I'd say that Obama v. McCain is....
Safe for Obama - 179
Lean to Obama - 80
Tossups - 77
Lean to McCain - 13
Safe for McCain - 189
I don't see Obama v. McCain as a 50/50 election. More like a 3-5 pt. national advantage for Obama. I do think McCain has a pretty large safe base however that I would guess Obama would have a hard time winning regardless. I think Obama's going to get his overall nat'l advantage from running up huge numbers in safe, progressive-minded Democratic states. (ex. hitting 60% in NY, MA, IL, maybe CA) McCain does well in keeping the GOP base intact, but it just doesn't feel like the Republican's year if they go against someone like Obama whose likability extends across the spectrum.
Clinton v. McCain
Safe for Clinton - 174
Leans to Clinton - 104
Tossup - 68
Leans to McCain - 14
Safe for McCain - 178
Different election. Clinton plays better in the Upper South and Rust Belt, but not as good out West. McCain's support relatively the same, although I think he would do better in Democratic states against Hillary.
