Your opinion on Texas on March 4 and on November 4

[Joe Biden 2020]

The latest polls have Obama slightly ahead of Clinton in Texas going into Tuesday's hybrid primary/caucus.  Do you expect Obama to go on to "upset" Clinton in Texas?  I call it an upset, because she was ahead coming right out of the Wisconsin primaries two weeks ago.

I know Texas will go Republican in November barring a national Democratic landslide, but what do you think the margin of victory will be for McCain?  My feeling is it will be closer than 2004.

[ottermax]

Probably closer because Bush won't be the Republican nominee. I can also see a massive turn out among Blacks if Obama is the candidate.

[jesmo]

The Bush skew effect may be slightly overrated.  When all is said and done, Bush probably added exactly 3 to 5 points to the Texas Republican voting total.

Hillary Clinton will win a slight majority in the primary, but Obama will likely win the caucus by a pretty good margin.  McCain will defeat Huckabee on the Republican side, but Huckabee should do a bit better then he "normally" does.

2008 Texas

Hillary Clinton (D) - 44%
John McCain (R) - 55%

Barack Obama (D) - 40%
John McCain (R) - 57%

or something like that.

[Flying Dog]

60-40 for Hillary vs McCain
58-42 for Obama

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I wouldn't be surprised if Barack Obama wins the Texas Primary on March 4, however I think Hillary will win by the narrowest of margins. I also think that on March 4, she'll win Ohio also by the narrowest of margins and Obama will pick-up Rhode Island and Vermont.

Texas will be closer than in past elections. We know Senator McCain will still win Texas but I'm expecting a 1988 margin of victory to McCain, despite no Texan is likely to appear on the Democratic ticket.

[jesmo]

60-40 for Hillary vs McCain
58-42 for Obama

Contrary to popular belief, there are many states where Hillary Clinton could outperform Barack Obama, Texas is definately one of them.

[Stranger in a strange land]

60-40 for Hillary vs McCain
58-42 for Obama

Contrary to popular belief, there are many states where Hillary Clinton could outperform Barack Obama, Texas is definately one of them.

um, no. Texans HATE Hillary, and not just the Republicans.

However, there are states, particularly WV, KY, AR, OK, TN, and maybe MO (ie the border/outer south states) where Hillary definately would outperform Obama.

[jesmo]

60-40 for Hillary vs McCain
58-42 for Obama

Contrary to popular belief, there are many states where Hillary Clinton could outperform Barack Obama, Texas is definately one of them.

um, no. Texans HATE Hillary, and not just the Republicans.

However, there are states, particularly WV, KY, AR, OK, TN, and maybe MO (ie the border/outer south states) where Hillary definately would outperform Obama.

I disagree, I am very certain that Hillary would outperform Obama in Texas.

Now you are correct about West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, those states will definately be friendlier to Hillary then Barack Obama, and maybe one or two of those states COULD switch to her.  Missouri would probably be about the same regardless of if it is Hillary or Obama.

[The Mikado]

Obama will win more delegates.  Don't know about popular vote.

My prediction: McCain 55 Obama 43 Other (mostly Libertarian) 2

[Joe Biden 2020]

60-40 for Hillary vs McCain
58-42 for Obama

Contrary to popular belief, there are many states where Hillary Clinton could outperform Barack Obama, Texas is definately one of them.

um, no. Texans HATE Hillary, and not just the Republicans.

However, there are states, particularly WV, KY, AR, OK, TN, and maybe MO (ie the border/outer south states) where Hillary definately would outperform Obama.

I disagree, I am very certain that Hillary would outperform Obama in Texas.

Now you are correct about West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, those states will definately be friendlier to Hillary then Barack Obama, and maybe one or two of those states COULD switch to her.  Missouri would probably be about the same regardless of if it is Hillary or Obama.

