Is the district that Smith represents now pretty much the same one that Pallone won in 1988 and 1990?
The district that Pallone won in 1988 was a largely vertical Republican district (that never elected a Republican) that ran along the coast of Monmouth and down into the northern part of Ocean.
Chris Smith's current district is a largely horizontal district that takes up the Republican parts of Mercer County (Hamilton Twp), the northern tip of Burlington, and then out to the northern part of Ocean.
Smith's district looks quite similar to the one he won in the 1980s. Redistricting simply took out Trenton and added the southern tip of Pallone's district. Pallone's old district was essentially eliminated in the 1990 redistricting process—today's NJ-06 looks like the NJ-06 of 1980s, which was mostly urban Middlesex county.
Was Pallone's election in 1988 an upset? I know most people viewed that as a basically Republican seat. Ronald Reagan carried it 67%-33% in 1984 and H.W. carried it 62%-37% at the same time Pallone was being elected.
Yes. Pallone's State Senate win was an upset, Pallone's House win was an upset, and Pallone's survival through the 90s redistricting round was an "upset." Save for maybe Chris Smith, no NJ congressman has had to work harder to keep his seat.
