3 state elections in Germany in September

[Jens]

Does it makes you wonder, when my newspaper (Politiken) has more reports from states elections in South Germany than the national elections in Canada a while ago

Joke aside - Is CDU/CSU advocating another economic policy than SPD or are people just voting against SPD? I am just wondering how CDU is going to improve thing if or when they win the national election

[Jens]

Add to those NPD Saxony worries the fact that they got some very disreputable characters high up on the list...people with connections to the banned Neonazi organization Skinheads Sächsische Schweiz, or SSS for short.

Mad people. I think that some of those neonazies also has connections with Danish and Swedish neonazies and other nice fellars

[minionofmidas]

Does it makes you wonder, when my newspaper (Politiken) has more reports from states elections in South Germany than the national elections in Canada a while ago

Joke aside - Is CDU/CSU advocating another economic policy than SPD or are people just voting against SPD? I am just wondering how CDU is going to improve thing if or when they win the national election

Basically not. On details, yes, but it's mostly more of the same medicine, not less.
Opinion polls show the people know that, too:
Pretty recent one...
Would CDU/CSU do a better job in government?
28% yes
52% no
the rest was split between a "same" option (which makes you wonder if "no" was supposed to mean "they'd do worse" - the wording is not really clear) and don't knows.

[Jens]

Does it makes you wonder, when my newspaper (Politiken) has more reports from states elections in South Germany than the national elections in Canada a while ago

Joke aside - Is CDU/CSU advocating another economic policy than SPD or are people just voting against SPD? I am just wondering how CDU is going to improve thing if or when they win the national election

Basically not. On details, yes, but it's mostly more of the same medicine, not less.
Opinion polls show the people know that, too:
Pretty recent one...
Would CDU/CSU do a better job in government?
28% yes
52% no
the rest was split between a "same" option (which makes you wonder if "no" was supposed to mean "they'd do worse" - the wording is not really clear) and don't knows.

That pussles me even more. The Germans know that the ecenomic reforms are needed and both parties (SPD/CDU) are going to go through with them. Why do they then vote CDU over SPD?

[minionofmidas]

Those that believe that (more or less) these reforms are needed, they vote CDU because that's what they've always voted...
Those who used to vote SPD, or who still do, are unhappy with these reforms. They don't go and vote CDU. They just don't go and vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al: The CDU vote staying more or less put? Hardly.
5 years ago, 45,5% on a 70% turnout = about 32% of the electorate.
Now, 47,5% on a 55,5% turnout = just over 25% of the electorate. Granted, a lot of that is attributable to less-than-diehard CDU supporters staying home, or rather going out into the country, because Müller's win wasn't seen as in doubt and the weather was so fine, but still...

I'd only looked at the %'s when I wrote that... sorry for the confusion.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Those that believe that (more or less) these reforms are needed, they vote CDU because that's what they've always voted...
Those who used to vote SPD, or who still do, are unhappy with these reforms. They don't go and vote CDU. They just don't go and vote.

Sounds like by-elections/local elections in the late '70's over here actually... replace "SPD" with "Labour", "CDU" with "Tories" and "NPD" with "National Front"...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Latest poll from Saxony:

CDU 44%
PDS 23%
SPD 12%
NPD 7%
Greens 6%
FDP 5%

This will become a weird election. According to this poll the CDU will be still the largest party by far, but they would would lose nearly 13% (1999: 56.9%) as well as their majority in the legislature.

The number of parties in the parliament would double, with the FDP and the Greens breaking the 5%-clause the first time in Saxony since the election of 1990 and the morons from the NPD breaking this threshold the first time in ANY state since the early 70ies.

[Jens]

Latest poll from Saxony:

CDU 44%
PDS 23%
SPD 12%
NPD 7%
Greens 6%
FDP 5%

This will become a weird election. According to this poll the CDU will be still the largest party by far, but they would would loose nearly 13% (1999: 56.9%) as well as their majority in the legislature.

The number of parties in the parliament would double, with the FDP and the Greens breaking the 5%-clause the first time in Saxony since the election of 1990 and the morons from the NPD breaking this threshold the first time in ANY state since the early 70ies.

Looks like the rightwing nationalist movements has arived in Germany too

[Middle-aged Europe]

Looks like the rightwing nationalist movements has arived in Germany too

Well, they were always here. Just remember the 12.9% success of the DVU in Saxony-Anhalt in the year 1998. Fortunately, they often survive only one term and get kicked out again with the following election.

[Jens]

Looks like the rightwing nationalist movements has arived in Germany too

Well, they were always here. Just remember the 12.9% success of the DVU in Saxony-Anhalt in the year 1998. Fortunately, they often survive only one term and get kicked out again with the following election.

True, I guess my point was that they are on a "positive" trend in Germany as well as many other countries like Netherlands and Denmark, where our government has its support in the Diet from a blatantly racist party Danish Peoples Party (We had the election i 1973 where DPP's predecessor  Progress Party became the second largest party in the Diet )

[freek]

True, I guess my point was that they are on a "positive" trend in Germany as well as many other countries like Netherlands

Oh? The racist parties have never been big here. I think the CD (Centre Democrats) was the largest extreme rightwing party we have ever had here, and they had 3 seats in parliament (2,5%) in 1994. Nowadays there is not such a party anymore.