Hillary will bring Texas closer, as would Obama, but it will still give McCain a sizeable win, though not as big as 2004.  Any of those states you mentioned could become a LOT closer if Clinton wins the nod and a couple of them could switch.  They would also be closer if Obama wins, but all of them would likely stay Republican, save for MAYBE Arkansas and thats a BIG maybe.

[jesmo]

60-40 for Hillary vs McCain
58-42 for Obama

Contrary to popular belief, there are many states where Hillary Clinton could outperform Barack Obama, Texas is definately one of them.

um, no. Texans HATE Hillary, and not just the Republicans.

However, there are states, particularly WV, KY, AR, OK, TN, and maybe MO (ie the border/outer south states) where Hillary definately would outperform Obama.

I disagree, I am very certain that Hillary would outperform Obama in Texas.

Now you are correct about West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, those states will definately be friendlier to Hillary then Barack Obama, and maybe one or two of those states COULD switch to her.  Missouri would probably be about the same regardless of if it is Hillary or Obama.

Hillary will bring Texas closer, as would Obama, but it will still give McCain a sizeable win, though not as big as 2004.  Any of those states you mentioned could become a LOT closer if Clinton wins the nod and a couple of them could switch.  They would also be closer if Obama wins, but all of them would likely stay Republican, save for MAYBE Arkansas and thats a BIG maybe.

Barack Obama could win Arkansas, Hillary Clinton would have a better chance.

Something political junkies forget is that 2004 is not a blue print for every future election. US Elections have wild swings, and we must not forget that.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama's ceiling, short of a landslide, is like 43%.

So, 55% McCain to 43% Obama or so.

I do think that Obama would be stronger in Texas than Clinton.

[agcatter]

Given the overwhelmingly lopsided advertising advantage Obama has had over Hillary over the last two weeks the upset will be if Hillary wins Tuesday or even runs within a point or two.  Either way Obama takes the majority of delegates.

In November I'd say 58-41 or something close.  McCain probably won't break 60.  Hillary would run slightly better than Obama because I think the Hispanic vote won't be quite as strong for Obama as it would be for Hillary.  However, obama might run a little better than Hillary among blacks.  Even then, how much better can he do than the 90-10 split the Dem nominee comes away with during every election?  Oh yeah, and Hillary will run a little stronger with blue collar and rural white Democrats.  Some think Obama will do better with Republicans than Hillary but in a general election I think that's pie in the sky stuff for Obama.

Oklahoma, Kentucky, Tennessee, W Virginia - Hillary would run 10 pts better than Obama but so what.  Those states would be unwinnable with whoever the Dem nominee is.  Not a problem electoral vote wise.

[perdedor]

I project an Obama win in Texas, something in the ball park of 52-48. In the general, either candidate would pull 40-45% for different reasons.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I think Hillary narrowly wins Texas and in the general, it would be something like 59-40 in a McCain Obama race and 56-44 in a McCain Clinton race. Hillary would outperform Obama there, as well as other southern states like Tennessee, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Kentucky.

[Flying Dog]

  Hillary would run slightly better than Obama because I think the Hispanic vote won't be quite as strong for Obama as it would be for Hillary.  However, obama might run a little better than Hillary among blacks.  Even then, how much better can he do than the 90-10 split the Dem nominee comes away with during every election? 

He'll do better based on turnout. He could get 90-10 if only ten blacks voted or 90-10 if 1,000,000 blacks voted.

[agcatter]

If Hillary still wins the Texas primary it means Obama has some problems.  As my Texas colleagues on the board will attest, Hillary is being outspent 10 to 1 and in the last week has had no political ads running whatsoever.  obama is on nonstop around the clock.

As far as black turnout jumping up in the general, yeah probably some but the black percentage in Texas isn't a very large chunk of the population.  There's not that big a number of which to increase.

[Democratic Hawk]

Given the overwhelmingly lopsided advertising advantage Obama has had over Hillary over the last two weeks the upset will be if Hillary wins Tuesday or even runs within a point or two.  Either way Obama takes the majority of delegates.

