Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Interestingly, Obama did better among those making under $50,000 in Vermont than over.

60-38 among white Vermont Democrats, AKA Vermont Democrats.

Otherwise deeply boring.

One interesting thing is a higher percentage thought Clinton has a clear plan for the country, but voted for Obama anyway.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Voting in Sandusky County, OH, extended until 9 PM

So, no results from the entire states until 8:00 CT?  Ugh, darn weather!!

No, no results from that county.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sam Spade (or someone else).... So what counties to watch for in Ohio and Texas that may give an indication?

Most important in Ohio is probably Franklin. In Texas see how those ultra-Republican suburbs go.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama is winning in Cuyahoga County. I wasn't expecting that....

Uh, why not? It's Cleveland.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama is winning in Cuyahoga County. I wasn't expecting that....

Uh, why not? It's Cleveland.

Manufacturing. I thought it would be much closer if he won anyways.

Yeah except the manufacturing workers in Cleveland are mostly black.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Interesting regional breakdown in Ohio. Obama leads everywhere except the Northeast, where Clinton cleans up.

Er... isn't the Northeast Cleveland?

No Toledo, Sandusky etc.
Cleveland is seperate.

That's NORTHWEST Ohio.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Manufacturing.

All gone. Most of it anyway. There's a reason why the rust belt is called that.

(actually there are still about 80,000 manufacturing jobs left in that county. But that's nothing on what was the case just a few decades back and about 20,000 less than was the case in 2000).

Yeah except the manufacturing workers in Cleveland are mostly black.

No. Really, really, no.

Well what I meant was that Cleveland is majority black.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Supposedly a measure has passed in Brattleboro, Vermont which calls for the indictment of Bush and Cheney, meaning if they ever enter Brattleboro they are to be arrested. Awesome.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Err, Ohio is starting to report.  60-38 Clinton with a few precincts from Hancock and Pickaway counties.

Which county in OH is Naso living in again ?

Portage

Thx. Where are other OHans on here living ? Padfoot ?

He lives in Columbus, so Franklin County. I think Joe lives in Montgomery.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Interesting results from Texas....
It looks like a heavily Hispanic county in Texas voted for Clinton super narrowily.

No, she currently has a narrow lead in the county. It's barely in.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Might Edwards win Loving?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Looks like Edwards still has strong support in the Texas panhandle.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Gillespie County - Germans, Germans, Germans.  My parents have a place up there.  Republican stronghold since the Civil War.

Kind of odd, considering German Catholics are more moderate nowdays, than English Evangelicals.

Those folks ain't moderate, cowboy.  Though I seem to remember LaFollette performing well there.

Interestingly enough - who was born in Gillespie County?

LBJ

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Jefferson is still all out in addition to most of Harris.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hansford County can't be right. Over 1000 GOP primary votes and no Dem votes.

Someone posted earlier that a party can't have a primary without a county chairman.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Jefferson is still all out in addition to most of Harris.

As is El Paso and much of Hidalgo (though they can't nearly match the numbers in Harris).

Remember that the Hispanics overwhelmingly vote early.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What's with the caucus results?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What's with the caucus results?

I think the caucauses are super overcrowded and super messed up.

So when are they coming in?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've been out since Page 26. Can somebody tell me what's going on?

Hillary won OH, RI, and is leading in TX; Obama won VT.  Probable net delegate gain for Clinton.

Not with the caucus out and the disappropiation in Texas.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It seems to me that Clinton managed to get a LOT out of this night. She's pulled Obama into exactly the kind of dirty, negative politics where she can probably beat him. He's beginning to sound defensive. Also, the news spin for her right now sounds incredible. There was an analyst on CNN just saying that the winner of PA will be the nominee! If he cannot pull out Texas Clinton may have a better chance than we thought.

They can say it on the media, but the delegate numbers will not bear it out. They can't crown Clinton after winning PA if Obama leads by 100 delegates on April 23.

Ding.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama will not have such a lead if Clinton is crowned by the media.

The media can't affect delegates already won.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.

You said Obama won't have a lead after Pennsylvania if the media crowns Hillary. There's no way she can catch up between now and Pennsylvania.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.

You said Obama won't have a lead after Pennsylvania if the media crowns Hillary. There's no way she can catch up between now and Pennsylvania.

That's because super delegates would under that scenario flock to her. If he's forced out his delegate count may even drop to 0

But seriously politics has a lot to do with appearances, especially with all those super delegates holding the balance of power.

100 superdelegates will flock to Hillary between now and Pennsylvania?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It seems to me that Clinton managed to get a LOT out of this night. She's pulled Obama into exactly the kind of dirty, negative politics where she can probably beat him. He's beginning to sound defensive. Also, the news spin for her right now sounds incredible. There was an analyst on CNN just saying that the winner of PA will be the nominee! If he cannot pull out Texas Clinton may have a better chance than we thought.

They can say it on the media, but the delegate numbers will not bear it out. They can't crown Clinton after winning PA if Obama leads by 100 delegates on April 23.

No candidate can win without the Super Delegates.  Obama's argument that he has the majority of the elected delegates is weak, because he's not counting those from FL/MI, that are elected (if too early, according to the rules). 

Now, he has one argument to convince the super delegates:

He's more electable.

The results of Hillary's McCain-like (and McCain-lite) campaign today cast a shadow over that.  The fact that he close the deal, even though he outspent Hillary 3 to 1 casts a shadow over that.  The reported, on MSNBC, that 25% of Hillary's supporters say that they will support McCain over Obama casts a cloud over that.

This may come down to bare knuckle brawl in Denver.

You know you can keep copying and pasting the FL and MI crap all you like, it doesn't mean sh!t since the DNC doesn't agree with you.

And it's pretty obvious why MI's delegates shouldn't count, even if you can make a case for FL.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also the good streak for Hillary in the media likely ends tomorrow morning when the caucus comes in (then there's the rumor of Obama's fundraising + superdelegate bloc.)