Gallup: Kerry leads in Ohio, +10 RV, +2 LV

[minionofmidas]

  The posters at Free Republic wet their pants when Gallup said Bush was ahead by 3+ points, my guess now they will say Gallup is bought and paid for by the Kerry camp.

 Again, I think that Gallup is off here as well. Bush I feel is a little behind in Ohio, maybe by more than 2 points but not less than 5 points. Again, people have to see that economics plays a large role here. A man may go to churcn every sunday, own 20 guns, but if he was laid off and his job sent to China, while his son cant get any footing in the construction industry because so many illegal aliens have been imported, he will be quite reluctant to vote for Bush.

Though he did do so last time around. Look at the county map of Ohio in 96 and 2000. Look at the Southeast, to be precise.
Oh, and I think you meant "not more than 5 points."

[minionofmidas]

An 8-point disparity favoring Bush between registered voters and likely voters can mean one of two things:

1. Republicans are substantially more likely to actually vote than Democrats.
2. This poll sucks.

It might be the first option.

It might be "the sort of people who are registered but don't vote that often are voting Kerry this time - if they vote, that is".
But I agree, the second option is somewhere in the mix.

[minionofmidas]

  The posters at Free Republic wet their pants when Gallup said Bush was ahead by 3+ points, my guess now they will say Gallup is bought and paid for by the Kerry camp.

 Again, I think that Gallup is off here as well. Bush I feel is a little behind in Ohio, maybe by more than 2 points but not less than 5 points. Again, people have to see that economics plays a large role here. A man may go to churcn every sunday, own 20 guns, but if he was laid off and his job sent to China, while his son cant get any footing in the construction industry because so many illegal aliens have been imported, he will be quite reluctant to vote for Bush.

Though he did do so last time around. Look at the county map of Ohio in 96 and 2000. Look at the Southeast, to be precise.
Oh, and I think you meant "not more than 5 points."

True, but Bush wasn't in power then

That indeed would appear as the main reason, I'd say.