CARLHAYDEN
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Posts: 10,638
Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51
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« on: August 16, 2004, 12:39:47 AM » |
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There is a very simple reason for Zogby being good in 2000, and lousy in subsequent elections.
In 2000, the electorate was skewed Democrat as the result of a very effective activation effort by the DNC, the Gore campaign and its affiliatiates.
The funding for that effort went back as far as 1996, with initial research in 1996, and initial implementation in 1998 (when Democrats did better than historical models or expectations due to a Democrat skewed electorate due to an effective activation effort in several states).
The money and the organization ran out, and has not been rebuilt.
However, the Bush campaign learned from 2000 and put money and effort into their own activation effort, which should skew the electorate in a Republican direction this year.
Zogby is still assuming the electorate of 2004 will mirror the electorate of 2000.
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