Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic

[jesmo]

Alright Obama folks, please restrain yourselves, and don't cause any riots tonight over the results.

Thanks.

[Keystone Phil]

My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.

Rasmussen disagrees.

LOL

Ok. Want me to name the other polls that had her up over ten points? By the way, those polls with Obama closing in mean nothing now. Easy win in OH = easy win in PA.

You mean a bunch of uni polls? Yeah sure.

Quinnipiac is a very reliable uni poll but don't worry. We'll have plenty of other polls showing her ahead comfortably and then you'll whine about those, too.

I can't wait to see the margins she runs up in the Pittsburgh, Erie and Scranton areas.

[they don't love you like i love you]

My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.

Rasmussen disagrees.

LOL

Ok. Want me to name the other polls that had her up over ten points? By the way, those polls with Obama closing in mean nothing now. Easy win in OH = easy win in PA.

You mean a bunch of uni polls? Yeah sure.

Quinnipiac is a very reliable uni poll but don't worry. We'll have plenty of other polls showing her ahead comfortably and then you'll whine about those, too.

I can't wait to see the margins she runs up in the Pittsburgh, Erie and Scranton areas.

The most recent Quinnipiac has her up only 6.

[J. J.]

I've looked at the CD's and the heaviest is 50% African American (but it keeps electing Bob Brady).  Most of even the 5  districts are heavily Caucasian.  PA is not Obama territory.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Delegate totals.

Obama wins VT 9-6
Clinton wins RI 13-8
Clinton is currently winning TX-P 65-61

I can't find good delegate estimates for OH or TX-C. Anyways, it looks like for the first time, she won the pledged delegates for all the states that voted a particular day. Of course Obama will win Wyoming and Mississippi.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Please note that my projection here has Hillary up in PA only 9 delegates based on a 10 point victory.

[Keystone Phil]

The most recent Quinnipiac has her up only 6.

And that was during the time when Obama was sweeping into the lead everywhere. Just wait until the next round of polling. I'm betting she's up at least ten.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Please note that my projection here has Hillary up in PA only 9 delegates based on a 10 point victory.

When are you taking the cartoon out of your signature?

[Sam Spade]

I've looked at the CD's and the heaviest is 50% African American (but it keeps electing Bob Brady).  Most of even the 5  districts are heavily Caucasian.  PA is not Obama territory.

I think you're missing Chaka Fattah's CD.  Aren't most of the whites in Brady's CD ethnics?  And isn't there a decent Puerto Rican population in Brady's CD too?

[they don't love you like i love you]

And in other places, like across Pennslyvania in the West, there were a lot of 3 Clinton delegates, 2 Obama delegates. With Clinton winning the state by 56%., the delegate split is 82 Clinton, 76 Obama, hardly an exciting firewall for Clinton.

So a Republican's projection is even worse for Hillary by mine with a double digit victory.

[they don't love you like i love you]

I've looked at the CD's and the heaviest is 50% African American (but it keeps electing Bob Brady).  Most of even the 5  districts are heavily Caucasian.  PA is not Obama territory.

I think you're missing Chaka Fattah's CD.  Aren't most of the whites in Brady's CD ethnics?  And isn't there a decent Puerto Rican population in Brady's CD too?

Might be trouble if it wasn't odd numbered in terms of delegates, I have it going 4-3.

[J. J.]

Obama's not going to drop out as long as he has a delegate lead. That'd be just ridiculous.

It might be a situation where, in July, Obama is told, "You have a majority of the elected delegates, but to keep that you'll have to disenfranchise FL and MI, if full view of the television cameras, in August."  Even if he wins, he loses.

Obama needs to get a 110 to 165 lead of elected delegates.  He can still do it, but it will be a long fight.

[J. J.]

I've looked at the CD's and the heaviest is 50% African American (but it keeps electing Bob Brady).  Most of even the 5  districts are heavily Caucasian.  PA is not Obama territory.

I think you're missing Chaka Fattah's CD.  Aren't most of the whites in Brady's CD ethnics?  And isn't there a decent Puerto Rican population in Brady's CD too?

