Bush Leads in Georgia by Only 3%
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  Bush Leads in Georgia by Only 3%
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Q
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« on: February 12, 2004, 09:15:03 PM »

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/insider/index.html

Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Political Insider
Buzz from the Backrooms, War Rooms, and the Golden Dome
Thursday 2/12/04

...

Fresh Democratic poll: Bush strong, but slightly stale in Georgia; and Kerry seems to be catching on.

Fresh from his victory in pushing Atlanta's sales-tax-for-sewers bill through the state Senate, Kasim Reed of Atlanta has been named co-chairman of the John Kerry presidential campaign in Georgia. His partner will be David Worley, the former state Democratic Party chairman and congressional candidate.

Reed, a confidant of Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin, said Kerry could be counted on for at least one visit to Georgia before the March 2 primary.

Recent polling might make him happier to be here.

Democratic pollster Beth Shapiro on Wednesday produced a poll showing President Bush's re-elect numbers still below the 50 percent mark -- lower than expected, she said, in a state that he carried comfortably in 2000. Bush's race against a generic Democrat has also closed a tad since October.

According to Shapiro's numbers, support for Bush is strongest in North Georgia, perhaps because of Zell Miller's endorsement. Surprisingly, Bush support is at lowest ebb in Middle Georgia.

Here are her numbers, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points:

VOTE FOR

Republican George W. Bush
2/04: 47%
10/03: 49%

Democratic candidate
2/04: 44%
10/03: 41%

LIKE TO SEE BUSH REELECTED

Yes
2/04: 48%
10/03: 48%

No
2/04: 46%
10/03: 44%

The poll also shows Kerry leaping to the front of the pack with Georgia Democrats likely to participate in the March 2 presidential primary. Shapiro considers Kerry "well-positioned to win the primary." Sen. John Edwards is running a distant second, Al Sharpton doesn't seem to be moving, and support for Don't Know seems to be shrinking.
...

Within the MoE in a what should be a strong Bush state. Not good news for Bush.  Then again, keep in mind that this poll was conducted by a Democratic organization.  Perhaps it is only a preview of how close 2004 is shaping up to be.
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zachman
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« Reply #1 on: February 12, 2004, 09:37:50 PM »

Wow! What do you think QQQQQQ? Is it even there. That would seem impossible to me, Clinton lost there in 1996. This number and the Kansas number are incredibly surprising. I had thought that the northeast and pacific coasts were the only region to grow significantly more anti-Bush.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2004, 09:48:44 PM »

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/insider/index.html

Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Political Insider
Buzz from the Backrooms, War Rooms, and the Golden Dome
Thursday 2/12/04

...

Fresh Democratic poll: Bush strong, but slightly stale in Georgia; and Kerry seems to be catching on.

Fresh from his victory in pushing Atlanta's sales-tax-for-sewers bill through the state Senate, Kasim Reed of Atlanta has been named co-chairman of the John Kerry presidential campaign in Georgia. His partner will be David Worley, the former state Democratic Party chairman and congressional candidate.

Reed, a confidant of Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin, said Kerry could be counted on for at least one visit to Georgia before the March 2 primary.

Recent polling might make him happier to be here.

Democratic pollster Beth Shapiro on Wednesday produced a poll showing President Bush's re-elect numbers still below the 50 percent mark -- lower than expected, she said, in a state that he carried comfortably in 2000. Bush's race against a generic Democrat has also closed a tad since October.

According to Shapiro's numbers, support for Bush is strongest in North Georgia, perhaps because of Zell Miller's endorsement. Surprisingly, Bush support is at lowest ebb in Middle Georgia.

Here are her numbers, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points:

VOTE FOR

Republican George W. Bush
2/04: 47%
10/03: 49%

Democratic candidate
2/04: 44%
10/03: 41%

LIKE TO SEE BUSH REELECTED

Yes
2/04: 48%
10/03: 48%

No
2/04: 46%
10/03: 44%

The poll also shows Kerry leaping to the front of the pack with Georgia Democrats likely to participate in the March 2 presidential primary. Shapiro considers Kerry "well-positioned to win the primary." Sen. John Edwards is running a distant second, Al Sharpton doesn't seem to be moving, and support for Don't Know seems to be shrinking.
...

Within the MoE in a what should be a strong Bush state. Not good news for Bush.  Then again, keep in mind that this poll was conducted by a Democratic organization.  Perhaps it is only a preview of how close 2004 is shaping up to be.

Too bad there's no job approval number in this Dem poll.
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #3 on: February 12, 2004, 10:54:30 PM »

HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA

Yea right.

I'm still waiting for the polls that show Kerry 17 points ahead of Bush, nationally.

Anyone hear Dukakis in the air....?
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Q
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« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2004, 11:04:53 PM »

Zachman and GWBfan, I don't think the true GA numbers are this close.  But I don't think Bush will have another landslide (55%+) here in Nov.

Like I said, I think the closeness of many of these state and national polls is more representative of the national deadlock the country is currently experiencing.

