3 state elections in Germany in September
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  3 state elections in Germany in September
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Author Topic: 3 state elections in Germany in September  (Read 14477 times)
freek
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« Reply #25 on: August 26, 2004, 06:21:45 AM »
« edited: August 26, 2004, 06:22:33 AM by freek »

How does each state typically vote?

Check http://www.parties-and-elections.de/germany3.html

Smiley.
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Tory
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« Reply #26 on: August 26, 2004, 10:11:38 AM »


Thanks! Smiley
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CO-OWL
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« Reply #27 on: August 26, 2004, 11:18:55 AM »

A recent poll contained the question:
"Which party does understand the desires and problems of the people?"

Among East Germans the result was:

PDS 30%
CDU 13%
SPD   8%
Greens 8%
FDP   4%
no party 34%

This feeling is one reason for the enduring success of the PDS in East Germany.


BTW, a new Brandenburg poll has it:

PDS 36% Sad
SPD 27%
CDU 22%
Greens 4%
FDP 3%
DVU 4% Sad
other 4%
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #28 on: August 26, 2004, 11:40:23 AM »

If the PDS come first in Brandenburg, it'll probably make the news over here (beyond a minor note on the 2nd page of "European News" in the Indie...)
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Jens
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« Reply #29 on: August 26, 2004, 02:14:25 PM »

East Germany has a lot of well educated (nothing wrong with the DDR educational system) people that are potentional Green or FDP voters, but the reunification has treated them sooooo badly that they have joined up with the PDS (plus they probably are rather pissed over the lack of respect they encounter in some parts of the West German society).

I didn´t say that East Germany has no well educated people... hell, I´m one of them. Cheesy

What I wanted to say is, that the "well off" usually vote for the FDP or the Greens in a rate above average, while the PDS is more the party of the unemployed and other "losers" of the unification process.
We agree Wink
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« Reply #30 on: August 27, 2004, 10:06:20 AM »
« Edited: August 27, 2004, 10:07:26 AM by Old Europe »

BTW, a new Brandenburg poll has it:

PDS 36% Sad
SPD 27%
CDU 22%
Greens 4%
FDP 3%
DVU 4% Sad
other 4%

If the PDS come first in Brandenburg, it'll probably make the news over here (beyond a minor note on the 2nd page of "European News" in the Indie...)

Ironically, there will probably no major changes in the composition of Brandenburg´s government, IF this poll comes true. It would be the best for the SPD to simply continue their coalition with the CDU.

A CDU-PDS coalition is totally out of question and the SPD would probably never form a coalition with the PDS as their SENIOR partner, especially if there is the opportunity to keep the post of the PM for themselves...
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #31 on: August 30, 2004, 08:45:53 AM »

I had wondered why in God's name anybody would vote PDS, but I see some reasons now...

True Story: back in the mid-90's, when I was an undergraduate, one of my friends was a student from Germany. Ex-military, and Green-leftist. And when the subject of German politics came up, he would wince in disgust at the mention of the PDS, and expressed quite a negative view of it... Cheesy
One reason may be he, like most Western leftists, in fact, didn't perfectly trust these guys. History is definitely a hindrance to a PDS breakthrough in the west.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #32 on: September 05, 2004, 09:06:37 AM »

Polls will close at 6 pm in the Saarland. (High noon atlas time IIRC)
I'll get you some early results when the time comes.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #33 on: September 05, 2004, 09:34:56 AM »

Turnout seems to be very low.
According to a sample only 28% had voted by 2 pm, as opposed to 38% at the last state election and 30% at the European elections.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #34 on: September 05, 2004, 09:36:33 AM »

Turnout seems to be very low.
According to a sample only 28% had voted by 2 pm, as opposed to 38% at the last state election and 30% at the European elections.

Who d'yi think that helps?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #35 on: September 05, 2004, 09:38:40 AM »

Turnout seems to be very low.
According to a sample only 28% had voted by 2 pm, as opposed to 38% at the last state election and 30% at the European elections.

Who d'yi think that helps?
Traditionally, Greens and CDU.
In this case, hard to say.
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« Reply #36 on: September 05, 2004, 11:31:56 AM »
« Edited: September 05, 2004, 11:33:37 AM by Old Europe »

First results

CDU
ARD: 48.0%
ZDF: 47.6%
28 seats

SPD
ARD: 30.4%
ZDF: 30.4%
17 seats

Greens
ARD: 5.4%
ZDF: 5.7%
3 seats

FDP
ARD: 5.5%
ZDF: 5.3%
3 seats

NPD
ARD: 3.9%
ZDF: 4.2%
0 seats

Others
ARD: 6.8%
ZDF: 6.8%
0 seats

(ARD & ZDF are the names of two TV stations)
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #37 on: September 05, 2004, 12:18:41 PM »

Yeah, sorry. When I tried to post the exit polls, I  met with the strangest bandwidth problems...took off and cursed my computer...now I'm back...
Exit poll was
CDU 48,5
SPD 30,5
Greens 5,5
FDP 5,5
others 10,0

latest projections (two different ones) are
CDU 47.7 or 47.6
SPD 30.6 or 30.2
Greens 5.6 or 5.8
FDP 5.2 and 5.2
NPD 3.8 or 4.2

Partial results are actually already in for 3/4 of the state (I wonder how come? Don't they count ballots by hand on the Saar anymore?) and look slightly different in relevant details:
CDU 48,9
SPD 30,8
FDP 5.0
Greens 4.9
NPD 3.7
Plus they include the others...
Familienpartei (small, kinda centrist protest party - never won anything) 3.2
PDS 2.1
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #38 on: September 05, 2004, 01:05:28 PM »

