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  November - McCain vs Obama
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Author Topic: November - McCain vs Obama  (Read 12434 times)
agcatter
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« on: March 09, 2008, 01:28:21 pm »
« edited: March 09, 2008, 02:08:56 pm by agcatter »

West coast:  Obama sweeps.   Stronger than Hillary vs McCain in Washington and Oregon.  Mountain states:  No race here.  Colorado the exception.  Only battleground state here.  Leans McCain in November.     
                                                                                                                                                        Southwest: Arizona obviously not in play.  Nevada very close.  New Mexico leans Obama, but McCain can still win the state whereas he couldn't against Clinton.  Obama still the favorite 
       
Farm states:  McCain sweeps.  Obama did well in the primaries and caucuses but that was amongst Dems.  Exception is Iowa.  McCain had a very good chance against Hillary.  Slim to none vs Obama.  I guess that means it isn't a sweep after all.
                                                                                                                                                            Upper midwest:  Wisconsin will be relatively close but Obama wins by 5 this time.  Minn goes to Obama by 7 or so.  One of those areas where Obama runs significantly stronger than Hillary.Michigan goes to Obama about the same as Kerry carried it.  Shouldn't be that close due to the economy but race keeps it closer. 
                                                                                                                                                            South:  A blowout.  Not worth discussing with two exceptions.  Virginia will be for McCain by 3-5 in the end.  Webb was tied with Allen but Webb ran as a right leading centrist.  Obama isn't close to pulling that off.  Arkansas would have been Clinton's but that's over. 

                                                                                                                                                          Border states:  Oklahoma, Kentucky, West Virginia all blowouts due to race.  Missouri will be the one to watch.  It always is and it will be close - probably to McCain by 2 -3 in the end.  Race again.
                                                                                                                                                   Northeast:  See South.  Despite what some Dems think McCain is popular in NH and that  state will be a couple of points type race - won by Obama.  NJ will be reasonably close, but anyone who actually believes McCain will win there is smoking something.  NJ is the ultimate tease for Republicans.   

The big three that generally determine the race.                                                                             Florida - not this time.  McCain will win comfortably.  This gives the GOP a welcome and unexpected oasis in a tough year.                                                                                                                         Ohio -Close as always but it's here that McCain gets a break with Obama's nomination.  McCain will make inroads with working class Democrats.  Race, pure and simple.  The other help is rural Dems in the Southeast portion of the states - see Kentucky and West Virginia.  I like McCain's chances here.                                                                                                                                                      Pennsylvania - tossup.  Wouldn't be due to economy but race again.  McCain will cut into the same working class demographic in industrial areas that he does in Ohio.

There you have it.  Notice I didn't pick a winner.  It will be too damn close to do that.
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Alcon
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« Reply #1 on: March 09, 2008, 01:38:37 pm »

Obama should outperform Kerry in the "farm states."

I don't know what state you're referring to in "the Northeast," but I may disagree there.

Otherwise, I agree that it's as good of a prediction as can currently be made.
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agcatter
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« Reply #2 on: March 09, 2008, 01:40:17 pm »

whoops.  I meant NH.
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Alcon
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« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2008, 01:43:05 pm »

Then this all pretty much my current prediction, too (although again I think Obama will make several solid GOP states west of the Mississippi closer, but not close).
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #4 on: March 09, 2008, 01:44:19 pm »

What about NM?  I see that state going to Obama by around 51-48, 52-47.
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Verily
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« Reply #5 on: March 09, 2008, 01:44:35 pm »

Assuming a close race = a bad idea. We could see blowouts from either direction in Obama v McCain.
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Alcon
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« Reply #6 on: March 09, 2008, 01:46:28 pm »

What about NM?  I see that state going to Obama by around 51-48, 52-47.

He...wrote about New Mexico.  Tongue

Assuming a close race = a bad idea. We could see blowouts from either direction in Obama v McCain.

It's certainly possible, but right now I think a close race is the most likely, so it's what I'm making predictions based on.
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agcatter
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« Reply #7 on: March 09, 2008, 01:51:42 pm »

I would agree that Obama runs better in the Republican states of Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Kansas, the Dakotas than did Kerry - probably 6 or 7 pts worth as it stands now.
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agcatter
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« Reply #8 on: March 09, 2008, 01:55:36 pm »

Yes, the election could break one way or the other.

