Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic

[Verily]

The same numbers say that Obama supporters will back McCain, so I'm not sure how that argument works. Anyway, we'll see if the 50 extra supers Obama is rumored to have are true tomorrow.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.

You said Obama won't have a lead after Pennsylvania if the media crowns Hillary. There's no way she can catch up between now and Pennsylvania.

That's because super delegates would under that scenario flock to her. If he's forced out his delegate count may even drop to 0

But seriously politics has a lot to do with appearances, especially with all those super delegates holding the balance of power.

100 superdelegates will flock to Hillary between now and Pennsylvania?

[they don't love you like i love you]

It seems to me that Clinton managed to get a LOT out of this night. She's pulled Obama into exactly the kind of dirty, negative politics where she can probably beat him. He's beginning to sound defensive. Also, the news spin for her right now sounds incredible. There was an analyst on CNN just saying that the winner of PA will be the nominee! If he cannot pull out Texas Clinton may have a better chance than we thought.

They can say it on the media, but the delegate numbers will not bear it out. They can't crown Clinton after winning PA if Obama leads by 100 delegates on April 23.

No candidate can win without the Super Delegates.  Obama's argument that he has the majority of the elected delegates is weak, because he's not counting those from FL/MI, that are elected (if too early, according to the rules). 

Now, he has one argument to convince the super delegates:

He's more electable.

The results of Hillary's McCain-like (and McCain-lite) campaign today cast a shadow over that.  The fact that he close the deal, even though he outspent Hillary 3 to 1 casts a shadow over that.  The reported, on MSNBC, that 25% of Hillary's supporters say that they will support McCain over Obama casts a cloud over that.

This may come down to bare knuckle brawl in Denver.

You know you can keep copying and pasting the FL and MI crap all you like, it doesn't mean sh!t since the DNC doesn't agree with you.

And it's pretty obvious why MI's delegates shouldn't count, even if you can make a case for FL.

[Verily]

Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.

You said Obama won't have a lead after Pennsylvania if the media crowns Hillary. There's no way she can catch up between now and Pennsylvania.

That's because super delegates would under that scenario flock to her. If he's forced out his delegate count may even drop to 0

But seriously politics has a lot to do with appearances, especially with all those super delegates holding the balance of power.

You're missing the point. They can't crown a winner who trails, badly, in the pledged delegate count. And the superdelegates are not going to switch on "appearances"; they know enough of politics to understand that a lot of this is smoke and mirrors.

[Sam Spade]

Folks, this race is far from over.  Obama fumbled at the goal line yet again. 

Let's face facts, this is the greatest primary ever.  We're watching political history, just like we were at 2:00 AM Election night 2000.  Enjoy it.

I know this will be hard, but I am certainly do so.

[Meeker]

Hmm, some more Harris

[True Democrat]

Houston and Dallas starting to really come in, and Hillary's lead is shrinking, though not too quickly.

[Hammy]

it sickens me in ways that cant even be described to see republicans on here cheering for hillary because they think that will mean a mccain victory

i am seriously considering voting for hillary (and campaigning online and around where i live to my best ability) to spite all these ultraconservative fascists and hoping that mccain loses anyway so that they cant have their bush third term puppet

What's worse, wanting Hillary to win because she can be defeated or not voting for someone who shares their ideals? That's what it seems you will be doing if you do that.

i honestly have yet to find one single thing that i can agree with McCain on

[they don't love you like i love you]

Also the good streak for Hillary in the media likely ends tomorrow morning when the caucus comes in (then there's the rumor of Obama's fundraising + superdelegate bloc.)

[Хahar 🤔]

The media can do anythig it wants.

If they say Clinton is the new front-runner, then *poof*, she is.

[Alcon]

Major error in the Upshur County results.  Not that it matters much...

[Keystone Phil]

Also the good streak for Hillary in the media likely ends tomorrow morning when the caucus comes in (then there's the rumor of Obama's fundraising + superdelegate bloc.)

Yeah ok.

Hillary's three state comeback > Texas caucus results

[they don't love you like i love you]

Also the good streak for Hillary in the media likely ends tomorrow morning when the caucus comes in (then there's the rumor of Obama's fundraising + superdelegate bloc.)

Yeah ok.

Hillary's three state comeback > Texas caucus results

Not necessarily in delegates...

[they don't love you like i love you]

The media can do anythig it wants.

If they say Clinton is the new front-runner, then *poof*, she is.

Yeah well they said Giuliani was the frontrunner forever, up until Iowa basically.

[J. J.]

You know you can keep copying and pasting the FL and MI crap all you like, it doesn't mean sh!t since the DNC doesn't agree with you.

