Puerto Rico switches to Primary, moves up to June 1st

[Lief 🗽]

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/breaking-puerto-rico-switches-to.html

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[exopolitician]

Uhh..okay?

[Eraserhead]

Epic fail.

[Alcon]

Bad news for Obama...probably.  Although he seems to do better among primary-attending Hispanics than caucus-attending ones (see: Texas)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's tough to say if this helps Hillary or Obama. The caucus format didn't benefit Obama in the heavily Hispanic parts of Texas, in some counties Hillary ran 10 points ahead of her primary numbers there. At the same time we don't know if Puerto Ricans will be like mainland Hispanics in voting. We'll probably get a poll from it at some point though.

[J. J.]

Bad news for Obama...probably.  Although he seems to do better among primary-attending Hispanics than caucus-attending ones (see: Texas)

Ever hear of California? 

[Lief 🗽]

Seeing Obama and Clinton stumping in Puerto Rico will be one of the most bizarre political happenings in a long time.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Bad news for Obama...probably.  Although he seems to do better among primary-attending Hispanics than caucus-attending ones (see: Texas)

Ever hear of California? 

Did California also have a caucus in addition to its primary allowing us to compare Hillary and Obama's performances in each respective contest? No.

[ottermax]

Puerto Ricans are unlike most Hispanics on the mainland. Technically, they are all Hispanic. I think they are more open-minded, but then again perhaps they are racists like in Ohio. 20% of the pop. is Black.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a few county comparisons of Hillary's numbers in Texas (note that the caucuses aren't all in yet but it's unlikely there's going to be huge changes in these homogeneous counties):

El Paso:
Primary - 69%
Caucus - 75%

Webb:
Primary - 77%
Caucus - 89%

Cameron:
Primary - 68%
Caucus - 77%

Nueces:
Primary - 66%
Caucus - 74%

Hidalgo:
Primary - 73%
Caucus - 87%

[Alcon]

Bad news for Obama...probably.  Although he seems to do better among primary-attending Hispanics than caucus-attending ones (see: Texas)

Ever hear of California? 

What are you talking about?

Yes, I've seen the results from Imperial County.  See South Texas in the caucus?  Seriously.  I know you're vetting for your chosen candidate here, but c'mon, J. J., you know better.

I hope

[Flying Dog]

Perfect, Michigan might be last.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Bad news for Obama...probably.  Although he seems to do better among primary-attending Hispanics than caucus-attending ones (see: Texas)

Ever hear of California? 

What are you talking about?

I assume his logic is something like this:

California is a primary. Obama did bad among Hispanics in California (even though he didn't really do any worse than the typical numbers he got in other states.) Therefore that means that Obama clearly doesn't do in worse in caucuses among Hispanics than primaries even though we have nothing resembling a caucus to compare Obama's performance in California too.

Didn't say it made sense.

[True Democrat]

I think this favors Clinton.  The Governor's support of Obama will no longer be as helpful as it was  in a caucus.

[Padfoot]

Do you think a primary campaign in PR will cause an increased interest in the future of the island's political status on the mainland?  The statehood v territory status will surely come up in any kind of campaign right?  It's essentially the single biggest issue that divides the political parties on the island.

[ottermax]

Do you think a primary campaign in PR will cause an increased interest in the future of the island's political status on the mainland?  The statehood v territory status will surely come up in any kind of campaign right?  It's essentially the single biggest issue that divides the political parties on the island.

I bet that both candidates will say the exact same thing: it depends on how the people of Puerto Rico vote.

[Meeker]

I don't know who this'll benefit, but either way I'm extremely happy. Puerto Rico has never had an important say in who'll be President, and it would've been a shame for the one time that they did have a say to have hundreds of thousands (or even millions perhaps) disenfranchised by a ridiculous caucus system. Now hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans will be able to participate in American democracy just like their mainland counterparts and actually make a difference.

Oh, and as Padfoot said, the statehood debate coming up into a national campaign would be awesome.

[Verily]

First, people are being stupid assuming that the same racial patterns on the mainland will hold in PR. They may, but not for the same reasons.

FWIW, Obama has been endorsed by the PPD governor and Clinton by the leftists in the PNP, so it will be pro-statehooders supporting Clinton and anti-statehooders supporting Obama, pretty much exclusively with no crossover. That means Obama's challenge is to make those who are ambivalent towards the US turn out as they far outnumber the leftist statehooders but are probably much less likely to vote.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The factors that lead to Hispanics not wanting to vote for a Black candidate just simply do not apply to Puerto Rico to the degree that they do on the mainland.  There never was in Puerto Rico itself the efforts to play black against brown tension that caused that to happen on the mainland.  There will be some of that thanks to Puerto Ricans who moved to mainland and then either went back or influenced the opinions of those who stayed behind, but it won't be as much of a factor as it was in the southwest.

[Alcon]

The factors that lead to Hispanics not wanting to vote for a Black candidate just simply do not apply to Puerto Rico to the degree that they do on the mainland.  There never was in Puerto Rico itself the efforts to play black against brown tension that caused that to happen on the mainland.  There will be some of that thanks to Puerto Ricans who moved to mainland and then either went back or influenced the opinions of those who stayed behind, but it won't be as much of a factor as it was in the southwest.

The same effect, though, seems pretty strong in rural areas with no black population to speak of.  Is this really anti-black prejudice, or more pro-Clinton sentiment?  And could that transfer over to Puerto Rico?

[Verily]

The factors that lead to Hispanics not wanting to vote for a Black candidate just simply do not apply to Puerto Rico to the degree that they do on the mainland.  There never was in Puerto Rico itself the efforts to play black against brown tension that caused that to happen on the mainland.  There will be some of that thanks to Puerto Ricans who moved to mainland and then either went back or influenced the opinions of those who stayed behind, but it won't be as much of a factor as it was in the southwest.

The same effect, though, seems pretty strong in rural areas with no black population to speak of.  Is this really anti-black prejudice, or more pro-Clinton sentiment?  And could that transfer over to Puerto Rico?

The important thing to remember is that PR doesn't really have the "fond memories" of a Clinton presidency that the US, including places like rural Texas, does. Yes, I'm sure they thought he was okay, but PR is largely unaffected by US politics.

Incidentally, long-settled Hispanics, as in New Mexico, liked Obama, which suggests that it is the recent immigrant status that makes Hispanics like Clinton (whether for trust reasons, racial reasons or whatever). Puerto Rican Hispanics are obviously not recent immigrants.