CA-11

[cannonia]

Andal is settled? In that case, change this one to lean Democratic.

Agreed.  The Republicans are giving up a good opportunity by not fighting hard for this district.

[cannonia]

This district will likely be made very safe for him in 2012.  All they would need to do is shed off the most Republican parts of San Joquain county and extend the district further towards the bay picking up more Hispanics and some African Americans. 

Except that the population growth has been bigger in the Central Valley than in the Bay Area.  Unless California gets another seat in the House, this district or another one (the 10th? the 7th?) will be pushed eastward rather than westward.

[cannonia]

Andal will do best in the Stockton/Lodi area.

It's too bad Doug Ose isn't running in this district, though.

[cannonia]

Well, it's too early to write Andal off.  He will have a very tough race, though.

McCain on the top of the ticket should help him.  McCain is well-liked in California, and he should not turn off moderates (or Hispanics).  Also, if McCain makes a credible argument on Iraq, it may neutralize the issue down-ticket.

The San Joaquin part of the district overlaps with another very competitive race, the 5th State Senate district.  The Democrat in this race will be Lois Wolk, former mayor of Davis.  She should prove to be very unpopular in the southern part of the 5th District.  The Republican in the race is Greg Aghazarian, also from Stockton.

The Governator could also help the Republicans in these races.  He won every part of this district by wide margins.  Will he campaign or raise money for these races?  If he can swing any elections in the state, these would be the two to try.

And any of these could backfire.  McCain could shoot his mouth off and turn off Republican voters.  The other races overlapping with the district could energize Democrats.  And as has happened in the past (with ballot measures), Schwarzenegger's endorsement could be a kiss of death.

[cannonia]

In the case that Andal won, how would this seat be gerrymandered for him?

It would likely be gerrymandered to get rid of him or possibly place him in the same district as Rick Randovich.  Democrats are likely to control redistricting here and California is one of the few big states that they control. 

Gerrymandering in California is bipartisan and designed to favor incumbents.

That's generally not true.  In 2002 Democrats draw the lines to protect incumbents because they had more of them in tough seats to defend.  The only states where gerrymandering is bipartisan are in Washington, Arizona, New Jersey, and Iowa. 

I'm just going by what Wikipedia (which is never wrong) says:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California%27s_congressional_districts#Bi-partisan_Gerrymandering

Yes, the 2002 redistricting was a bipartisan scheme to protect incumbents.  The Legislature wanted to protect their own jobs and to provide safe districts to move up to.  The Republicans wanted to avoid having their districts redrawn to be more Democratic.  The Democrats were still alarmed by losing 3 House seats and the state Assembly in 1994, and Vic Fazio's House seat in 1996.  The current districts are a job security plan, and that shows since all the scandals in California's Republican House delegation only cost the party this one seat.

[cannonia]

Yeah seriously the district is more suburban bay area than it seems. Brentwood, Tracy,Mountain house are all suburban and will probably vote similar to the tri-valley region. Andal was probably selected by the crazies that are all over the place in the valley. Even the exurbs of the bay area are not that extreme. If the republicans were smart they would pick some GOP moderate from the suburbs. Anyways Andal cant swim against the wave that is coming for the GOP.

I'm surprised they can't win this one. Pombo almost held onto his seat, so any other Republican should be able to take it. But it is not to be.

To reiterate earlier comments, it's safe to say that CA-11 is trending left. As long as McNerney doesn't alienate the more rural parts of this district, he'll be pretty safe till redistricting*.

*Of course, he could be a victim in 2010 if Obama become President.

I won't say safe until I see this year's result.  There are a lot of dynamics that could change things one way or another.

On the other hand, I'm worried about the 15th Assembly District following CA-11 leftward.