Hate to tell you this BRTD, but the DNC can seat those delegates.  It really depends on who has a bare majority on both the credentials committee and/or if Hillary (this time) can muster a majority of all delegates on the floor (not just the elected ones). 

The Democratic National Committee can even reverse the initial ruling.

It becomes a matter or raw votes.

[Gustaf]

Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.

You said Obama won't have a lead after Pennsylvania if the media crowns Hillary. There's no way she can catch up between now and Pennsylvania.

That's because super delegates would under that scenario flock to her. If he's forced out his delegate count may even drop to 0

But seriously politics has a lot to do with appearances, especially with all those super delegates holding the balance of power.

You're missing the point. They can't crown a winner who trails, badly, in the pledged delegate count. And the superdelegates are not going to switch on "appearances"; they know enough of politics to understand that a lot of this is smoke and mirrors.

That's a whole other argument. Should I interpret your changing the argument as you agreeing with me on what I said?

[Keystone Phil]

Also the good streak for Hillary in the media likely ends tomorrow morning when the caucus comes in (then there's the rumor of Obama's fundraising + superdelegate bloc.)

Yeah ok.

Hillary's three state comeback > Texas caucus results

Not necessarily in delegates...

I still think the major story/headlines will be "Clinton Comeback."

[Lief 🗽]

Momentum would be important if Pennsylvania was next week. It's not; it's in April. By the time Pennsylvania votes, any momentum from today will have been completely forgotten, and Obama will still have a 150+ delegate lead.

[they don't love you like i love you]

You know you can keep copying and pasting the FL and MI crap all you like, it doesn't mean sh!t since the DNC doesn't agree with you.

Hate to tell you this BRTD, but the DNC can seat those delegates.  It really depends on who has a bare majority on both the credentials committee and/or if Hillary (this time) can muster a majority of all delegates on the floor (not just the elected ones). 

The Democratic National Committee can even reverse the initial ruling.

It becomes a matter or raw votes.

Sure they can but they don't want to. And the math for Hillary to catch up in delegates not counting FL and MI is still quite daunting.

And you'd have to be a complete braindead hack to say there is no valid argument why Michigan should not be counted in the elected delegate total.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Momentum would be important if Pennsylvania was next week. It's not; it's in April. By the time Pennsylvania votes, any momentum from today will have been completely forgotten, and Obama will still have a 150+ delegate lead.

And Hillary has to eat two big losses before it.

[Gustaf]

I don't want this to appear like I'm showing an anti-Obama bias. I predicted things were over for Clinton. Hell, I predicted Obama would win Texas tonight. Just like I thought he was gonna win New Hampshire and California and Massachusetts. But I'm genuinely surprised by the media handling. It seems like Clinton is getting the opening she needed. Whether it's enough is another matter.

[Verily]

Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.

You said Obama won't have a lead after Pennsylvania if the media crowns Hillary. There's no way she can catch up between now and Pennsylvania.

That's because super delegates would under that scenario flock to her. If he's forced out his delegate count may even drop to 0

But seriously politics has a lot to do with appearances, especially with all those super delegates holding the balance of power.

You're missing the point. They can't crown a winner who trails, badly, in the pledged delegate count. And the superdelegates are not going to switch on "appearances"; they know enough of politics to understand that a lot of this is smoke and mirrors.

That's a whole other argument. Should I interpret your changing the argument as you agreeing with me on what I said?

Well, sort of. Yes, the media can affect the remaining races. But they won't crown a winner who trails in delegates, though they might say it now without thinking about it. And there are two other races between now and PA which will change the media narrative (Clinton Bump Elusive?).

[Keystone Phil]

Momentum would be important if Pennsylvania was next week. It's not; it's in April. By the time Pennsylvania votes, any momentum from today will have been completely forgotten, and Obama will still have a 150+ delegate lead.

She's going to get a comfortable victory here. It will be just like Ohio. She's going to have that momentum for awhile.

Momentum would be important if Pennsylvania was next week. It's not; it's in April. By the time Pennsylvania votes, any momentum from today will have been completely forgotten, and Obama will still have a 150+ delegate lead.

And Hillary has to eat two big losses before it.

Big losses? Wow. I've never heard Wyoming described as "big" in any sense. Whose spinning now?

[they don't love you like i love you]

Momentum would be important if Pennsylvania was next week. It's not; it's in April. By the time Pennsylvania votes, any momentum from today will have been completely forgotten, and Obama will still have a 150+ delegate lead.

And Hillary has to eat two big losses before it.

Big losses? Wow. I've never heard Wyoming described as "big" in any sense. Whose spinning now?

Big in terms of the margin. Wyoming's not a big state but neither is Iowa or New Hampshire.

[Meeker]

Chuck Todd says that we may not have Texas caucus results until this weekend or next week, he may have been joking however, I couldn't tell