ABC/WaPo: Clinton +1 in TX, +7 in OH
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  ABC/WaPo: Clinton +1 in TX, +7 in OH
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +1 in TX, +7 in OH  (Read 1986 times)
Verily
Cuivienen
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« on: February 21, 2008, 05:52:38 PM »

http://thepage.time.com/abc-newswashpost-texas-and-ohio-poll-details/

Texas
Clinton: 48
Obama: 47

Ohio
Clinton: 50
Obama: 43
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Thomas Jackson
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« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2008, 06:32:49 PM »

That's not enough for her. Not even close. These numbers hold, Obama is the nominee Come March 4.
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Person Man
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« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2008, 06:34:05 PM »

That's not enough for her. Not even close. These numbers hold, Obama is the nominee Come March 4.
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© tweed
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« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2008, 06:40:23 PM »

if Clinton wins both (or either), even by the most miniscule of margins, she is going to press on to Pennsylvania.  I only think she drops out if she gets swept (which is possible but unlikely; maybe, 20%.)
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Thomas Jackson
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« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2008, 06:54:01 PM »

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She'll continue on under any circumstance IMO, after all, in her mind she "Deserves it." Her entire life has been built upon this and it is slipping from her grasp. Like the cold hearted witch she is, she won't give it up easily.

However, continuing on would be futile unless she manages to put up HUGE margins in BOTH Ohio and Texas. There isn't going to be enough to save her, especially when you factor in that Obama is likely to win several more states smaller States and North Carolina which has quite a few delegates.

The win in North Carolina alone (Which will likely be rather large) would erase any big gains Hillary! might make in Pennsylvania.

As I said, a 1% win in Texas and a 7% win in Ohio isn't nearly enough for her.

She still might try to steal the nomination though.

After all, she believes she "Deserves it."
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2008, 06:54:55 PM »

if Clinton wins both (or either), even by the most miniscule of margins, she is going to press on to Pennsylvania.  I only think she drops out if she gets swept (which is possible but unlikely; maybe, 20%.)

More like 35-40% I'd say. Texas looks like a goner. Maybe she hangs on narrowly in Ohio, maybe not.
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exopolitician
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« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2008, 07:00:57 PM »

if Clinton wins both (or either), even by the most miniscule of margins, she is going to press on to Pennsylvania.  I only think she drops out if she gets swept (which is possible but unlikely; maybe, 20%.)

Its not even looking good for her in Pennsylvania. If she loses all three or cant even break away to a 10 point margin in any of the states then she'll drop out.
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© tweed
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« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2008, 08:24:57 PM »

if Clinton wins both (or either), even by the most miniscule of margins, she is going to press on to Pennsylvania.  I only think she drops out if she gets swept (which is possible but unlikely; maybe, 20%.)

More like 35-40% I'd say. Texas looks like a goner. Maybe she hangs on narrowly in Ohio, maybe not.

she is winning in every poll.  how is it a 'goner'?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2008, 08:29:07 PM »
« Edited: February 21, 2008, 08:30:50 PM by Eraserhead »

if Clinton wins both (or either), even by the most miniscule of margins, she is going to press on to Pennsylvania.  I only think she drops out if she gets swept (which is possible but unlikely; maybe, 20%.)

More like 35-40% I'd say. Texas looks like a goner. Maybe she hangs on narrowly in Ohio, maybe not.

she is winning in every poll.  how is it a 'goner'?

Look at the trend. I can't think of anything that would stop his movement unless she kills him in the debate or something.
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agcatter
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« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2008, 10:37:11 PM »
« Edited: February 21, 2008, 10:38:59 PM by agcatter »

I think some of you are missing the point.  Winning Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania narrowly doesn't help Hillary in the slightest. 

Obama leads Hillary by 160 committed delegates.

Narrow wins in the three big states nets her 35 delegates and that's being generous especially with the Texas delegate apportionment system.

Obama will come close to recapturing that many with wins where he's favored in Oregon, NC, Mississippi, Vermont, SD, Montana

Wins by Hillary in Kentucky, W. Virginia, RI, and even Indiana maybe nets  her another 35

Anyway you slice it, Obama goes into the convention with over a 100 pledged delegate lead.

No way in hell the super delegates overturn that lead.  They won't do that.  Narrow wins in the big three states won't even allow her to overtake him in the total popular vote.  He's up approx one million votes right now.