Turnout's round about 56%. That's abysmal.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #39 on: September 05, 2004, 01:08:36 PM »

Partial results are actually already in for 3/4 of the state (I wonder how come? Don't they count ballots by hand on the Saar anymore?) and look slightly different in relevant details:
CDU 48,9
SPD 30,8
FDP 5.0
Greens 4.9
NPD 3.7
Plus they include the others...
Familienpartei (small, kinda centrist protest party - never won anything) 3.2
PDS 2.1
CDU 48.6
SPD 30.8
FDP 5.0
Greens 4.9
NPD 3.9

Turnout 56.3

This is the result for the state without its largest city and capital, Saarbrücken.
Which means the CDU result will go down a bit, the Green result will go up, the FDP result will probably go up a bit too. Possibly the SPD one as well.
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CO-OWL
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« Reply #40 on: September 05, 2004, 01:11:48 PM »
« Edited: September 05, 2004, 01:15:54 PM by OWL »

Partial results are actually already in for 3/4 of the state (I wonder how come? Don't they count ballots by hand on the Saar anymore?) and look slightly different in relevant details:
CDU 48,9
SPD 30,8
FDP 5.0
Greens 4.9
NPD 3.7
Plus they include the others...
Familienpartei (small, kinda centrist protest party - never won anything) 3.2
PDS 2.1
I think, Saarbrücken is still missing. It should improve the Green and FDP numbers. On the other hand the CDU will go down a bit.

Oops, Lewis was faster Smiley
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #41 on: September 05, 2004, 01:48:22 PM »

Saarbrücken is in!
Preliminary final result (not yet certified or anything)
Turnout 55,5
CDU 47.5
SPD 30.8
Greens 5.6
FDP 5.2
NPD 4.0
Familienpartei 3.0
PDS 2.3

The SPD has lost half its voters from 1999...Even the Green and FDP gains are small in terms of votes. Of course, the CDU ones again gets away with calling a loss a win.
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Jens
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« Reply #42 on: September 05, 2004, 02:47:15 PM »

Saarbrücken is in!
Preliminary final result (not yet certified or anything)
Turnout 55,5
CDU 47.5
SPD 30.8
Greens 5.6
FDP 5.2
NPD 4.0
Familienpartei 3.0
PDS 2.3

The SPD has lost half its voters from 1999...Even the Green and FDP gains are small in terms of votes. Of course, the CDU ones again gets away with calling a loss a win.
That was a horrible turnout!! Wonder what happened? And  isn't is a alarmingly good NPD-election?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #43 on: September 06, 2004, 02:00:35 AM »

Turnout's round about 56%. That's abysmal.

SPD voters staying at home because of the economic reforms?
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« Reply #44 on: September 06, 2004, 03:37:01 AM »
« Edited: September 06, 2004, 03:43:57 AM by Old Europe »

SPD voters staying at home because of the economic reforms?

Yes, that would be one of the reasons.

Aditionally, the victory of the CDU was predicted by every single opinion poll. So, it was not a very close race. I think many voters simply stayed home, because the winner was clear from the beginning.

About the NPD: Yes, these are good times for splinter parties who seek protest votes. The electorate is very much polarized and also in outrage over "Agenda 2010" and the "Hartz reforms".

I´m afraid what will happen in two weeks in Saxony. For some mysteroius reasons the NPD was always relatively strong there since re-unification.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #45 on: September 06, 2004, 04:30:42 AM »

SPD voters staying at home because of the economic reforms?

Yes, that would be one of the reasons.

Aditionally, the victory of the CDU was predicted by every single opinion poll. So, it was not a very close race. I think many voters simply stayed home, because the winner was clear from the beginning.

Yeah... interesting to note that the CDU vote stayed fairly steady from '99.

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All true. Add to that a low turnout, and you have problems... kinda like Burnley over here Sad

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I think they (or some other scary Nazi party) will win seats...
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #46 on: September 06, 2004, 05:23:47 AM »

Latest poll results

Brandenburg: http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showpoll.pl?name=ltw_bb

Saxony: http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showpoll.pl?name=ltw_sn

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CO-OWL
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« Reply #47 on: September 06, 2004, 06:43:33 AM »

With the NPD at 4% in Saarland I'm afraid it's very likely that they will get >5% in Saxony and the DVU will (again)
get >5% in Brandenburg.
Let's hope the PDS gets most of the protest votes.


At least in Saxony the SPD cannot lose 13%...
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #48 on: September 07, 2004, 04:50:41 AM »

With the NPD at 4% in Saarland I'm afraid it's very likely that they will get >5% in Saxony and the DVU will (again)
get >5% in Brandenburg.
Let's hope the PDS gets most of the protest votes.


At least in Saxony the SPD cannot lose 13%...
LOL!

Al: The CDU vote staying more or less put? Hardly.
5 years ago, 45,5% on a 70% turnout = about 32% of the electorate.
Now, 47,5% on a 55,5% turnout = just over 25% of the electorate. Granted, a lot of that is attributable to less-than-diehard CDU supporters staying home, or rather going out into the country, because Müller's win wasn't seen as in doubt and the weather was so fine, but still...
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #49 on: September 07, 2004, 04:52:08 AM »

Add to those NPD Saxony worries the fact that they got some very disreputable characters high up on the list...people with connections to the banned Neonazi organization Skinheads Sächsische Schweiz, or SSS for short.
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