Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic

[Sam Spade]

What is "pulling a Henry Cuellar"?

What's with Obama only leading by 2% Cuyahoga?

Getting ridiculously high turnout from Webb County in a low-turnout election.  See, e.g. 2002 midterms, 2004 and 2006 Dem primaries.

I thought you were a Kossack and would remember this. 

[J. J.]

Bill is heading to WY.

That settles it. WY = Safe Clinton.

No, but it might hold down an Obama lead.

[jesmo]

Bill is heading to WY.

That settles it. WY = Safe Clinton.

No, but it might hold down an Obama lead.

Wyoming is safe Obama.

[jimrtex]

Chuck Todd on MSNBC is saying that even if Clinton's 2 point lead in TX holds up, his best guess (because of the particular districts where each candidate won) is that Obama nets about 3-4 delegates just from the *primary* contest in TX....this doesn't count what happens in the TX caucus, which we don't know about yet.

The SoS is showing Clinton up 64-62 on the primary delegates.  She is also up 55%:44% in election day voting.  You have people who voted early two weeks ago, who you're going to try to get to come back on a cold night to a different place than where they voted the first time.  Those who voted late on election day can just stick around for the caucus.

Not actually true, as the caucuses were in different locations from the primaries. And I was under the impression (haven't checked myself) that it was Obama who led 64-62 in delegates.

It is now Clinton 65:61 on delegates.

The caucuses were at the same location as the polling places (which is not necessarily the same for both parties).  Early voting was at centralized locations.  For example, Harris County had 36 early voting locations, and you can vote at any one.  On election day, you have to vote in your election precinct's polling place.  There are 874 precincts, though there were only about 400 polling places for each party.

[Aizen]

If 11 straight wins couldn't deliver Texas or Ohio, how the HELL is Mississippi and Wyoming going to help deliver PA, a closed primary??

[they don't love you like i love you]

If 11 straight wins couldn't deliver Texas or Ohio, how the HELL is Mississippi and Wyoming going to help deliver PA, a closed primary??

It's not, but it could cancel out the delegates.

[Meeker]

I'm going to laugh heartily when Obama wins Texas

I don't know about you but I'm certainly enjoying a good laugh.

Yea, yea, yea - I thought about phrasing it so I could weasel out if I was wrong, but oh well, I'll eat my crow

[they don't love you like i love you]

My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

[Aizen]

 Hillary is not going to drop out after winning PA... This is going to go all the way to the convention. The Democrats are in serious trouble.

[MarkWarner08]

My primary vote (I'll register in Oregon before I move to Texas) may actually matter this year! Yay!

[jesmo]

Hillary is not going to drop out after winning PA... This is going to go all the way to the convention. The Democrats are in serious trouble.

I have no facts to back this up, but I have a feeling it will be Obama who drops out. Not now, of course, but in a matter of weeks.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What is "pulling a Henry Cuellar"?

Republicans voting for the most Republican candidate in the Democratic primary in Texas.

Hillary is not going to drop out after winning PA... This is going to go all the way to the convention. The Democrats are in serious trouble.

I have no facts to back this up, but I have a feeling it will be Obama who drops out. Not now, of course, but in a matter of weeks.

Maybe you should short him on InTrade. He's at 73.5%.

[ag]

If 11 straight wins couldn't deliver Texas or Ohio, how the HELL is Mississippi and Wyoming going to help deliver PA, a closed primary??

They won't. But after them, Clinton would have that much a tougher job catching up in delegates. Early on, momentum is everything. You don't care about NH delegates - you care about NH. Later, that's simply not the case: every delegate starts counting. And when PA comes, Obama will be able to afford loosing it narrowly - Clinton won't.

Still, once again, let me make clear: today is Clinton's day. She did what she had to. It might not be enough, but she is still in.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Hillary is not going to drop out after winning PA... This is going to go all the way to the convention. The Democrats are in serious trouble.

I have no facts to back this up, but I have a feeling it will be Obama who drops out. Not now, of course, but in a matter of weeks.

Obama's not going to drop out as long as he has a delegate lead. That'd be just ridiculous.

[Sam Spade]

What is "pulling a Henry Cuellar"?

Republicans voting for the most Republican candidate in the Democratic primary in Texas.

This is sig material.

[Keystone Phil]

My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.

[MarkWarner08]

What is "pulling a Henry Cuellar"?

Republicans voting for the most Republican candidate in the Democratic primary in Texas.

This is sig material.

Cuellar was the only Democrat in a contested primary who won the Club for Growth's endorsement...

[auburntiger]

My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.

I agree, and your governor is behind her too.

[ag]

While we were talking, the bulk of Harris Co. reported - and it didn't do anything for Obama (his absolute lead in the county remained at 50 thousand). Looks like Clinton will, actually, hold something like her current lead - 80 thousand, +- a bit.

[Sam Spade]

What is "pulling a Henry Cuellar"?

Republicans voting for the most Republican candidate in the Democratic primary in Texas.

This is sig material.

Cuellar was the only Democrat in a contested primary who won the Club for Growth's endorsement...

Look, the Kossacks never understood that area.  Looks like the Obamamites still don't understand it.

[they don't love you like i love you]

My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.

Rasmussen disagrees.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.

Rasmussen disagrees.

Isn't ARG the new gold standard?

[Keystone Phil]

My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.

Rasmussen disagrees.

LOL

Ok. Want me to name the other polls that had her up over ten points? By the way, those polls with Obama closing in mean nothing now. Easy win in OH = easy win in PA.

[they don't love you like i love you]

My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.

Rasmussen disagrees.

LOL

Ok. Want me to name the other polls that had her up over ten points? By the way, those polls with Obama closing in mean nothing now. Easy win in OH = easy win in PA.

You mean a bunch of uni polls? Yeah sure.