Obama wins.  It's over.
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Boris
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« Reply #10 on: February 21, 2008, 10:40:59 PM »

I think some of you are missing the point.  Winning Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania narrowly doesn't help Hillary in the slightest. 

Obama leads Hillary by 160 committed delegates.

Narrow wins in the three big states nets her 35 delegates and that's being generous especially with the Texas delegate apportionment system.

Obama will come close to recapturing that many with wins where he's favored in Oregon, NC, Mississippi, Vermont, SD, Montana

Wins by Hillary in Kentucky, W. Virginia, RI, and even Indiana maybe nets  her another 35

Anyway you slice it, Obama goes into the convention with over a 100 pledged delegate lead.

No way in hell the super delegates overturn that lead.  They won't do that.  Narrow wins in the big three states won't even allow her to overtake him in the total popular vote. 

Obama wins.  It's over.

I don't think Clinton's strategy is to overtake Obama in pledged delegates, but to rather overtake Obama in the "primary popular vote." That way, she can claim the delegate apportionment system is undemocratic or whatever and persuade the super delegates not to "overturn the will of the people."
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« Reply #11 on: February 21, 2008, 10:44:53 PM »

I think some of you are missing the point.  Winning Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania narrowly doesn't help Hillary in the slightest. 

Obama leads Hillary by 160 committed delegates.

Narrow wins in the three big states nets her 35 delegates and that's being generous especially with the Texas delegate apportionment system.

Obama will come close to recapturing that many with wins where he's favored in Oregon, NC, Mississippi, Vermont, SD, Montana

Wins by Hillary in Kentucky, W. Virginia, RI, and even Indiana maybe nets  her another 35

Anyway you slice it, Obama goes into the convention with over a 100 pledged delegate lead.

No way in hell the super delegates overturn that lead.  They won't do that.  Narrow wins in the big three states won't even allow her to overtake him in the total popular vote. 

Obama wins.  It's over.

I don't think Clinton's strategy is to overtake Obama in pledged delegates, but to rather overtake Obama in the "primary popular vote." That way, she can claim the delegate apportionment system is undemocratic or whatever and persuade the super delegates not to "overturn the will of the people."

Which is basically impossible to calculate because of caucuses, how some are tallied, and systems like Washington and Texas. It's meaningless. Also Hillary's superdelegate lead is mostly because of bandwagon jumpers who endorsed her back when she was "inevitable". Will that last now?
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agcatter
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« Reply #12 on: February 21, 2008, 10:57:02 PM »

Like I said, narrow wins in the big three states won't be enough for Hillary to take the lead in the overall popular vote.  She would need big wins in those states to do that.  She just doesn't have any leverage to get the super delegates to break to her.
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Person Man
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« Reply #13 on: February 21, 2008, 11:04:21 PM »

What do you mean by big wins?
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #14 on: February 21, 2008, 11:05:19 PM »

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/hendrikhertzberg/2008/02/hillarys-challe.html

Solid article about how Clinton will probably be unable to win the popular vote.
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Boris
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« Reply #15 on: February 21, 2008, 11:07:05 PM »

Which is basically impossible to calculate because of caucuses, how some are tallied, and systems like Washington and Texas. It's meaningless. Also Hillary's superdelegate lead is mostly because of bandwagon jumpers who endorsed her back when she was "inevitable". Will that last now?

Hence the "primary popular vote" in quotations. But in the event of Clinton winning the primary (not the caucus) votes, I'm sure they could come up with some skewed formula that indicates more people voted for her than Obama. But that's tenuous at best. So what is their strategy then? Clinton's team knows they can't overtake Obama in terms of pledged delegates. They know that the nomination will be decided by the Super Delegates, who will already be reluctant to overturn the pledged delegate counts. They obviously can't claim that Clinton is the most electable candidate.

Apparently, Mark Penn must know something we don't. Sad

Like I said, narrow wins in the big three states won't be enough for Hillary to take the lead in the overall popular vote.  She would need big wins in those states to do that.  She just doesn't have any leverage to get the super delegates to break to her.

Yes, obviously they would need double-digit wins in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania to take the lead. Which could then translate into momentum and perhaps Hillary taking the lead in the national polls among Democrats. Or they might be counting on an Obama screwup at a debate or maybe hoping for some sort of scandal to hit him. Who knows? 
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« Reply #16 on: February 21, 2008, 11:11:30 PM »

Apparently, Mark Penn must know something we don't. Sad

Or Hillary is just f**ked.
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