Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic

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Here's the line-up by eastern time:

7:00 Vermont polls close
7:30 Ohio polls close
8:00 Most of Texas polls close, probably no results until 9
8:15 Most of Texas caucuses start
9:00 Rest of Texas polls close, Rhode Island polls close
9:15 Rest of Texas caucuses start

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MSNBC just released some exit poll numbers. The economy was the top issue in all four states but the Iraq War nearly tied it in Vermont (40%-36%).

It looks like the whitest state in the union is going to go strong for the black man.

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Obama has 9 out of 15 pledged delegates for Vermont. If he can break 65%, he gets a 10th delegate.

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If Clinton wins Rhode Island, but gets under 56.25%, she's probably looking at a net gain of only 1 delegate. Not very useful for her.

Oh, when I say percentages, I mean of the Clinton & Obama vote, it doesn't matter how many people waste their vote on the Gravelanch or whoever.

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Clinton has a 3 point lead in the Ohio exit polls.

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It seems unlikely that Clinton will win the pledged delegates from today. Rhode Island may only just cancel out Obama's net 3 or so in Vermont. Ohio will likely net her a few, but Texas will more than cancel that out.

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Interesting regional breakdown in Ohio. Obama leads everywhere except the Northeast, where Clinton cleans up.

Er... isn't the Northeast Cleveland?

No Toledo, Sandusky etc.
Cleveland is seperate.

what

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Election stealing in Texas.

http://www.click2houston.com/news/15492166/detail.html

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They arent counting votes until Sandusky[sp?] closes....or so they said on MSNBC.

Wouldn't they be counting votes, but not releasing them?

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Clinton will be lucky to be up 8 or 10 delegates from Ohio, Vermont, and Rhode Island. I think everyone knows that Obama will win Texas delegates by at least 10. Bye bye, Clinton.

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Obama Campaign asking for a 2 hour extention of polls in some counties....*sigh*

Which state? If this is Texas, how does that affect the caucus?

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Obama Campaign asking for a 2 hour extention of polls in some counties....*sigh*

Which state? If this is Texas, how does that affect the caucus?

Its Ohio...not Texas.

So the polls would be re-opened? That would be unusual. Oh well, let's count every vote.

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Obama has 9 out of 15 pledged delegates for Vermont. If he can break 65%, he gets a 10th delegate.

Seeing as the 2-candidate split is about 60-40, it's looking pretty likely that it'll be a 9-6 split.

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Clinton leads Essex County, VT 67-33 with 7% in.

This was Kerry's only VT county victory in 2004.

You mean his only county loss?

2004 Dem primaries. Duh.

Kerry also won Bennington VT in the primary. Essex was the only county he didn't win in the general.

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Some TX numbers in:

Obama: 58%
Clinton: 41%

Probably early votes

Weird, Texas numbers, but no exit poll (probably because of all of those early voters), and they're still voting in El Paso. Caucuses start in most of the state in 6 minutes.

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Do we get any caucus numbers tonight?

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Stupid Rhode Island.

It joins New York, New Hampshire, Mass, and New Jersey as the only REAL states in New England....according to the Clinton Campaign

New Jersey and New York are not part of New England.

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Huckabee is STILL talking! End it.

He needs all the face time he can get now for the 2012 Republican nomination.

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Despite currently losing the Texas primary, Obama is leading its delegates 64-62.

EDIT: Now it's a 63-63 tie.

With 5% in, he leads 56-44 in the caucus, which selects another 67 delegates.

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i am unbelievably hyped up about loving county, texas

Here's who they're loving:

Obama 7
Clinton 5
Edwards 5
Richardson 4
Dodd1
Biden 0


And 0 loving votes for the Republicans.

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Clinton did better than I thought she would. She won Ohio by a fair amount, although not the sort of margin she needed to have any hope of catching up with pledged delegates. She won the Texas primary, and she's currently up 65-61 with their delegates. That net of 4 should be cancelled out by Obama's expected win in the caucus. She's looking stronger than before, but Obama is definitely still the front-runner, before she was looking like a joke.

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What is "pulling a Henry Cuellar"?

Republicans voting for the most Republican candidate in the Democratic primary in Texas.

Hillary is not going to drop out after winning PA... This is going to go all the way to the convention. The Democrats are in serious trouble.

I have no facts to back this up, but I have a feeling it will be Obama who drops out. Not now, of course, but in a matter of weeks.

Maybe you should short him on InTrade. He's at 73.5%.

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My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

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My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.

Rasmussen disagrees.

Isn't ARG the new gold standard?

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Delegate totals.

Obama wins VT 9-6
Clinton wins RI 13-8
Clinton is currently winning TX-P 65-61

I can't find good delegate estimates for OH or TX-C. Anyways, it looks like for the first time, she won the pledged delegates for all the states that voted a particular day. Of course Obama will win Wyoming and Mississippi.