Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic

[Gustaf]

It would seem that 59% of those who said race was the most important factor voted for Clinton.

[Gustaf]

It would seem that 59% of those who said race was the most important factor voted for Clinton.

It is still the South.

Actually, I should have said I was referring to Ohio.

[Gustaf]

CNN is really slow at compiling early votes.  There are a ton of counties which have been reporting for a while but aren't included.  Then again, it's Texas, so there are ten gazillion counties.

Where can we get uptodate numbers?

[Gustaf]

I like McCain's subtle jab at Bush.

[Gustaf]

CNN calls Ohio for Clinton.

[Gustaf]

There seem to be a lot of Clinton precincts left too.

[Gustaf]

Lots of Obamaland coming in now.

[Gustaf]

Lots of Obamaland coming in now.

Where?  Latest update had Bexar and Travis, not much for either.

I was looking at the counties where Obama does well incraesing their number of precincts. And possibly lagging too. And I'm tired and know little about Texas counties. Given all that I think I was correct...

[Gustaf]

Clinton: I won Michigan.

[Gustaf]

Haha, Hillary supporters chanting "Yes she can"

[Gustaf]

Mediocre speech, but really horrible crowd reactions. What happened to the enthusiasm?

[Gustaf]

It seems to me that Clinton managed to get a LOT out of this night. She's pulled Obama into exactly the kind of dirty, negative politics where she can probably beat him. He's beginning to sound defensive. Also, the news spin for her right now sounds incredible. There was an analyst on CNN just saying that the winner of PA will be the nominee! If he cannot pull out Texas Clinton may have a better chance than we thought.

[Gustaf]

Obama will not have such a lead if Clinton is crowned by the media.

Travis is up to 78%. I guess this will largely be Harris (14%) v El Paso (12%)?

[Gustaf]

Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.

[Gustaf]

Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.

You said Obama won't have a lead after Pennsylvania if the media crowns Hillary. There's no way she can catch up between now and Pennsylvania.

That's because super delegates would under that scenario flock to her. If he's forced out his delegate count may even drop to 0

But seriously politics has a lot to do with appearances, especially with all those super delegates holding the balance of power.

[Gustaf]

Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.

You said Obama won't have a lead after Pennsylvania if the media crowns Hillary. There's no way she can catch up between now and Pennsylvania.

That's because super delegates would under that scenario flock to her. If he's forced out his delegate count may even drop to 0

But seriously politics has a lot to do with appearances, especially with all those super delegates holding the balance of power.

You're missing the point. They can't crown a winner who trails, badly, in the pledged delegate count. And the superdelegates are not going to switch on "appearances"; they know enough of politics to understand that a lot of this is smoke and mirrors.

That's a whole other argument. Should I interpret your changing the argument as you agreeing with me on what I said?

[Gustaf]

I don't want this to appear like I'm showing an anti-Obama bias. I predicted things were over for Clinton. Hell, I predicted Obama would win Texas tonight. Just like I thought he was gonna win New Hampshire and California and Massachusetts. But I'm genuinely surprised by the media handling. It seems like Clinton is getting the opening she needed. Whether it's enough is another matter.

[Gustaf]

Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.

You said Obama won't have a lead after Pennsylvania if the media crowns Hillary. There's no way she can catch up between now and Pennsylvania.

That's because super delegates would under that scenario flock to her. If he's forced out his delegate count may even drop to 0

But seriously politics has a lot to do with appearances, especially with all those super delegates holding the balance of power.

You're missing the point. They can't crown a winner who trails, badly, in the pledged delegate count. And the superdelegates are not going to switch on "appearances"; they know enough of politics to understand that a lot of this is smoke and mirrors.

That's a whole other argument. Should I interpret your changing the argument as you agreeing with me on what I said?

Well, sort of. Yes, the media can affect the remaining races. But they won't crown a winner who trails in delegates, though they might say it now without thinking about it. And there are two other races between now and PA which will change the media narrative (Clinton Bump Elusive?).

I agree it sounds crazy, but I've learnt never to underestimate the stupidity that can come on public display in these amtters.

[Gustaf]

Harris jumps to 50% with no net gain for Obama out of it.

[Gustaf]

Travis goes up to 83%. Still no net gain for Obama (though there might have been within Travis)

[Gustaf]

Tarrant jumped to 71% and Clinton increased her margin.

[Gustaf]

And now El Paso came in. Clinton u´p by another 10k.