Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic

[Mr. Morden]

Is this supposed to be a results thread for both parties?  We've always had separate Dem. and GOP results threads in the past.

[Mr. Morden]

Numbers from just a few hundred votes in VT....McCain and Obama leading:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#20080304

[Mr. Morden]

Some TX numbers in:

Obama: 58%
Clinton: 41%

Probably early votes

Weird, Texas numbers, but no exit poll (probably because of all of those early voters), and they're still voting in El Paso. Caucuses start in most of the state in 6 minutes.

It's not weird.  This is what always happens in states that vote in two timezones and close at different times.  The networks don't release exit polls or call the state until all polls have closed statewide, whereas, the state itself will release numbers in places where the polls have closed.

[Mr. Morden]

A handful of votes from RI are out, Clinton & McCain leading:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#20080304

[Mr. Morden]

Do we get any caucus numbers tonight?

They just started. But eventually.

Well, for most of the state, they actually started an hour ago.  But in most of the caucus states, the results didn't even start coming in until more than 1hr 30 min after caucus start time....in come cases much later than that.

[Mr. Morden]

Just returned from the caucus: Obama won 2-1 or so and I waited in line for 2 hours. Quick updates anyone?

McCain sweeps all four states and mathematically clinches the nomination.  Obama wins VT.  Clinton wins RI.  OH & TX not called on the Dem side.

[Mr. Morden]

Could somebody please tell me what the results are?

Which results?  The overall results for all four states?  Here's what we have so far:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#20080304

[Mr. Morden]

Chuck Todd on MSNBC is saying that even if Clinton's 2 point lead in TX holds up, his best guess (because of the particular districts where each candidate won) is that Obama nets about 3-4 delegates just from the *primary* contest in TX....this doesn't count what happens in the TX caucus, which we don't know about yet.

[Mr. Morden]

Wow, the Texas Democrats are paranoid.  Before even viewing the results, they force you to agree to two separate terms of use and provide your email, phone number, name and home address.  Wtf.

Anyway, by senate district:

TX-8 (: 62-37 Obama
TX-14: 66-33 Obama
TX-16: 60-39 Obama
TX-29: 75-24 Clinton
TX-30: 59-40 Clinton

All I know is that TX-29 is most of El Paso County, and TX-30 I think is Wichita Falls (?).

Is this the primary or the caucus?

[Mr. Morden]

Another thing - if I had to guess at this moment, I wouldn't be surprised if my Hillary +3 prediction in Texas nails it...  Unless the missing areas are blacks or upper-income whites.  Hillary's been gaining a good bit in the same-day voting numbers almost everywhere.

So ARG is right too?

As I said before, a broken clock is right twice a day.  My prediction also jives with Zogby.  I made it before both of them

Obvious explanation: ARG & Zogby simply copied your prediction in their "polls".

[Mr. Morden]

22% now reporting in the Texas caucus:

Obama 56%
Clinton 44%

[Mr. Morden]

We're now up to 38% reporting in the Texas caucus.  Obama's lead is up to 56%-44%.  At this rate, we should have all the results in by May.