Brady's CD has 9 delegates, Fattah's, the really big African American District, has 7.

I can actually see Clinton taking some of the 5 seat districts strongly enough to get 4 delegates.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Obama's not going to drop out as long as he has a delegate lead. That'd be just ridiculous.

It might be a situation where, in July, Obama is told, "You have a majority of the elected delegates, but to keep that you'll have to disenfranchise FL and MI, if full view of the television cameras, in August."  Even if he wins, he loses.

Obama needs to get a 110 to 165 lead of elected delegates.  He can still do it, but it will be a long fight.

1-The DNC doesn't agree with you.
2-Arguing that Hillary's lead in Michigan is legitimate is hackery of the worst type. For Florida there might be a point, but not Michigan.

On a side note, why have you not answered up for that nonsense you spewed about Wisconsin?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Please note that my projection here has Hillary up in PA only 9 delegates based on a 10 point victory.

If she wins between 50% and 58.3% of the two candidate vote, and it's uniform, she nets 13 district delegates. Winning by 10 points would net her 18 or 19 delegates.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Please note that my projection here has Hillary up in PA only 9 delegates based on a 10 point victory.

If she wins between 50% and 58.3% of the two candidate vote, and it's uniform, she nets 13 district delegates. Winning by 10 points would net her 18 or 19 delegates.

I have her winning by ten points in that.

[bgwah]

Hmm, a disappointing night...

But on the bright side, I might get full points for my predictions!

[Mr. Morden]

22% now reporting in the Texas caucus:

Obama 56%
Clinton 44%

[Meeker]

25%, now Obama 55-45

[jimrtex]

Obama potentially could come out with a delegate lead based on primary results alone in Texas.  There are 5 delegates that appear to be in play.

Current: Clinton 64 : Obama 62

In 4 delegate districts, a candidate needs 62.5% of the two-candidate total to get a 3:1 split.

SD 3 (East Texas) Clinton at 62.78% with 84% reported.

SD 15 (Northish Houston) Obama at 63.23% with 99.4%

SD 19 (S, W, and N SA and points west to El Paso) Clinton at 62.51% with 73% reported.

SD 26 (C San Antonio) Clinton at 62.26% with 75% reported (SoS just flipped this to a 2:2 split)

And then there is a 6-delegate district in S Dallas, where 75% will give the leader 5 delegates:

SD 23 (S Dallas) Obama at 73.98% with 47% reported.

[Keystone Phil]

Aren't most of the whites in Brady's CD ethnics?  And isn't there a decent Puerto Rican population in Brady's CD too?

Yes. Obama will win the district but Hillary will do very, very well among the whites in South Philly.

Please note that my projection here has Hillary up in PA only 9 delegates based on a 10 point victory.

When are you taking the cartoon out of your signature?

[Sam Spade]

Another note for tonight - The exit polls really sucked in Ohio and RI - way off.  Theories?  Well, RI was expected, but...

[they don't love you like i love you]

Please note that my projection here has Hillary up in PA only 9 delegates based on a 10 point victory.

When are you taking the cartoon out of your signature?

I've largely forgotten about it, but I'm not going to take it now and give you satisfaction for causing it.

[jimrtex]

It might be a situation where, in July, Obama is told, "You have a majority of the elected delegates, but to keep that you'll have to disenfranchise FL and MI, if full view of the television cameras, in August."  Even if he wins, he loses.

Obama needs to get a 110 to 165 lead of elected delegates.  He can still do it, but it will be a long fight.

1-The DNC doesn't agree with you.
2-Arguing that Hillary's lead in Michigan is legitimate is hackery of the worst type. For Florida there might be a point, but not Michigan.

Are you going to keep Granholm, Stabenow, Levin, Dingell, Bonior, Conyers, Kilpatrick, Hoffa, and a bunch of UAW members out?  That ought to make good theater.

[Sam Spade]

It is really too bad that the Texas result is going to be more like 4%-5%.  I was really hoping to get it exactly right.