Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic

[Sam Spade]

Multiple time zones:  El Paso (roughly) is 9:00 PM EST.  Rest of Texas is 8:00 PM EST.

[Sam Spade]

Most of the state closes at 9, El Paso closes at 10. Caucuses start shortly thereafter.

Bro, it's either 7:00 PM CST or 7:00 PM MST.  I did live there for 23 years. 

[Sam Spade]

Yep, 62-37 is the "early" exit poll number.  Not surprised here.

[Sam Spade]

They can't have that many voters up there.  What's taking them so long? 

[Sam Spade]

Finally, SW Vermont decides to give us some votes.

If I were in Texas, counties like Harris, Dallas, Tarrant and Travis are too multi-ethnic to read properly.  Bexar and El Paso are too Hispanic.  Hidalgo, Cameron and Webb are good counties for examining the Hispanic border.  It might be best to look at the GOP suburb counties like Collin, Montgomery, Williamson, Fort Bend.  I'm going to try and keep my eye on Beaumont/Port Arthur - racist whites vs. substantial black population.  Some of the east Texas counties too, like Smith (Tyler) would be fun also.

[Sam Spade]

Sam Spade (or someone else).... So what counties to watch for in Ohio and Texas that may give an indication?

Eastern Texas is all I know, thats the swing part of the state.

The Panhandle should also be swingy because Hispanic voters there are Spanish and not Mexican.

No.  Even though Lubbock will be slightly interesting.

[Sam Spade]

Exit poll has it at Clinton a shade above 51.  Obama a shade below 48 - for Ohio.

[Sam Spade]

Sam Spade (or someone else).... So what counties to watch for in Ohio and Texas that may give an indication?

Eastern Texas is all I know, thats the swing part of the state.

The Panhandle should also be swingy because Hispanic voters there are Spanish and not Mexican.

No.  Even though Lubbock will be slightly interesting.

Why wouldn't it be?

Go look at the numbers in Western Oklahoma and transpose them to the Panhandle.  Probably will be less of an Edwards protest vote also. (not the 20-30% in some places)

[Sam Spade]

Obama is winning in Cuyahoga County. I wasn't expecting that....

Cleveland has a large black population (obviously) and the county itself has some rather upscale suburban areas mostly (IIRC) east of the city).

Aren't there also a good amount of ethnics there (thinking Kucinich's CD).

[Sam Spade]

I like the new county maps on the screen.  Makes live a lot easier for me.

[Sam Spade]

So we're going to be here a while.

[Sam Spade]

These are the early votes.

[Sam Spade]

Red River County for Obama (OK border, near LA).

Katrina Dispora?

181-47.

Probably some affluent precinct.

Looked it up, the county seat is nearly half black. County as a whole is 18%.

Yea, there are fun counties here and there in Texas. 

[Sam Spade]

lol @ racial voting in east Texas...

[Sam Spade]

So, with almost all of the 900.000 early votes counted, it looks like SUSA's early voting poll (50% Clinton, 48% Obama) was horribly wrong and BELO poll was most accurate in predicting a 59-41 early vote for Obama.

That margin will narrow a decent bit - The border and El Paso aren't in yet. 

Ah, no surprise - Hillary 80-20 in Laredo.

[Sam Spade]

So do they just throw in all the early votes to one precinct or something? Because at the current rate there'd be somewhere in the range of 70-80 million voters in the Texas Democratic primary, which I find fairly unlikely

About half the votes should come from early voting, I suspect.

[Sam Spade]

Gillespie County - Germans, Germans, Germans.  My parents have a place up there.  Republican stronghold since the Civil War.

[Sam Spade]

Gillespie County - Germans, Germans, Germans.  My parents have a place up there.  Republican stronghold since the Civil War.

Kind of odd, considering German Catholics are more moderate nowdays, than English Evangelicals.

Those folks ain't moderate, cowboy.  Though I seem to remember LaFollette performing well there.

[Sam Spade]

Gillespie County - Germans, Germans, Germans.  My parents have a place up there.  Republican stronghold since the Civil War.

Kind of odd, considering German Catholics are more moderate nowdays, than English Evangelicals.

Those folks ain't moderate, cowboy.  Though I seem to remember LaFollette performing well there.

Interestingly enough - who was born in Gillespie County?

[Sam Spade]

Gillespie County - Germans, Germans, Germans.  My parents have a place up there.  Republican stronghold since the Civil War.

Kind of odd, considering German Catholics are more moderate nowdays, than English Evangelicals.

Those folks ain't moderate, cowboy.  Though I seem to remember LaFollette performing well there.

Well I meant in the Midwest, German Catholics are the Moderate Republicans, while Scandinavian Protestants are Liberal Democrats, and English Evangelicals are Conservative Republicans.
That could be regional though.

Not here - most of the folks who settled in German Texas were from Bavaria and Bohemia.  Not northern Germany.

[Sam Spade]

Hidalgo bumped Hillary up a couple of percent - 75-25 Clinton.

The three big counties still left to report earlies - El Paso, Cameron and Denton.  First two will favor Clinton (probably by a lot).  Denton should favor Obama by a good bit. (UNT is up there)

[Sam Spade]

I caution about exit polls from the RI area of the world.  We'll see...

[Sam Spade]

Texas exit poll suggests Limbaugh did indeed have a big effect on the race; Republicans only 53-46 for Obama.

Watch the GOP suburb counties to see if Obama's margins start declining as the night goes on.

[Sam Spade]

Also, German Catholic country seems to have favored Obama.

Rich white Austinites/San Antonioites should comprise most of the Dem vote there.

[Sam Spade]

Hays County might be interesting to see the early votes for. Alcon?

San Marcos.  Texas State is located there.