee and New York should be obvious as its her homestate. She was expected to do well in the other states though, and her and her husband practically invaded Arkansas.

No, it ought to be obvious that NY wasn't exactly a huge focus because it's her home state.

Obama will obviously contest PA. He'll do well in Philly, Montco, Bucks and Centre (Penn State college vote) counties. I can't find any other areas where he'd do that well.

[exopolitician]

Plus Hillary did a fair bit of campaigning in Tennessee and New York should be obvious as its her homestate. She was expected to do well in the other states though, and her and her husband practically invaded Arkansas.

No, it ought to be obvious that NY wasn't exactly a huge focus because it's her home state.

Obama will obviously contest PA. He'll do well in Philly, Montco, Bucks and Centre (Penn State college vote) counties. I can't find any other areas where he'd do that well.

I was trying to make that point I just worded it wrong, NY was her homestate so its obvious she didnt need that much attention to it. But the numbers show it was closer than the Clintons wanted it even in her homestate, where she didnt even break 60%.

[Sam Spade]

A couple of points, and a question:

1 - I suspect Kentucky will be much uglier for Obama than a 15% loss - outside of the black areas, I can see a map that looks a lot like western Virginia or Tennessee.  Bill was particulary liked in this state.  Same goes with WV, though you didn't mention it.  I am still doing the math on Indiana, fwiw, but I remember the state is still back in the 1950s.

2 - Obama won't get 60% in NC, at least not if it's contested.  Not in the NC I remember.  Sure, it's got the same black population as Virginia, but the white population is quite different.

What is the breakdown on the PA CDs, or the OH CDs for that matter?

[Torie]

Here are the Penn CD's. I didn't do Ohio, I just used Barone's numbers.

1   5   2
2   7   2
3   2   3
4   2   3
5   2   2
6   4   2
7   3   4
8   3   4
9   1   2
10   2   2
11   2   3
12   2   3
13   4   3
14   3   4
15   3   2
16   2   2
17   2   2
18   2   3
19   2   2
   23   32
      
   76   82

[Sam Spade]

Here are the Penn CD's. I didn't do Ohio, I just used Barone's numbers.

1   5   2
2   7   2
3   2   3
4   2   3
5   2   2
6   4   2
7   3   4
8   3   4
9   1   2
10   2   2
11   2   3
12   2   3
13   4   3
14   3   4
15   3   2
16   2   2
17   2   2
18   2   3
19   2   2
   23   32
      
   76   82

Thanks.  What does it take to get an extra delegate in the 3, 4, 5, 6, 7-delegate CDs (heck even Fattah's 9-delegate CD)?

[Torie]

I assumed 60% for Hillary in Kentucky by the way, and Green papers loses 3 delegates in its CD totals, so I gave Hillary 2 and Obama 1 as to the missing 3 delegates.

1   2   3
2   2   2
3   5   2
4   2   3
5   2   2
6   2   4
   7   10

   22   26
   23   28

I didn't spend much time on WV. I have Hillary 18 delegates, and Obama 10.

[Sam Spade]

I doubt that 5-2 will be happening in KY-03, even though I don't know the proportional splits.

I expect Kentucky, numbers-wise, to be a lot like Oklahoma, except without the Edwards protest vote.  That doesn't mean the voting patterns will be the same, however.

[Torie]

I doubt that 5-2 will be happening in KY-03, even though I don't know the proportional splits.

I expect Kentucky, numbers-wise, to be a lot like Oklahoma, except without the Edwards protest vote.  That doesn't mean the voting patterns will be the same, however.

You don't think the vote in CD-3 will be two thirds black, or close to it? And some upscale Pubbies might show up to vote their displeasure with Hillary. I think my allocation is reasonable, but hey if you want to give Hillary another delegate, go for it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The district is only a fifth black. Obviously this'll be higher in a Democratic primary, but not two thirds.

[Sam Spade]

I doubt that 5-2 will be happening in KY-03, even though I don't know the proportional splits.

I expect Kentucky, numbers-wise, to be a lot like Oklahoma, except without the Edwards protest vote.  That doesn't mean the voting patterns will be the same, however.

You don't think the vote in CD-3 will be two thirds black?

Well, CD-03 is about 19% black.  Kentucky is a closed primary, so how much of the "affluent" Louisville suburbs are Republican.  And essentially, how much of the rest of the CD is registered Democrat, considering that statewide registration numbers are about 57% Democrat.