CA-11

[Хahar 🤔]

Going to school today, I heard an ad attacking the House's stand against random wiretapping, and urging people to send letters to Jerry McNerney in support of wiretapping. Clearly, the race is in full swing already.

While I'm obviously hoping for a McNerney hold, it'll be tough, and I think he'll lose 49-48. I just don't see him winning against a candidate riding on McCain's coattails (as opposed to association with Bush), without the sort of baggage Pombo had.

Thoughts?

[Хahar 🤔]

While I'm obviously hoping for a McNerney hold, it'll be tough, and I think he'll lose 49-48. I just don't see him winning against a candidate riding on McCain's coattails (as opposed to association with Bush), without the sort of baggage Pombo had.

I agree, it'll be close, but McNerney will lose.

The Republican has nothing going for him other than party identification.  I can't see that alone being enough to pull him over the top.

It's a very Republican district. McNerney won only because 2006 was such a great year and Pombo hates the environment.

[Хahar 🤔]

While I'm obviously hoping for a McNerney hold, it'll be tough, and I think he'll lose 49-48. I just don't see him winning against a candidate riding on McCain's coattails (as opposed to association with Bush), without the sort of baggage Pombo had.

I agree, it'll be close, but McNerney will lose.

The Republican has nothing going for him other than party identification.  I can't see that alone being enough to pull him over the top.

It's a very Republican district. McNerney won only because 2006 was such a great year and Pombo hates the environment.

Its not that Republican of a district.  In the 2008 Democratic primary Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans by 16,000 and the voter registration is very close between Democrats and Republicans. 

Ah yes, I forgot the all important qualifier:

It's a very Republican district for that part of the state.

[Хahar 🤔]

While I'm obviously hoping for a McNerney hold, it'll be tough, and I think he'll lose 49-48. I just don't see him winning against a candidate riding on McCain's coattails (as opposed to association with Bush), without the sort of baggage Pombo had.

I agree, it'll be close, but McNerney will lose.

The Republican has nothing going for him other than party identification.  I can't see that alone being enough to pull him over the top.

It's a very Republican district. McNerney won only because 2006 was such a great year and Pombo hates the environment.

Its not that Republican of a district.  In the 2008 Democratic primary Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans by 16,000 and the voter registration is very close between Democrats and Republicans. 

Ah yes, I forgot the all important qualifier:

It's a very Republican district for that part of the state.

Its no more of a Republican district for California than NC-13 is a Democratic district for North Carolina. 

But it hands the Republican easy victories in normal years.

[Хahar 🤔]

While I'm obviously hoping for a McNerney hold, it'll be tough, and I think he'll lose 49-48. I just don't see him winning against a candidate riding on McCain's coattails (as opposed to association with Bush), without the sort of baggage Pombo had.

I agree, it'll be close, but McNerney will lose.

The Republican has nothing going for him other than party identification.  I can't see that alone being enough to pull him over the top.

It's a very Republican district. McNerney won only because 2006 was such a great year and Pombo hates the environment.

Its not that Republican of a district.  In the 2008 Democratic primary Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans by 16,000 and the voter registration is very close between Democrats and Republicans. 

Ah yes, I forgot the all important qualifier:

It's a very Republican district for that part of the state.

Its no more of a Republican district for California than NC-13 is a Democratic district for North Carolina. 

But it hands the Republican easy victories in normal years.

Bush only won it 53%-46% in 2004 and Democrats have held seats in this general area in California in the past.  Tony Coehlo(1978-1988) and John McFall(?-1978) are two that come to mind. 

But "general area" does not mean "generally similar politics"; the 11th once covered much of Silicon Valley.

[Хahar 🤔]

Andal is settled? In that case, change this one to lean Democratic.

Wasn't Brent Jones running?

[Хahar 🤔]

This district will likely be made very safe for him in 2012.  All they would need to do is shed off the most Republican parts of San Joquain county and extend the district further towards the bay picking up more Hispanics and some African Americans. 

Except that the population growth has been bigger in the Central Valley than in the Bay Area.  Unless California gets another seat in the House, this district or another one (the 10th? the 7th?) will be pushed eastward rather than westward.

I doubt it. There are several VERY safe districts in the East Bay that can be pushed eastward.

