Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
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Flying Dog
Jtfdem
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« Reply #625 on: March 04, 2008, 11:56:10 PM »

People are underestimating the power of Harris County. Obama has a 46,000 lead with 14% in.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #626 on: March 04, 2008, 11:56:26 PM »

It seems to me that Clinton managed to get a LOT out of this night. She's pulled Obama into exactly the kind of dirty, negative politics where she can probably beat him. He's beginning to sound defensive. Also, the news spin for her right now sounds incredible. There was an analyst on CNN just saying that the winner of PA will be the nominee! If he cannot pull out Texas Clinton may have a better chance than we thought.

They can say it on the media, but the delegate numbers will not bear it out. They can't crown Clinton after winning PA if Obama leads by 100 delegates on April 23.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #627 on: March 04, 2008, 11:56:58 PM »

We hear this speech every time. Ideals, change, change, hope, hope, I had nothing as a child blah blah hope change and transcend politics.
Meanwhile, McCain is somewhere in America, cursing at yet another Republican Senator who challenges the Great One.
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« Reply #628 on: March 04, 2008, 11:57:28 PM »

It seems to me that Clinton managed to get a LOT out of this night. She's pulled Obama into exactly the kind of dirty, negative politics where she can probably beat him. He's beginning to sound defensive. Also, the news spin for her right now sounds incredible. There was an analyst on CNN just saying that the winner of PA will be the nominee! If he cannot pull out Texas Clinton may have a better chance than we thought.

They can say it on the media, but the delegate numbers will not bear it out. They can't crown Clinton after winning PA if Obama leads by 100 delegates on April 23.

Ding.
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True Democrat
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« Reply #629 on: March 04, 2008, 11:57:55 PM »

Obama finally takes the lead in Cuyahoga County.
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Meeker
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« Reply #630 on: March 04, 2008, 11:58:02 PM »

I'm going to laugh heartily when Obama wins Texas
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #631 on: March 04, 2008, 11:58:10 PM »

Two things... first off, I think even most Democrats would admit that saying McCain wants to follow the same exact course as Bush is a blatant straw man... secondly, I am starting to realize that Obama always gives the same speech.


Blah Blah Blah hope.  Blah, Blah, Blah Change.

Yeah.  It includes a couple of parts where he goes "from _______ to _________" (citing two places or states).  Then he cites a few stories.  I mean, it's a good speech, but kind of empty.

You forgot the part where he blurts out a few random statements followed by "Yes we can."
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elcorazon
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« Reply #632 on: March 04, 2008, 11:58:53 PM »

while I agree obama's speeches are mostly the same.  I'd argue that the same is true of most politicians, particularly during a campaign where the facts on the ground don't change regularly.  Most people don't hear speech after speech anyway, so it's no surprise they'd keep using the parts that seem to be working.  You usually change your speech when the results are bad.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #633 on: March 04, 2008, 11:59:09 PM »

McCain supporters making fun of Obama's speeches? Hahahaha.

Prelim TX delegate estimate from The Field: Obama +6
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Gustaf
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« Reply #634 on: March 04, 2008, 11:59:53 PM »

Obama will not have such a lead if Clinton is crowned by the media.

Travis is up to 78%. I guess this will largely be Harris (14%) v El Paso (12%)?
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Meeker
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« Reply #635 on: March 05, 2008, 12:00:31 AM »

I guess this will largely be Harris (14%) v El Paso (12%)?

I'll take that fight any day
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War on Want
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« Reply #636 on: March 05, 2008, 12:01:33 AM »

Clinton will have no momentum. I do not see any Obama supporters or even undecided voters ever going for her.
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BRTD
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« Reply #637 on: March 05, 2008, 12:01:45 AM »

Obama will not have such a lead if Clinton is crowned by the media.

