3 state elections in Germany in September

[Middle-aged Europe]

The CDU will win in Saarland and Saxony, in both cases probably with an absolute majority.

The question in Saxony is, if the election will result in a "protest vote shock" (for example 28% for PDS and 7% for NPD or something like that...).

But Brandenburg is the really interesting of these elections because all three "major" parties (CDU, SPD, PDS) are virtually neck to neck and the outcome is totally open.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Which party are you affiliated with, Old Europe?

What do you mean with "affiliated"? I´m not a member of a particular political party. In most cases, I vote for the SPD or the Greens (at the moment I´m leaning more towards the Greens). Is it that what you wanted to know?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yes, that's what I wanted to know.

And why?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I was just wondering. It seems whenever there are Europeans on these forums they are at the left end of the European political spectrum. Bono and I are the only exceptions I can think of.

Well, I wouldn´t say "left end". The PDS is "left end". In fact, I can be fairly centrist, at least on economic issues... when I´m in the mood.

But despite the fact they are using Democratic avatars, I think they were some conservatives from Scandinavia here... but maybe that´s because most conservatives from the Nordic countries are moderate conservatives???

[Middle-aged Europe]

I don't assume they are left wing by thier Democrat avatars. I know Gustaf is a right leaning moderate by European standards. So is Huckleberry Finn I believe.

No, that´s not what I meant. You said that all but two European users (you and Bono) are left-leaning. And what I tried to say is, that they are some Scandinavian members, who, despite the fact they´re using Democratic avatars, are conservative.

I have a couple of questions if you don't mind. The PDS is the remnants of the communist party in the old DDR right? So why do the people of Brandenburg still vote for them? Wouldn't they want to rid themselves of thier communist past?

Oh, no, why do you have to start with one of the most complex political questions of post-unification Germany.

Well, first, the PDS is not totally the same party than the old SED. They got almost completely rid of their old leaders in 1989/1990 and they adapted a much more moderate platform (I think there is even a sentence in their new programme that free entrepreneurship can be a useful tool or something like that).

Second, not 100% of the East German population was in favor of overthrowing the communist regime back then. And not 100% of the East German population is voting for the PDS now. In the first free East German elections in 1990 the PDS received 16% of the vote. There are still some former Eastern bloc nations with a relatively strong communist party, for example the Czech Republic.

Third, shortly after unfication some, uh, let´s say, "cultural conflicts" between West Germans and East Germans began to appear (40 years of separation left their traces). And economically, East Germany was and is still much weaker than the West. So, some East Germans started to feel like underdogs. The PDS successfully took advantage of these feelings and began to transform itself into a party which represents the interests of the East Germans towards the federal government and the Western states.

Finally, the SPD started these "Agenda 2010" and "Hartz" reforms last year. The result was that the SPD moved very much from the left towards the center. These reforms are considered unpopular among parts of the electorate, especially in the East. So, the PDS started to fill the gap which was left behind by the SPD with protesting against these reforms. That´s what also meant with a possible "protest vote shock".

So, I think that covers it pretty much.

How do the left wingers in Berlin vote, PDS or SPD?

Well, I guess that depends on the left wingers. But the PDS is of course much, much stronger in the eastern part of the city. In fact, East Berlin is considered their most important stronghold.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Another thing that I find strange is that Saxony has a CDU majority. In the good old days it was a KPD stronghold and at one point caused the fall of the government (Stresemann 1923).

Well, between then and now lies sixty years of dictatorship (Hitler + SED rule in East Germany). After that time almost everyone who voted for the KPD in the 20ies is dead now, and all voting traditions from democratic times were erased. But I know what you mean, everyone was surprised in 1990 when the CDU first won the elections in Saxony. Aditionally, I think the strong showings of the CDU were a direct result of the popularity of Kurt "King Kurt" Biedenkopf, who was prime minister of the state for over decade.

One thing that I know about PDS is that the party to some extent resemplence the Nordic left parties Socialist People's Party (DK); Socialist Left Party (N) and Left Party(S). All parties used to be very classic socialist (workes rights, full employment ect) but managed to pick up the green movement in the eighties (except LP in Sweden) and via that a large group of well off and well educated young people.
It seems that PDS gets the vote from that group in ex-DDR and that is probably the reason why the Greens fare quite badly in East Germany. (It is a hunch. I lack scientific evidence )

Well, I wouldn´t say so. The PDS isn´t explicitly a environmentalist party (at least not more as the SPD is one), the green movement in East Germany was in opposition to the SED, and most people who vote for the PDS are not the well off, but the losers of the unification such as unemployed people. Like I said, one of the reason why the PDS is currently so strong are these government reforms, which included cutbacks in the welfare system.

In fact, the reason why the Greens AND the FDP are so weak in the east is that there are not enough voters who fit in the profile of their "usual" voters. The Greens and the FDP are parties who are both strong among the well off and the well educated. According to a recent study the Greens are even stronger among the well off than the FDP (traditionally considered to be the party of the well of).

