Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic

[ag]

Clinton's lead is expanding in Texas, but I can't figure out what's coming in, besides Corpus Christi.

Shes winning Galveston last time I checked.

By 250 votes. That's really a tie.

[ag]

Obama will not have such a lead if Clinton is crowned by the media.

Travis is up to 78%. I guess this will largely be Harris (14%) v El Paso (12%)?

El Paso has been 28% for a while.

[ag]

BTW, Webb has fully reported. So has Nueces.

So, what's left:

El Paso 54% reporting, 69%C
Hidalgo 47% reporting 73% C
Bexar 75% reporting 57%C

Dallas 71% reporting 62% O
Tarrant 71% reporting 54% O
Harrist 50% reporting 58% O
Travis 89% reporting 63% O

Am I missing anything big?

Overall, Clinton should win the PV here, but not by 70 thousand votes - I'd conjecture, it will be halved.

[ag]

You guys, the delegate results tonight are fairly unimportant, this is huge for Clinton, that much is obvious no matter who you support, she's not only not out of it, she's neck and neck and heading into territory very favorable to her.

You are right and wrong. Both are important.

Clinton has, of course, shown viability. She will go on - and rightly so. 2% swing in Texas, even if it weren't significant in delegates, and she'd be much closer to being out of the race. PV victory is important.

Still, the delegate count is also hugely important: there is just too little left. In order to win the convention she'd have either to win with huge margins in remaining state races, or somehow pursuade the bulk of the remaining superdelegate to vote for her. There are just not enough of big states left, period. The laws of arithmetic are getting pretty bad for her.

Still, today is, unquestionably, her day: she survived to give another fight. She is still a heavy underdog, though.

[ag]

If 11 straight wins couldn't deliver Texas or Ohio, how the HELL is Mississippi and Wyoming going to help deliver PA, a closed primary??

They won't. But after them, Clinton would have that much a tougher job catching up in delegates. Early on, momentum is everything. You don't care about NH delegates - you care about NH. Later, that's simply not the case: every delegate starts counting. And when PA comes, Obama will be able to afford loosing it narrowly - Clinton won't.

Still, once again, let me make clear: today is Clinton's day. She did what she had to. It might not be enough, but she is still in.

[ag]

While we were talking, the bulk of Harris Co. reported - and it didn't do anything for Obama (his absolute lead in the county remained at 50 thousand). Looks like Clinton will, actually, hold something like her current lead - 80 thousand, +- a bit.