The closest is "NieuwRechts" (NewRight), founded by a former LPF member, who was kicked out of the LPF for racist tendencies and connections with the Vlaams Blok. They took part in the European Parliament elections this year and scored 0,3%.

[minionofmidas]

I believe Jens was talking of LPF.
Although, to be fair, they weren't really on an upward swing at the last election.

[Jens]

I believe Jens was talking of LPF.
Although, to be fair, they weren't really on an upward swing at the last election.

True, I was talking about LPF. He might had some opinions that wasn't typical rightwing, but many of his followers voted for LPF because of the anti-emigration ideas and the "our culture is threated" retoric

[freek]

True, I was talking about LPF. He might had some opinions that wasn't typical rightwing, but many of his followers voted for LPF because of the anti-emigration ideas and the "our culture is threated" retoric

Ok, but it is better that people voted LPF than for a real extreme rightwing party. Most LPF-voters voted VVD before 2002 btw.

But ontopic again: the state elections in Sachsen and Brandenburg are next Sunday. Are there any new polls available?

[Middle-aged Europe]

But ontopic again: the state elections in Sachsen and Brandenburg are next Sunday. Are there any new polls available?

The latest polls I found:

Brandenburg (FGW, Sept. 10)
SPD 29%
PDS 27%
CDU 23%
DVU 6%
Greens 6%
FDP 5%
Others 4%

Saxony (IfM Leipzig, Sept. 11)
CDU 44%
PDS 19%
SPD 14%
NPD 7%
Greens 7%
FDP 6%
Others 3%

[minionofmidas]

These polls actually look like good news...SPD remaining strongest party in Brandenburg, CDU out of a majority in Saxony. Greens back in, too. I mean, hey, what more could you ask for?
But I fear the worst as far as the DVU and especially the NPD are concerned...I wouldn't be surprised if the b*stards scored as high as in '98 Saxony-Anhalt.

[willhsmit]

The only concern I would have would be if the NPD ended up being the deciding vote in the Parliament. (I.e., CDU/FDP has 47% of the seats, SPD/PDS/Green have 47%, NPD making the difference). However, since there are Grand Coalitions in other states, I assume the SPD and CDU could cooperate even in this case, or possibly the FDP (if it passes 5%) would defect to a left coalition.

Judging by the polls, though, if the FDP makes it past 5%, CDU/FDP will almost certainly have a majority. Only if FDP fails but the Greens and NPD both make it will the CDU have a problem. Which sounds like the CDU needs to start thinking about tactical voting. :-)

[minionofmidas]

...which for a time in the mid-to-late nineties was the only thing that kept the FDP alive...

...Early projected results...

Saxony
CDU 43,2 or 43,5
PDS 22,6 or 22,8
SPD 9,6 or 10,0
NPD 8,9 or 8,8
FDP 5,8 or 5,5
Greens 5,0 or 5,0
others 4,9 or 4,4

Brandenburg
SPD 32,6 or 32,8
PDS 28,3 or 27,8
CDU 19,6 or 19,8
DVU 6,1 or 5,7
Greens 3,4 or 3,1
FDP 3,2 or 3,7
others 6,8 or 7,1

Right wing fears have come true, CDU absolute majority in Saxony gone, CDU and SPD lose equally in Brandenburg, Greens disappointing even though they may get back in in Saxony. No info on turnout yet, I'll look though.

[minionofmidas]

Turnout appears to be about 60% in Saxony, about 50% in Brandenburg.
Greens still struggling about the 5% mark in Saxony, FDP is in. SPD *might* yet be overtaken by the NPD (makes sick noises). Still can't believe it even though I'm at the same time amazed why *anyone* should vote SPD in Saxony state elections when all they want to be is the CDU's junior partner in government.

[minionofmidas]

CDU saying they'd try to form a government with SPD, FDP or Greens.
Greens uninterested.
FDP saying they'd  join the government, but "not at any price".
SPD trying to claim this as a success since, after all, the CDU majority has been broken.

[minionofmidas]

400-odd of Saxony's 500-odd townships counted, Greens at 3,2% but that doesn't mean anything since the big cities are all missing.
For the first time in history, CDU didn't get all the direct seats in the state. PDS have definitely nicked the Hoyerswerda seat.
Have to leave in a couple a minutes...hope the Greens get in after all...

[Jens]

It looks bad for the Greens, but perhaps Sachsen (5,0 at 21.06 (ARD.de))

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NPD at 9%? ickky...
Headline on BBCNews Homepage: "German far right makes poll gains".
It's one of the top three stories...

[Jens]

NPD at 9%? ickky...
Headline on BBCNews Homepage: "German far right makes poll gains".
It's one of the top three stories...

Same thing here in Denmark. the 19 a'clock news at TV2 decribed it as: Nazies and Commies win the elections in East German States (not sure if you would call PDS communists! more left wing socialists)

Saxony at 22.53

CDU 41,1%
PDS 23,7%
SPD 9,8%
Grüne 5,0%
NPD 9,2% (Baaaaaaaaaaaaad)
FDP 5,8%

CDU and FDP at 63 of 126 seats!!! NPD 12 seats