Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Democratic ballots apparently outnumbered the GOP by a large margin, according to a poll worker. 

In Clermont county? Haha, wow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

CNN projects Vermont for Obama and McCain

shock

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I just did that same math, and came up with the same thing.  We'll see if the exit polls hold up (early exit polls overestimated Obama in VT, after all...)

Well. The early figures overestimated him relative to the figures released on close of poll. Slight difference.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In Ohio the main areas to look out for should, stress "should", be the more urban of the various traditional industrial areas (this is not the same thing as areas with the highest percentage of manufacturing jobs. Just thought I'd point that out). Not so much for who wins, but by how much. The rural areas don't matter, Columbus doesn't matter (much), the Southeast of the state (especially) doesn't matter. What matters is the margins (in raw votes as much as percentages) in the sort of areas mentioned above.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obama is winning in Cuyahoga County. I wasn't expecting that....

Cleveland has a large black population (obviously) and the county itself has some rather upscale suburban areas mostly (IIRC) east of the city).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Manufacturing.

All gone. Most of it anyway. There's a reason why the rust belt is called that.

(actually there are still about 80,000 manufacturing jobs left in that county. But that's nothing on what was the case just a few decades back and about 20,000 less than was the case in 2000).

Yeah except the manufacturing workers in Cleveland are mostly black.

No. Really, really, no.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Aren't there also a good amount of ethnics there (thinking Kucinich's CD).

Oui. Will be interesting to see how different the results are in the 10th and 11th CDs.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well what I meant was that Cleveland is majority black.

IIRC Cleveland City isn't even a majority of Cuyahoga county anymore.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Aren't there also a good amount of ethnics there (thinking Kucinich's CD).

Oui. Will be interesting to see how different the results are in the 10th and 11th CDs.

Yeah especially to see how Catholic and Orthodox ethnic Eastern Europeans vote, compared to those in MA.

Or Chicago actually. Some interesting patterns there didst go not noticed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's one o clock, I've got stuff to do tomorrow and I've no dog in this race.

Nos da.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very, very interesting results, yes.

In Ohio the main areas to look out for should, stress "should", be the more urban of the various traditional industrial areas (this is not the same thing as areas with the highest percentage of manufacturing jobs. Just thought I'd point that out). Not so much for who wins, but by how much. The rural areas don't matter, Columbus doesn't matter (much), the Southeast of the state (especially) doesn't matter. What matters is the margins (in raw votes as much as percentages) in the sort of areas mentioned above.

Always nice to get something right (more or less) even if it was a little obvious

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes. Obama will win the district but Hillary will do very, very well among the whites in South Philly.

Didn't South Philly vote for Reagan?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's with Obama only leading by 2% Cuyahoga?

More like 7 or so now, but the answer is still the same; white ethnics.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes. Obama will win the district but Hillary will do very, very well among the whites in South Philly.

Didn't South Philly vote for Reagan?

Actually, they did.

Ah. Well, we all know how urban-ethnic-working class areas that first disliked and then grew to loath Carter have gone this year...