It may also mean that both Bush and the Dem will have to campaign more than their strategists would have liked in states that should be considered "safe" for them.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #5 on: February 12, 2004, 11:12:15 PM »

as I have said these polls mean nothing as Bush hasn't hardly scratched the surface on campaigning yet and dems have been for aover a year ( kerry declared in Dec 2002).

Hey GA guy, Dems find a worthy senate candidate yet?
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agcatter
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« Reply #6 on: February 12, 2004, 11:20:02 PM »

CNN/Time poll 4 days ago had Bush 50 Kerry 48.  I guarantee a national tie means Bush is far more ahead in Georgia than 3 pts.  2000 was a tie nationally and Bush won Georgia by 12 or 13.

However, who cares?  We're only hearing from one side so far - day after day after day.....  If after Bush has started firing back, Kerry is truly within 3 pts in a state like Georgia, then you have something.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #7 on: February 12, 2004, 11:21:09 PM »

as I have said these polls mean nothing as Bush hasn't hardly scratched the surface on campaigning yet and dems have been for aover a year ( kerry declared in Dec 2002).

Hey GA guy, Dems find a worthy senate candidate yet?

Yea, I know.  By the time Bush gets to open his mouth Kerry's numbers should be way better.  

Seriously, it seems like whenever GWB speaks, his approval goes down.  He was doing way better when he was out of the publics attention for awhile.  
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agcatter
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« Reply #8 on: February 12, 2004, 11:25:53 PM »

Yeah, keep thinking that.  The Kerry walk in the park is just about over.  He's actually going to get hit back.  No doubt Kerry's numbers will skyrocket when that happens.  Bahahahah
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opebo
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« Reply #9 on: February 13, 2004, 12:21:45 AM »

Personally I don't think this will mean Bush will need to spend significant money or time in Georgia by November.  A few commercials reminding Georgians about Massachucetts and gay marriage should produce the usual landslide.  I doubt Bush needs to even bother to visit the state to gaurantee a win.  Maybe send Cheney once.   The only reason to bother in GA will be to make sure the senate seat goes R.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #10 on: February 13, 2004, 01:25:59 AM »

If Bush wins Kentucky again, I will eat my hat.

You folks have absolutely no idea just how incredibly unpopular Bush is in Kentucky (especially Eastern Kentucky).
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opebo
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« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2004, 01:27:43 AM »

If Bush wins Kentucky again, I will eat my hat.

You folks have absolutely no idea just how incredibly unpopular Bush is in Kentucky (especially Eastern Kentucky).

I'd say KY is even more in Bush's pocket than GA.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #12 on: February 13, 2004, 01:30:00 AM »
« Edited: February 13, 2004, 01:30:25 AM by bandit73 »

I'd say KY is even more in Bush's pocket than GA.

Without widespread election fraud (which of course is a very real possibility) it ain't gonna happen. It just won't.
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MarkDel
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« Reply #13 on: February 13, 2004, 01:36:23 AM »
« Edited: February 13, 2004, 01:40:10 AM by MarkDel »

Bandit,

Let's put your money where you mouth is. You said "I'll eat my hat if Bush wins Kentucky again." OK, but would you bet $1,000? We'll find a neutral third party from this site who we both agree on and we each put up $1,000 cash, and if Bush wins Kentucky, I get the $2,000 and if Bush loses Kentucky, you get the $2,000.

Deal? That would have to be easier than eating your hat. I mean I'd hate to see you have to go to the hospital with intestinal problems after you ate your hat...I mean they might make you wear a school uniform in the hospital...LOL

You know I've been paying careful attention to some of your posts the past few weeks, and at the risk of sounding patronizing, I really think you need to see a mental health professional...seriously. Your rant on school uniforms was classic paranoia and now this Kentucky business with eating hats and fixed voting machines and your ranting Web Blog...seriously kid, go talk to someone.
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Bandit3 the Worker
bandit73
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« Reply #14 on: February 13, 2004, 01:40:00 AM »

Do you really think I'm someone who has $1,000 laying around? If I was, I'd probably be a Republican.

Also, the part about eating hats is just an expression. When someone says they'll eat their hat, they don't mean it literally.
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MarkDel
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« Reply #15 on: February 13, 2004, 01:43:21 AM »

Bandit,

Yes, I know you didn't really intend to eat your hat. It's called "sarcasm"

You know, a joke intended to illustrate how ludicrous your post was? I spent some time reading your Web Blog and I'm being really serious here Tim, you have some issues and maybe you should go talk to someone. Sorry if I'm out of line, but your "school uniform" rant was just a little too strange, and now this Web Blog...anyway, just think about what I said.
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sgpine
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« Reply #16 on: February 13, 2004, 10:51:26 AM »

Georgia uses Diebold Touch-Screen voting machines throughout the state. Thus, there is no chance that Bush loses in Georgia. :-/
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opebo
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« Reply #17 on: February 13, 2004, 01:07:15 PM »

Georgia uses Diebold Touch-Screen voting machines throughout the state. Thus, there is no chance that Bush loses in Georgia. :-/

Oh, these machines are part of a vote-fraud plan?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #18 on: February 13, 2004, 03:33:21 PM »

as I have said these polls mean nothing as Bush hasn't hardly scratched the surface on campaigning yet and dems have been for aover a year ( kerry declared in Dec 2002).

