IL-14 implications

[Padfoot]

Will Obama's involvement in the Foster campaign coupled with Foster's ultimate victory have any sway on undecided superdelegates? 

[Keystone Phil]

No

[MarkWarner08]

No

Huh? Many superdelegates are public officials who care about local politics. While Foster's win is unlikely to push a Hillary support to the Obama camp, it could be enough for an undecided Rep. in a GOP-leaning area  to support Obama.

[Alcon]

Are there many more undecided delegates with reason to care about IL-14?

[Keystone Phil]

No

Huh? Many superdelegates are public officials who care about local politics. While Foster's win is unlikely to push a Hillary support to the Obama camp, it could be enough for an undecided Rep. in a GOP-leaning area  to support Obama.

Are there many more undecided delegates with reason to care about IL-14?

[Sam Spade]

I doubt it.

[Padfoot]

I'm harboring no delusions that this is going to create a massive wave of endorsements for Obama.  But this could be seen as a sign that Obama would be helpful to downticket races in GOP leaning districts and that is something superdelegates will probably be considering when they vote.

[Sam Spade]

I'm harboring no delusions that this is going to create a massive wave of endorsements for Obama.  But this could be seen as a sign that Obama would be helpful to downticket races in GOP leaning districts and that is something superdelegates will probably be considering when they vote.

Maybe, but first you need to be able to convince those superdelegates that there was *actually* cause and effect.

[Verily]

I'm harboring no delusions that this is going to create a massive wave of endorsements for Obama.  But this could be seen as a sign that Obama would be helpful to downticket races in GOP leaning districts and that is something superdelegates will probably be considering when they vote.

Maybe, but first you need to be able to convince those superdelegates that there was *actually* cause and effect.

I think at least some will see it that way. Obama did star in an ad for Foster. This might be worth 3-5 House endorsements and maybe a DNC member or two.

[MarkWarner08]

No

Huh? Many superdelegates are public officials who care about local politics. While Foster's win is unlikely to push a Hillary support to the Obama camp, it could be enough for an undecided Rep. in a GOP-leaning area  to support Obama.

Are there many more undecided delegates with reason to care about IL-14?

I think at least some will see it that way. Obama did star in an ad for Foster. This might be worth 3-5 House endorsements and maybe a DNC member or two.

[Mr.Phips]

I think this could probably push DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen into the Obama camp.  Obama also carried his Maryland district handily.  I would also look for some other freshmen Dems like possibly Harry Mitchell and Jerry McNerney who are in tough races to go to Obama. 

[Verily]

I think this could probably push DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen into the Obama camp.  Obama also carried his Maryland district handily.  I would also look for some other freshmen Dems like possibly Harry Mitchell and Jerry McNerney who are in tough races to go to Obama. 

Harry Mitchell has the tough proposition of being in Arizona this cycle all by itself. McNerney, though... very good chance.

[MarkWarner08]

I think this could probably push DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen into the Obama camp.  Obama also carried his Maryland district handily.  I would also look for some other freshmen Dems like possibly Harry Mitchell and Jerry McNerney who are in tough races to go to Obama. 

Harry Mitchell has the tough proposition of being in Arizona this cycle all by itself. McNerney, though... very good chance.

Mitchell will face a tough reelection battles, but he's not in imminent danger of defeat. Never forget that Mitchell is a demigod in Tempe; after he retired as mayor, the city built a statue in his honor.

The GOP field against Mitchell is also quite diffuse and weak, IIRC.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It will affect in that Foster becomes a superdelegate. There was a March 1 deadline but it can be waived and almost certainly will be:

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As the Democratic House caucus will accept Foster he will receive superdelegate status.

[Keystone Phil]

No

Huh? Many superdelegates are public officials who care about local politics. While Foster's win is unlikely to push a Hillary support to the Obama camp, it could be enough for an undecided Rep. in a GOP-leaning area  to support Obama.

Are there many more undecided delegates with reason to care about IL-14?

I think at least some will see it that way. Obama did star in an ad for Foster. This might be worth 3-5 House endorsements and maybe a DNC member or two.

Because he was in an ad...

Uh, sorry. My answer stays the same.

[Verily]

I think this could probably push DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen into the Obama camp.  Obama also carried his Maryland district handily.  I would also look for some other freshmen Dems like possibly Harry Mitchell and Jerry McNerney who are in tough races to go to Obama. 

Harry Mitchell has the tough proposition of being in Arizona this cycle all by itself. McNerney, though... very good chance.