The media can't affect delegates already won.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #638 on: March 05, 2008, 12:01:54 AM »

Also Dallas. And Tarrant. And Jefferson.
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ag
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« Reply #639 on: March 05, 2008, 12:02:14 AM »

Obama will not have such a lead if Clinton is crowned by the media.

Travis is up to 78%. I guess this will largely be Harris (14%) v El Paso (12%)?

El Paso has been 28% for a while.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #640 on: March 05, 2008, 12:02:26 AM »

More El Paso.

If it came down to Harris v El Paso, Harris wins huge. But there are plenty of other large counties with lots left to report.
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True Democrat
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« Reply #641 on: March 05, 2008, 12:02:30 AM »

Obama will not have such a lead if Clinton is crowned by the media.

Travis is up to 78%. I guess this will largely be Harris (14%) v El Paso (12%)?

El Paso is now at 28%  However, Hidalgo and Cameron are still under 50%, so Clinton get add a few thousand votes to her lead from those two, along with San Antonio which is still only 55% in.  However, Obama will get big numbers from Harris (14% in), Dallas (54%), and Tarrant (36%).  It's going to be close, and at this point it's hard to predict.

There's also a bunch of random smaller counties that haven't reported that could affect the results.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #642 on: March 05, 2008, 12:03:13 AM »

Folks, in these big counties, we have no idea where the votes are left to be counted.  Harris County, for example, is so diverse, that future results could, quite frankly, be anything.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #643 on: March 05, 2008, 12:04:09 AM »

Obama will not have such a lead if Clinton is crowned by the media.

How will they give her delegates? She won't be within a hundred after today, and the two between now and PA are some of Obama's strongest: the blackest state and the least densely populated western state (a caucus).

She can make up ground in PA. But twenty net delegates there is pretty generous, and Obama should manage that in just MS and WY.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #644 on: March 05, 2008, 12:04:41 AM »

Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #645 on: March 05, 2008, 12:05:29 AM »

The white areas of Lucas County have finally reported to put Hillary back in front.
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BRTD
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« Reply #646 on: March 05, 2008, 12:06:02 AM »

Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.

You said Obama won't have a lead after Pennsylvania if the media crowns Hillary. There's no way she can catch up between now and Pennsylvania.
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J. J.
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« Reply #647 on: March 05, 2008, 12:07:42 AM »

It seems to me that Clinton managed to get a LOT out of this night. She's pulled Obama into exactly the kind of dirty, negative politics where she can probably beat him. He's beginning to sound defensive. Also, the news spin for her right now sounds incredible. There was an analyst on CNN just saying that the winner of PA will be the nominee! If he cannot pull out Texas Clinton may have a better chance than we thought.

They can say it on the media, but the delegate numbers will not bear it out. They can't crown Clinton after winning PA if Obama leads by 100 delegates on April 23.

No candidate can win without the Super Delegates.  Obama's argument that he has the majority of the elected delegates is weak, because he's not counting those from FL/MI, that are elected (if too early, according to the rules). 

Now, he has one argument to convince the super delegates:

He's more electable.

The results of Hillary's McCain-like (and McCain-lite) campaign today cast a shadow over that.  The fact that he close the deal, even though he outspent Hillary 3 to 1 casts a shadow over that.  The reported, on MSNBC, that 25% of Hillary's supporters say that they will support McCain over Obama casts a cloud over that.

This may come down to bare knuckle brawl in Denver.
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jesmo
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« Reply #648 on: March 05, 2008, 12:07:57 AM »

West Virginia and Pennslyvania are Hillary's ultimate firewalls.

Hopefully after those two, Obama can stay in Chicago forever.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #649 on: March 05, 2008, 12:08:10 AM »

Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.

You said Obama won't have a lead after Pennsylvania if the media crowns Hillary. There's no way she can catch up between now and Pennsylvania.

That's because super delegates would under that scenario flock to her. If he's forced out his delegate count may even drop to 0 Tongue

But seriously politics has a lot to do with appearances, especially with all those super delegates holding the balance of power.
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