Hey GA guy, Dems find a worthy senate candidate yet?

I don't know how many times i have to say this. These polls show, a) Bush is much less popular than we thought and b) the Democrats have a real chance. It appears that a great deal of people are ready to vote against Bush. That doesn't mean that they will on election day, but it shows potential that I didn't think existed. So this poll shows that GA COULD be close, not that it will on election day.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #19 on: February 13, 2004, 04:08:43 PM »

No he'll have Zell(D-GA) running around GA for him.


Personally I don't think this will mean Bush will need to spend significant money or time in Georgia by November.  A few commercials reminding Georgians about Massachucetts and gay marriage should produce the usual landslide.  I doubt Bush needs to even bother to visit the state to gaurantee a win.  Maybe send Cheney once.   The only reason to bother in GA will be to make sure the senate seat goes R.

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zachman
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« Reply #20 on: February 13, 2004, 04:24:45 PM »

I don't think Bush needs to worry about Georgia, but he does need to understand that the vast majority of those not in his tent can not be persuaded by an endorsement. If Bush trys to say, "I'm even popular among outstanding democrats like Zell Miller," he will be hated even more.

This is not 2000, when independents were iffy about Gore, and retaliated by voting against him. Kerry is not a weak democrat like Gore and will have more devout supporters.
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sgpine
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« Reply #21 on: February 13, 2004, 05:09:56 PM »

Georgia uses Diebold Touch-Screen voting machines throughout the state. Thus, there is no chance that Bush loses in Georgia. :-/

Oh, these machines are part of a vote-fraud plan?


Well the CEO of Diebold has written that he's committed to making sure the Electoral Votes of Ohio go to Bush (he's from Ohio, and one of Bush's 'pioneer' fundraisers).

Diebold's website and software has been "hacked" (when I say hacked, I mean that their FTP site was available without a password to any old person who wanted to access it, and a couple people did and downloaded the source code and internal e-mails).

The findings: The software Diebold uses to record votes is not password protected (it uses Microsoft Access). Thus, an operator at Diebold could recieve the vote totals from the precients, chance the totals with Access, and then send them along, and there is no record that anything happened. Diebolds touchscreen machines provide no paper trail.

Diebold, on more than one occasion, demonstrated one machine to get certified by the state, and then used a different, uncertified version come election day, using versions that they were debugging days before the election.

When downloading the source code, the "hacker" found a folder called "Robgeorgia". There is no one named "Rob" who works at Diebold assosiated with the Georgia vote.

For a time in the 2000 election, one precienct in Flordia recorded a vote total for Al Gore of -60,000. (no, not 60,000 less than he was supposed to have, but literally NEGATIVE votes). This is what led the news agencies to call Flordia for Bush prematurely. This mistake was then caught and fixed, at which point the news agencies withdrew their calling of the race, but who knows what other problems there were.

The results from voter precients have been transmitted to the main database via cellphone (so secure).

The results of a California election were available on the Diebold website at one point before the polls closed, even though it is illegal for the votes from precients to be sent to the main database before the polls closed.

So no, I don't have much faith in Diebold
www.blackboxvoting.org

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MarkDel
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« Reply #22 on: February 13, 2004, 06:39:01 PM »

Sgpine,

Yeah, and The Black Helicopters are everywhere, we just can't see them.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #23 on: February 13, 2004, 09:37:19 PM »

Nothing to do with Conspiracy Theories.
Even The Economist has run a story on the simple fact that there's no more problematic and easier-forgeable election machinery currently existing in the world than touchscreen, and that it's been boosted largely because the Republicans have been payed for it by the makers of this machinery. (I think they were wording it more cautiously, I read it some weeks ago, but that's the general gist).
If you're a legislator and you wanna make sure there's no election fraud, there's no way you're going to allow anything but paper ballots used. They're introducing voting machines here in India now, and they seem to know why: No more need to "capture" polling stations!

PS Yes, I know that paper ballots have one major drawback in the US: Because there are so many elections held at the same time, it would take quite long til the less important ones have been counted. It is a serious problem. I know.
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zachman
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« Reply #24 on: February 13, 2004, 10:30:37 PM »

And MarkDel the Republican party does have a history of committing fraudulent election practices. What swung Florida to Bush last time was a republican led tactic to put flyers on cars in minority neighborhoods. These flyers encouraged voters to vote on the day after election day.

Don't you try to mislead us MarkDel with your nasty exaggerations, and lies about the war. You are quite a tough pundit and could probably write scripts for the worst talking head of the right- Bob Novak.
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