Our prediction map.

[tarheel-leftist85]

I have a few questions. Why is NC strong republican? NC should be lean, or that is what the polls are saying right now. Also AZ why is it lean republican? It should be strong republican. Also IA should be lean to strong democratic.

This is what it should look like.

I really think in a Mccain vs Obama race, NC will be strong rep(>10% margin). If you think otherwise let me know why. As for AZ it has a huge latino population and thus can never be strong republican. The latinos are pretty conservative though so the republican party is in a good position there.

NC has alot of college towns with big populations for one. 22% of the state is black. The triangle will go to Obama 60% or better. But who knows, Nov is a long time away.

I think simple math demonstrates that Obama has NC.  Assuming that 26 or 27% (about what it was in 2004) of the electorate is African-American, that they vote for Obama 93 or 94% (this may be a conservative estimate), and whites vote for Obama around 34 or 35% (his highest share of the vote in match-ups against Reps. according to the latest surveys and w/o additional votes from the undecided column), Obama will win (that's without factoring in the 3-5% of the electorate that will probably be Hispanic-American, Asian-American, Native American, mixed race, etc.  I'm fairly certain he wins the state, especially with a Republican based demoralized by the *selection* of a limousine conservative as the nominee.  Obama just has to strike the right chords in this state:  a lot of populism and shades of progressivism.  Virginia & Florida should be just about the same despite a large presence of veterans (after all, more veterans have donated to Obama than 100 years McCain).  In NC, I wouldn't be surprised to see large swings in Onslow & Cumberland counties.  If people want to make up stories about North Carolina and (all) white North Carolinians being whatever stereotypes are hoisted upon us or implied by the red state/blue state narrative conjured by the neoliberal media, then I think that they're in for a rude awakening come November.

[tarheel-leftist85]

Then again, we're assuming that turnout among white conservative protestants will be commensurate with increases in the North Carolina electorate from 2004 to 2008 as other groups (African-Americans, non-WCPs, etc.).  That is, any increases in the black electorate will be matched by other demographics, and in an Obama/McCain contest with a Bush/Kerry contest.  I don't think that's true.  If Harvey Gantt can pull 47% against the Helms machine in the 90s (i.e., not a good time to be a Democratic candidate in North Carolina, regardless of race/gender/ideology), I don't see Obama having trouble either.  I will concede that NC is lost if Obama thinks it is and refuses to contest the state from the outset.  If he wants to assume that the map is going to be static, and go after latte liberals in Colorado (which also isn't a winning strategy), then he'll have his work cut out for him.  If he wants to base his candidacy on volatile polling with suspect stratification (PPPs sample only has African-Americans as being 18% of the electorate, and looking at the numbers within that sub-sample aren't sound since it is smaller than that of the larger white sub-sample), the he can expect to do similarly in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Colorado, etc.