Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:51:07 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2008 Elections
  Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 25 26 27 28 29 [30] 31 32 33 34
Author Topic: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic  (Read 55853 times)
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,547


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #725 on: March 05, 2008, 12:49:38 AM »

Another thing - if I had to guess at this moment, I wouldn't be surprised if my Hillary +3 prediction in Texas nails it...  Unless the missing areas are blacks or upper-income whites.  Hillary's been gaining a good bit in the same-day voting numbers almost everywhere.

So ARG is right too?

As I said before, a broken clock is right twice a day.  My prediction also jives with Zogby.  I made it before both of them

I said the end of the world was at hand - you didn't believe me.  Now comes 1000 years of darkness for Minneapolis.
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #726 on: March 05, 2008, 12:50:33 AM »

Chuck Todd on MSNBC is saying that even if Clinton's 2 point lead in TX holds up, his best guess (because of the particular districts where each candidate won) is that Obama nets about 3-4 delegates just from the *primary* contest in TX....this doesn't count what happens in the TX caucus, which we don't know about yet.
The SoS is showing Clinton up 64-62 on the primary delegates.  She is also up 55%:44% in election day voting.  You have people who voted early two weeks ago, who you're going to try to get to come back on a cold night to a different place than where they voted the first time.  Those who voted late on election day can just stick around for the caucus.

Not actually true, as the caucuses were in different locations from the primaries. And I was under the impression (haven't checked myself) that it was Obama who led 64-62 in delegates.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #727 on: March 05, 2008, 12:51:29 AM »

CNN calls it.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #728 on: March 05, 2008, 12:51:37 AM »

Another thing - if I had to guess at this moment, I wouldn't be surprised if my Hillary +3 prediction in Texas nails it...  Unless the missing areas are blacks or upper-income whites.  Hillary's been gaining a good bit in the same-day voting numbers almost everywhere.

So ARG is right too?

As I said before, a broken clock is right twice a day.  My prediction also jives with Zogby.  I made it before both of them

Obvious explanation: ARG & Zogby simply copied your prediction in their "polls".
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,612


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #729 on: March 05, 2008, 12:52:10 AM »

Clinton did better than I thought she would. She won Ohio by a fair amount, although not the sort of margin she needed to have any hope of catching up with pledged delegates. She won the Texas primary, and she's currently up 65-61 with their delegates. That net of 4 should be cancelled out by Obama's expected win in the caucus. She's looking stronger than before, but Obama is definitely still the front-runner, before she was looking like a joke.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,705
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #730 on: March 05, 2008, 12:56:41 AM »

Clinton did better than I thought she would. She won Ohio by a fair amount, although not the sort of margin she needed to have any hope of catching up with pledged delegates. She won the Texas primary, and she's currently up 65-61 with their delegates. That net of 4 should be cancelled out by Obama's expected win in the caucus. She's looking stronger than before, but Obama is definitely still the front-runner, before she was looking like a joke.

Wow, you're such a hack jFRAUD. [/Phil and J. J.]
Logged
jimrtex
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,828
Marshall Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #731 on: March 05, 2008, 12:57:33 AM »

Anyone (Sam especially), have a link to a map/list/something to help me out?

Click to Texasize


Logged
ag
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #732 on: March 05, 2008, 12:58:32 AM »

BTW, Webb has fully reported. So has Nueces.

So, what's left:

El Paso 54% reporting, 69%C
Hidalgo 47% reporting 73% C
Bexar 75% reporting 57%C

Dallas 71% reporting 62% O
Tarrant 71% reporting 54% O
Harrist 50% reporting 58% O
Travis 89% reporting 63% O

Am I missing anything big?

Overall, Clinton should win the PV here, but not by 70 thousand votes - I'd conjecture, it will be halved.
Logged
jesmo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 571


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #733 on: March 05, 2008, 12:59:17 AM »

Networks are calling Texas for Clinton. I would wait a bit personally.

Logged
The Man From G.O.P.
TJN2024
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #734 on: March 05, 2008, 01:00:55 AM »

You guys, the delegate results tonight are fairly unimportant, this is huge for Clinton, that much is obvious no matter who you support, she's not only not out of it, she's neck and neck and heading into territory very favorable to her.


Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #735 on: March 05, 2008, 01:01:43 AM »

Clinton did better than I thought she would. She won Ohio by a fair amount, although not the sort of margin she needed to have any hope of catching up with pledged delegates. She won the Texas primary, and she's currently up 65-61 with their delegates. That net of 4 should be cancelled out by Obama's expected win in the caucus. She's looking stronger than before, but Obama is definitely still the front-runner, before she was looking like a joke.

Wow, you're such a hack jFRAUD. [/Phil and J. J.]