[Хahar 🤔]

I can see CA-11 and CA-7 exchanging some territory. Both districts would look UGLY, but that's never stopped incumbent gerrymandering before.

[Хahar 🤔]

http://www.k4a.net/

Website of one of the candidates. Look at all the black text at the bottom designed to gain hits.
Interestingly, though, Andal and McNerney are the only registered candidates.

[Хahar 🤔]

The way I see it, if McCain wins, McNerney is defeated in 2008. If Obama wins, McNerney hangs on to 2010, where he has a hard fight. If he wins then, he's defeated in 2014.

[Хahar 🤔]

The way I see it, if McCain wins, McNerney is defeated in 2008. If Obama wins, McNerney hangs on to 2010, where he has a hard fight. If he wins then, he's defeated in 2014.

If McNerney gets through 2010 he is likely to get a pretty solid Dem seat from redistricting. 

Oops. Forgot about that. They'll give him the Tauscher treatment, I suppose.

[Хahar 🤔]

In the case that Andal won, how would this seat be gerrymandered for him?

[Хahar 🤔]

In the case that Andal won, how would this seat be gerrymandered for him?

It would likely be gerrymandered to get rid of him or possibly place him in the same district as Rick Randovich.  Democrats are likely to control redistricting here and California is one of the few big states that they control. 

Gerrymandering in California is bipartisan and designed to favor incumbents.

[Хahar 🤔]

In the case that Andal won, how would this seat be gerrymandered for him?

It would likely be gerrymandered to get rid of him or possibly place him in the same district as Rick Randovich.  Democrats are likely to control redistricting here and California is one of the few big states that they control. 

Gerrymandering in California is bipartisan and designed to favor incumbents.

That's generally not true.  In 2002 Democrats draw the lines to protect incumbents because they had more of them in tough seats to defend.  The only states where gerrymandering is bipartisan are in Washington, Arizona, New Jersey, and Iowa. 

I'm just going by what Wikipedia (which is never wrong) says:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California%27s_congressional_districts#Bi-partisan_Gerrymandering

[Хahar 🤔]

Bump. Heard another anti-McNerney ad.

[Хahar 🤔]

Bump. Heard another anti-McNerney ad.

Hey man where do you live? I guess my parents and you share a CD. Anyways how is the competition you think? Isn't it some no name from Stockton? I really wonder how he plays in Tracy and Brentwood. That is where the election will be decided.

Live right by Cupertino, in the 15th. You're right about Andal, but he's a weak candidate. If this is all the GOP can muster, it's really in bad shape.

[Хahar 🤔]

Yeah seriously the district is more suburban bay area than it seems. Brentwood, Tracy,Mountain house are all suburban and will probably vote similar to the tri-valley region. Andal was probably selected by the crazies that are all over the place in the valley. Even the exurbs of the bay area are not that extreme. If the republicans were smart they would pick some GOP moderate from the suburbs. Anyways Andal cant swim against the wave that is coming for the GOP.

I'm surprised they can't win this one. Pombo almost held onto his seat, so any other Republican should be able to take it. But it is not to be.

[Хahar 🤔]

Yeah seriously the district is more suburban bay area than it seems. Brentwood, Tracy,Mountain house are all suburban and will probably vote similar to the tri-valley region. Andal was probably selected by the crazies that are all over the place in the valley. Even the exurbs of the bay area are not that extreme. If the republicans were smart they would pick some GOP moderate from the suburbs. Anyways Andal cant swim against the wave that is coming for the GOP.

I'm surprised they can't win this one. Pombo almost held onto his seat, so any other Republican should be able to take it. But it is not to be.

To reiterate earlier comments, it's safe to say that CA-11 is trending left. As long as McNerney doesn't alienate the more rural parts of this district, he'll be pretty safe till redistricting*.

*Of course, he could be a victim in 2010 if Obama become President.

I won't say safe until I see this year's result.  There are a lot of dynamics that could change things one way or another.

On the other hand, I'm worried about the 15th Assembly District following CA-11 leftward.

Primary vote totals seem to be nearly even between Dems and GOP.

[Хahar 🤔]

Well, it wasn't even close in the end...

Map: