There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls (user search)
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  There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls (search mode)
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Author Topic: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls  (Read 6413 times)
Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« on: March 07, 2008, 03:41:10 PM »

In ... Ireland  left parties have been increasing.

Nope. Not going by last year's general election anyway. Sad
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2008, 04:09:39 PM »

Sorry, I just looked at latest Angus Reid poll, and the percentage of Our Selves had increased to 8-9 %.

An Angus Reid monitored poll, it is actually a RedC poll specifically and one which I brought up here - which indeed indicates that SF actually fell 1 point since the last poll and are also 1 point beneath the final RedC poll that was carried out before the election.

In ... Ireland  left parties have been increasing.

Nope. Not going by last year's general election anyway. Sad
Unless you take that term to include all parties with a left-of-center wing of some sort. For since the PDs lost, the balance must clearly have gained.

Smiley An arguable point, though it doesn't necessarily hold. Would need to analyse a full list of those who lost and those who were new to see if such a shift is noticeable. Even within the PDs, yes they lost those undeniably on the right like McDowell, but they also lost the like of Fiona O'Malley (PD-Dún Laoghaire) who I'd have classified as someone of the left. And I actually doubt whether anyone in the PDs is to the right of new TD Leo Varadkar (FG-Dublin W).
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2008, 04:20:32 PM »

You misunderstood me. I just claimed that all the FF, FG, Greens, Labour, SF have a left wing that actually is left of center (rather than just closer to the center than the other wing is), and taken together these parties gained, not that leftwingers themselves gained.
Hardly much of a point. Cheesy

Ah, fair enough.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2008, 07:42:53 PM »

Sorry, however, SF will keep their two seats in EP.

They should hold their Northern Ireland seat certainly.

I think, at this point, that they'll lose their Dublin seat. Dublin is being reduced to a 3-seater next time, and SF just won't get a high enough 1st preference share or more importantly, enough transfers to be genuinely competitive. If the result in Dublin is anything other than 1 FF; 1 FG; 1 Lab then it will be somewhat surprising.

Maybe, just maybe, they can gain 1 in the North-West constituency. But it's too early to say - depends on whether or not Harkin runs for re-election and who else decides to run. (There's certainly 1 FF; 1 FG - the other seat could go in a number of directions).

As it stands, they'll certainly take 1 and are competitive for another, but I certainly don't think that anything so definitive as your statement can be made.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #4 on: March 08, 2008, 05:44:50 AM »

Quote
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Or as loud or as annoying.

Yet another reason not to vote FG.

At this point I would have to say that FG is to the right of FF... sadly. Many of the gains they made last time seem to come from old style small town businessagrihacks or the unbearably smug from posh snobby suburbs like Castleknock (Vardarkar) or D4 (Creighton).

As for the Left, We have one? Joe Higgins lost his seat.. SF are doing they're "we're really radical while we are also FF lite" show.. The Greens... I would finish this sentence but it would involve alot of laughing.

As Jas said, Sinn Fein will almost certainly lose their Dublin EU seat unless there is a huge anti-government swing at the next EU election. (Hard to see FG doing badly and Labour always seem to get a good bit for vote out for things like this...)
And yet again the darn Irish managed to turn a discussion into a speech about their strange political system Wink

Sorry for the hi-jack! But on behalf of the Irish delegation, I'm going to pass the buck and blame our Finnish colleague for starting it. Tongue
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