No, you see, I applaud when people admit a defeat. You have yet to do so.
Logged
Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,983
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #736 on: March 05, 2008, 01:01:54 AM »

YES SHE WILL!
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,547


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #737 on: March 05, 2008, 01:02:20 AM »

Interesting election note: Democratic *primary election* turnout in Webb County was only 558 votes short of 2004 *general election* turnout.

Hillary pulled a Henry Cuellar.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #738 on: March 05, 2008, 01:03:15 AM »

What is "pulling a Henry Cuellar"?

What's with Obama only leading by 2% Cuyahoga?
Logged
jesmo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 571


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #739 on: March 05, 2008, 01:03:28 AM »


I agree entirely.

I use to really dislike Clinton and McCain, untill I saw the general axis of evil opposing them.

McCain, I still dislike more, due to illegal immigration.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #740 on: March 05, 2008, 01:04:48 AM »
« Edited: March 05, 2008, 01:07:23 AM by Alcon »

Caucus is interesting - Obama is doing fine save for low-population, highly Republican rural areas and the Hispanic counties, where he is getting absolutely obliterated.

31-0 in Zapata, 115-5 in Starr...
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #741 on: March 05, 2008, 01:05:22 AM »

A good night for Clinton.

Two more WY and MS.  MS should be safe Obama.  Bill is heading to WY.

Now, this was Obama's third chance to close the deal, and he couldn't do it.  That could be one of many factors that will convince the super delegates to stay uncommitted.  Welcome to the Keystone State one and all.
Logged
jimrtex
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,828
Marshall Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #742 on: March 05, 2008, 01:05:55 AM »

i am unbelievably hyped up about loving county, texas

Here's who they're loving:

Obama 7
Clinton 5
Edwards 5
Richardson 4
Dodd1
Biden 0

And 0 loving votes for the Republicans.
Loving doesn't hold a Republican primary since they elect the county officials in the primary.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,705
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #743 on: March 05, 2008, 01:06:18 AM »

Clinton did better than I thought she would. She won Ohio by a fair amount, although not the sort of margin she needed to have any hope of catching up with pledged delegates. She won the Texas primary, and she's currently up 65-61 with their delegates. That net of 4 should be cancelled out by Obama's expected win in the caucus. She's looking stronger than before, but Obama is definitely still the front-runner, before she was looking like a joke.

Wow, you're such a hack jFRAUD. [/Phil and J. J.]

No, you see, I applaud when people admit a defeat. You have yet to do so.

I completely agree with his post pretty much.
Logged
Aizen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,511


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -9.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #744 on: March 05, 2008, 01:06:27 AM »

What a terrible night. I got food poisoning or something from sushi causing me to keep throwing up and now Obama got his ass kicked by Hillary tonight. Ugh.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,705
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #745 on: March 05, 2008, 01:06:44 AM »


That settles it. WY = Safe Clinton.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #746 on: March 05, 2008, 01:07:02 AM »

I'm going to laugh heartily when Obama wins Texas

I don't know about you but I'm certainly enjoying a good laugh.

Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #747 on: March 05, 2008, 01:07:17 AM »

YES SHE DID! TONIGHT AT LEAST.
Logged
jesmo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 571


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #748 on: March 05, 2008, 01:07:51 AM »

A good night for Clinton.

Two more WY and MS.  MS should be safe Obama.  Bill is heading to WY.

Now, this was Obama's third chance to close the deal, and he couldn't do it.  That could be one of many factors that will convince the super delegates to stay uncommitted.  Welcome to the Keystone State one and all.

Mississippi and Wyoming should recover Obama somewhat. He is still the front runner Sad.

Obama could have distroyed Hillary in NH, Super Tuesday and today, and he stil did not do that.  Many people continue to have second thoughts about this Chicago clown.

J.J. please make sure Clinton wins PA. Thanks.

Logged
ag
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #749 on: March 05, 2008, 01:08:01 AM »

You guys, the delegate results tonight are fairly unimportant, this is huge for Clinton, that much is obvious no matter who you support, she's not only not out of it, she's neck and neck and heading into territory very favorable to her.


You are right and wrong. Both are important.

Clinton has, of course, shown viability. She will go on - and rightly so. 2% swing in Texas, even if it weren't significant in delegates, and she'd be much closer to being out of the race. PV victory is important.

Still, the delegate count is also hugely important: there is just too little left. In order to win the convention she'd have either to win with huge margins in remaining state races, or somehow pursuade the bulk of the remaining superdelegate to vote for her. There are just not enough of big states left, period. The laws of arithmetic are getting pretty bad for her.

Still, today is, unquestionably, her day: she survived to give another fight. She is still a heavy underdog, though.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 25 26 27 28 29 [30] 31 32 33 34  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.056 seconds with 13 queries.