CA-11

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I think Mcnerney will hold his large advantage here in Pleasanton and the whole tri valley region of the bay area. Where he needs to win again is in Tracy and hold his own in the suburbs around stockton and lodi. He did it in 06 in large part due to Bush but what may save him now is the subprime mortgage mess. I hear the stockton area has been hit very hard and many cannot even sell their homes and have to walk away. Thus playing up economics around here just may save him. As for a good gerrymander we have ca-09 just across the hill full of democratic votes that can merge with the tri valley to create another safe dem district. Especially if the Oakland hills is merged with the tri valley it will create a perfect district for a socially liberal and fiscally moderate democrat.

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Andal will do best in the Stockton/Lodi area.

It's too bad Doug Ose isn't running in this district, though.

That's probably the only part of the district Andal will carry.  Whether it is enough to win remains to be seen, since San Joquain county does cast about half of the district's votes.  If McNerney can make it past 2010, he will likely be relieved of the most heavily Republican parts of SanJoquain and given some heavily minority territory to the west. 

Tracy is a very important city in san joaquin county which increasingly has more in common with the bay area than the central valley. It is a relatively big city, about 80000+, and it is totally in the district. If Mcnerney does well in Tracy in combination with the bay area parts he could win. Castro valley and the Oakland Hills would be the perfect combination with the tri valley and Tracy. That could be a nice gerrymander for mcnerney.

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Bump. Heard another anti-McNerney ad.

Hey man where do you live? I guess my parents and you share a CD. Anyways how is the competition you think? Isn't it some no name from Stockton? I really wonder how he plays in Tracy and Brentwood. That is where the election will be decided.

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Yeah seriously the district is more suburban bay area than it seems. Brentwood, Tracy,Mountain house are all suburban and will probably vote similar to the tri-valley region. Andal was probably selected by the crazies that are all over the place in the valley. Even the exurbs of the bay area are not that extreme. If the republicans were smart they would pick some GOP moderate from the suburbs. Anyways Andal cant swim against the wave that is coming for the GOP.

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Yeah seriously the district is more suburban bay area than it seems. Brentwood, Tracy,Mountain house are all suburban and will probably vote similar to the tri-valley region. Andal was probably selected by the crazies that are all over the place in the valley. Even the exurbs of the bay area are not that extreme. If the republicans were smart they would pick some GOP moderate from the suburbs. Anyways Andal cant swim against the wave that is coming for the GOP.

I'm surprised they can't win this one. Pombo almost held onto his seat, so any other Republican should be able to take it. But it is not to be.

To reiterate earlier comments, it's safe to say that CA-11 is trending left. As long as McNerney doesn't alienate the more rural parts of this district, he'll be pretty safe till redistricting*.

*Of course, he could be a victim in 2010 if Obama become President.

I won't say safe until I see this year's result.  There are a lot of dynamics that could change things one way or another.

On the other hand, I'm worried about the 15th Assembly District following CA-11 leftward.

Primary vote totals seem to be nearly even between Dems and GOP.

Yes there are too many rural and non hispanic towns in the CD. The suburbs of Stockton obviously do not help. I think Mcnerney is safe for this year but if Obama does not meet expectations, he could be in trouble in 2010. It is so frustrating considering it borders one of the most liberal CD's in the country and another one whose representative is an open atheist and considered one of the most liberal members of the congress.

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I recently read on this forum that dublin,ca was one of the fastest growing cities in california. Most of this growth is townhomes and smaller, more eco friendly housing. Many of them are close to the BART and have shopping facilities right below the apartments. It has that urban feel and I think they will vote accordingly. This will definitely help him.

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Yes there are too many rural and non hispanic towns in the CD. The suburbs of Stockton obviously do not help.

What are the suburbs of Stockton like these days? Any better than the suburbs of Merced and other boom-bust Central Valley housing markets?

Those areas are not doing well at all right now as the housing crisis has hit those areas much worse than the actual bay area. That is one of the reasons why I think Mcnerney is safe for this year.