In November I'd say 58-41 or something close.  McCain probably won't break 60.  Hillary would run slightly better than Obama because I think the Hispanic vote won't be quite as strong for Obama as it would be for Hillary.  However, obama might run a little better than Hillary among blacks.  Even then, how much better can he do than the 90-10 split the Dem nominee comes away with during every election?  Oh yeah, and Hillary will run a little stronger with blue collar and rural white Democrats.  Some think Obama will do better with Republicans than Hillary but in a general election I think that's pie in the sky stuff for Obama.

Oklahoma, Kentucky, Tennessee, W Virginia - Hillary would run 10 pts better than Obama but so what.  Those states would be unwinnable with whoever the Dem nominee is.  Not a problem electoral vote wise.

I agree that the Hispanic vote would see Clinton run stronger against McCain than Obama; unless Obama performs surprisingly well among Hispanics on Tuesday - but Texas isn't going anywhere in November

In terms of a Democratic 'landslide', should the economy implode and/or the situation in Iraq deteriorates, drastically, Democrats will, at best, be looking at Bill Clinton-style 1992 type margin of victory. There are some states which would just not go Democratic and Texas is one of them. It could be relatively close but only if the winds are blowing strongly for the Democrat

That said, even were the winds in their favor, 2008 may not be another 1992 in the absence of a significant Independent or third-party candidacy

The electoral map in 2008, nevertheless, could be very different from what it was in 2000 and 2004 but, as of right now, there's no certainty as to who's favor. Much depends on events

Dave

[agcatter]

It's interesting that you stated that the electoral map could very well look different from the way it looked in 2000 and 2004.  Michael Barone had an article this morning saying that very thing.

[Democratic Hawk]

It's interesting that you stated that the electoral map could very well look different from the way it looked in 2000 and 2004.  Michael Barone had an article this morning saying that very thing.

There just seems as though there are going to be more dynamics and variables at work moving forward

Kerry's 'problem' in 2004 was that almost half of his vote was anti-Bush, rather than for him. It's difficult, as of now, to conceive either Obama or Clinton having that problem in 2008

By the same score, I can imagine your 'very conservatives' voting McCain but holding their noses while they do so given that, unlike with the Democrats, the GOP primary has, at least, until the nomination was essentially decided, been pretty much polarised along ideological lines. Problem for the 'very conservatives' being, that they found it too late for a candidate more to their liking to coalesce around

Polls had long suggested that from the early going that Democrats were content with their candidates; while, by comparison, Republicans were less keen. That has been reflected in primary and caucus turnout, and in red states as much as blue. Only in two states has the GOP turnout comprised a smaller percentage of the total Republican vote cast in the 2004 presidential, compared with Democratic turnout, Michigan and Florida, which, of course, were essentially uncontested by Democrats

Yet going into Super Tuesday, the GOP race was a wide open as the Democratic one since then, however, it has become clear that failing an upset to top all upsets that McCain will be the GOP nominee. Consequently, it was to be expected that GOP turnout, compared with Democratic turnout, would be well downmoving forward in the primaries but why so poor early in the game with everything to play for? The answer lies in the 'enthusiasm gap'

Once the Democratic primaries are concluded, I'll do a meta-analyis of just how by party and ideology Democratic primary voters broke for Obama and Clinton but as of right now, looking at the exit polls, there is nothing to suggest that Obama is sweeping the liberal Democratic primary vote with Clinton dominating the moderate and conservative Democratic primary vote. Its reasonably safe to suggest, however, that the more liberal caucus going-activists have broken heavily for Obama over Clinton

If I was a 'Republican', given not only the enthusiasm gap but also the fundraising gap, the former of which impacts on the latter, I'd be concerned. It doesn't necessarily follow, however, that such things won't 'even' out more as the general approaches

Dave