Clinton: 46%
Obama: 45%
Undecided: 9%
Clinton now has a five point advantage among women but trails by seven among men. Both those figures are down from the previous survey. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of the sample for this poll are women. That’s up from 52% in the earlier survey, largely because more women expressed a higher likelihood of voting.
Clinton leads among voters 50 and older (51% of the sample). She does especially well among those who are over 65 while Obama carries the day with voters under 50.
Twenty-nine percent (29%) say they have already voted and Obama leads handily among this group.
Clinton is viewed favorably by 78% of the state’s voters while Obama is viewed favorably by 72%. That’s a change from last week when Obama earned the higher favorability ratings. Among those who remain undecided, Clinton earns favorably reviews from 65%, Obama from 56%.
Seventy-nine percent (79%) say that Clinton is at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. Seventy-eight percent (78%) say the same about Obama.
The current survey projects a slightly smaller turnout from Hispanic voters (26%, down from 31%) and a very slight increase among African-American voters (21% up from 19%). It is impossible to project exactly who will show up and vote in a Primary. Rasmussen Reports analyzed a variety of turnout models and found plausible results ranging from a two-point Obama lead to a five-point Clinton lead.
This telephone survey of 646 Likely Democratic Primary Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports February 24, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
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