[Middle-aged Europe]

East Germany has a lot of well educated (nothing wrong with the DDR educational system) people that are potentional Green or FDP voters, but the reunification has treated them sooooo badly that they have joined up with the PDS (plus they probably are rather pissed over the lack of respect they encounter in some parts of the West German society).

I didn´t say that East Germany has no well educated people... hell, I´m one of them.

What I wanted to say is, that the "well off" usually vote for the FDP or the Greens in a rate above average, while the PDS is more the party of the unemployed and other "losers" of the unification process.

[Middle-aged Europe]

BTW, a new Brandenburg poll has it:

PDS 36%
SPD 27%
CDU 22%
Greens 4%
FDP 3%
DVU 4%
other 4%

If the PDS come first in Brandenburg, it'll probably make the news over here (beyond a minor note on the 2nd page of "European News" in the Indie...)

Ironically, there will probably no major changes in the composition of Brandenburg´s government, IF this poll comes true. It would be the best for the SPD to simply continue their coalition with the CDU.

A CDU-PDS coalition is totally out of question and the SPD would probably never form a coalition with the PDS as their SENIOR partner, especially if there is the opportunity to keep the post of the PM for themselves...

[Middle-aged Europe]

First results

CDU
ARD: 48.0%
ZDF: 47.6%
28 seats

SPD
ARD: 30.4%
ZDF: 30.4%
17 seats

Greens
ARD: 5.4%
ZDF: 5.7%
3 seats

FDP
ARD: 5.5%
ZDF: 5.3%
3 seats

NPD
ARD: 3.9%
ZDF: 4.2%
0 seats

Others
ARD: 6.8%
ZDF: 6.8%
0 seats

(ARD & ZDF are the names of two TV stations)

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPD voters staying at home because of the economic reforms?

Yes, that would be one of the reasons.

Aditionally, the victory of the CDU was predicted by every single opinion poll. So, it was not a very close race. I think many voters simply stayed home, because the winner was clear from the beginning.

About the NPD: Yes, these are good times for splinter parties who seek protest votes. The electorate is very much polarized and also in outrage over "Agenda 2010" and the "Hartz reforms".

I´m afraid what will happen in two weeks in Saxony. For some mysteroius reasons the NPD was always relatively strong there since re-unification.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Latest poll results

Brandenburg: http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showpoll.pl?name=ltw_bb

Saxony: http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showpoll.pl?name=ltw_sn

[Middle-aged Europe]

Latest poll from Saxony:

CDU 44%
PDS 23%
SPD 12%
NPD 7%
Greens 6%
FDP 5%

This will become a weird election. According to this poll the CDU will be still the largest party by far, but they would would lose nearly 13% (1999: 56.9%) as well as their majority in the legislature.

The number of parties in the parliament would double, with the FDP and the Greens breaking the 5%-clause the first time in Saxony since the election of 1990 and the morons from the NPD breaking this threshold the first time in ANY state since the early 70ies.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Looks like the rightwing nationalist movements has arived in Germany too

Well, they were always here. Just remember the 12.9% success of the DVU in Saxony-Anhalt in the year 1998. Fortunately, they often survive only one term and get kicked out again with the following election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

But ontopic again: the state elections in Sachsen and Brandenburg are next Sunday. Are there any new polls available?

The latest polls I found:

Brandenburg (FGW, Sept. 10)
SPD 29%
PDS 27%
CDU 23%
DVU 6%
Greens 6%
FDP 5%
Others 4%

Saxony (IfM Leipzig, Sept. 11)
CDU 44%
PDS 19%
SPD 14%
NPD 7%
Greens 7%
FDP 6%
Others 3%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Preliminary election results:

Brandenburg (turnout: 56.6%)
SPD 31.9% / 33 seats
PDS 28.0% / 29 seats
CDU 19.4% / 20 seats
DVU 6.1% / 6 seats
Greens 3.6% / 0 seats
FDP 3.3% / 0 seats

It is expected that the SPD/CDU coalition will be continued, but we shouldn´t completely outrule the possibility of a SPD/PDS coalition, although this seems more or less unlikely at the moment.


Saxony (turnout: 59.6%)
CDU 41.1% / 55 seats
PDS 23.6% / 31 seats
SPD 9.8% / 13 seats
NPD 9.2% / 12 seats
FDP 5.9% / 7 seats
Greens 5.1% / 6 seats

At the moment, it is expected that the SPD will join a coalition with the CDU, because CDU + FDP would need exactly one additional seat to have a majority.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Interesting:
The CDU won 55 out of 60 districts. If they had only won 54  districts, CDU + FDP would have reached a majority! (54 + 7 = 61 out of 121 seats)
In this case the CDU would lose 1 extra ("Uberhang-") seat, and the PDS as well as the SPD 1 compensation ("Ausgleichs-")seat, thus reducing the total number of seats from 124 to 121.

Yeah, I heard that too. We Germans with our funny electoral systems!