Mitchell will face a tough reelection battles, but he's not in imminent danger of defeat. Never forget that Mitchell is a demigod in Tempe; after he retired as mayor, the city built a statue in his honor.

The GOP field against Mitchell is also quite diffuse and weak, IIRC.

Oh, I don't think so, but he may not want to be tied too closely to anyone opposing McCain nonetheless.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think this could probably push DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen into the Obama camp.  Obama also carried his Maryland district handily.  I would also look for some other freshmen Dems like possibly Harry Mitchell and Jerry McNerney who are in tough races to go to Obama. 

Harry Mitchell has the tough proposition of being in Arizona this cycle all by itself. McNerney, though... very good chance.

Mitchell will face a tough reelection battles, but he's not in imminent danger of defeat. Never forget that Mitchell is a demigod in Tempe; after he retired as mayor, the city built a statue in his honor.

The GOP field against Mitchell is also quite diffuse and weak, IIRC.

Oh, I don't think so, but he may not want to be tied too closely to anyone opposing McCain nonetheless.

McCain isn't really that popular in Arizona now. Napolitano is more popular in fact and polls showed she would beat him in a head to head race.

[Verily]

I think this could probably push DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen into the Obama camp.  Obama also carried his Maryland district handily.  I would also look for some other freshmen Dems like possibly Harry Mitchell and Jerry McNerney who are in tough races to go to Obama. 

Harry Mitchell has the tough proposition of being in Arizona this cycle all by itself. McNerney, though... very good chance.

Mitchell will face a tough reelection battles, but he's not in imminent danger of defeat. Never forget that Mitchell is a demigod in Tempe; after he retired as mayor, the city built a statue in his honor.

The GOP field against Mitchell is also quite diffuse and weak, IIRC.

Oh, I don't think so, but he may not want to be tied too closely to anyone opposing McCain nonetheless.

McCain isn't really that popular in Arizona now. Napolitano is more popular in fact and polls showed she would beat him in a head to head race.

I don't contest that... now. People will get excited about the home candidate. They always do, provided ideologically they fit well.

[MarkWarner08]

I think this could probably push DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen into the Obama camp.  Obama also carried his Maryland district handily.  I would also look for some other freshmen Dems like possibly Harry Mitchell and Jerry McNerney who are in tough races to go to Obama. 

Harry Mitchell has the tough proposition of being in Arizona this cycle all by itself. McNerney, though... very good chance.

Mitchell will face a tough reelection battles, but he's not in imminent danger of defeat. Never forget that Mitchell is a demigod in Tempe; after he retired as mayor, the city built a statue in his honor.

The GOP field against Mitchell is also quite diffuse and weak, IIRC.

Oh, I don't think so, but he may not want to be tied too closely to anyone opposing McCain nonetheless.

McCain isn't really that popular in Arizona now. Napolitano is more popular in fact and polls showed she would beat him in a head to head race.

I don't contest that... now. People will get excited about the home candidate. They always do, provided ideologically they fit well.

Which is why you should be worried about State Senate President Tim Bee beating Gabbie Giffords. The McCain effect is probably not enough to help a third tier recruit sink a popular incumbent like Mitchell.

[Sam Spade]

I think this could probably push DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen into the Obama camp.  Obama also carried his Maryland district handily.  I would also look for some other freshmen Dems like possibly Harry Mitchell and Jerry McNerney who are in tough races to go to Obama. 

Harry Mitchell has the tough proposition of being in Arizona this cycle all by itself. McNerney, though... very good chance.

Mitchell will face a tough reelection battles, but he's not in imminent danger of defeat. Never forget that Mitchell is a demigod in Tempe; after he retired as mayor, the city built a statue in his honor.

The GOP field against Mitchell is also quite diffuse and weak, IIRC.

Oh, I don't think so, but he may not want to be tied too closely to anyone opposing McCain nonetheless.

McCain isn't really that popular in Arizona now. Napolitano is more popular in fact and polls showed she would beat him in a head to head race.

I don't contest that... now. People will get excited about the home candidate. They always do, provided ideologically they fit well.

Which is why you should be worried about State Senate President Tim Bee beating Gabbie Giffords. The McCain effect is probably not enough to help a third tier recruit sink a popular incumbent like Mitchell.

This is probably the best post you have made all night.

[Eraserhead]

Probably won't have too much of an impact but it was certainly a good night for Obama on a few different levels.