McCain has health problems or economy really nosedives helps Obama.

An international crisis or terrorist attack on American soil obviously helps McCain.

There's also the possibility that one of the two candidates says something incredibly stupid in a debate.
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« Reply #9 on: March 09, 2008, 02:01:19 pm »

I have been surprised by the popularity of Obama among North Dakotans.  He certainly won't win the state, but he could make it closer than it has been in a long while.
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Dirty Dan
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« Reply #10 on: March 09, 2008, 02:04:37 pm »

It will probably come down to Colorado or Nevada this year.
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JSojourner
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« Reply #11 on: March 09, 2008, 04:47:08 pm »

Ag,

That's a super analysis.  I pretty much agree.  Well done.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #12 on: March 09, 2008, 06:29:17 pm »

Then this all pretty much my current prediction, too (although again I think Obama will make several solid GOP states west of the Mississippi closer, but not close).

For purposes of predicting a winner this doesn't really matter much though, since none of those are really close enough to be interesting.
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Alcon
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« Reply #13 on: March 09, 2008, 06:34:17 pm »

Then this all pretty much my current prediction, too (although again I think Obama will make several solid GOP states west of the Mississippi closer, but not close).

For purposes of predicting a winner this doesn't really matter much though, since none of those are really close enough to be interesting.

Of course.  I only added that because "but that was among Dems" implied to me (wrongly) that he thought that Obama wouldn't perform any better in the region.

I think I totally agree with ag, though.

I kind of like analyzing even the non-competitive states, since the competitive states are typically so few.  Tongue
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #14 on: March 09, 2008, 06:50:37 pm »

For a 50-50 map, this is quite reasonable.  I have some minor issues here and there, and a couple of other interesting tidbits I would include, but nothing big.

I can't see Obama winning Florida in a 50-50 contest, in fact, I would bet serious money against it.

So it would come down to Ohio and Pennsylvania.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #15 on: March 09, 2008, 06:54:49 pm »

Then this all pretty much my current prediction, too (although again I think Obama will make several solid GOP states west of the Mississippi closer, but not close).

sure, I could see that. Here's how:
KS - 57-43
NE - 61-39
SD - 58-42
ND - 60-40
MT - 58-42
ID - 62-38
UT - 65-35
WY - 61-39

I doubt that any of these would get closer than those margins
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War on Want
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« Reply #16 on: March 09, 2008, 07:00:59 pm »

KS - 55-44
NE - 60-40
SD - 55-45
ND - 54-46
MT - 55-45
ID - 59-41
UT - 64-36
WY - 60-40
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agcatter
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« Reply #17 on: March 09, 2008, 07:50:38 pm »

2000 and 2004 were pretty much the same dynamics.  Same battleground states.

2008 - as Michael Barone has stated, different dynamics.  Can Obama steal away Colorado?  Can McCain carry Pennsylvania?

Much more interesting election in my opinion.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #18 on: March 09, 2008, 08:11:39 pm »

2000 and 2004 were pretty much the same dynamics.  Same battleground states.

2008 - as Michael Barone has stated, different dynamics.  Can Obama steal away Colorado?  Can McCain carry Pennsylvania?

Much more interesting election in my opinion.

Even Hillary would be much more interesting.  You take Colorado and Virginia off the table and replace them with the upper South and the Pacific Northwest.  I also suspect the upper Midwest will be more in play and New Hampshire probably flips.  PA probably goes off the table and Florida moves back on the table.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #19 on: March 09, 2008, 08:32:25 pm »

To presume that this election can't be another close one simply because... "it can't" is kind of silly. My belief all the way along is that Obama would do better in the popular vote, but Clinton would do better in the EV.

There are two things that many should be VERY concerned about- McCain's appeal to latinos and to moderate/conservative democrats.

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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #20 on: March 09, 2008, 09:19:01 pm »

The one state won by Kerry in 2004 which worries me as to whether Obama can hold it is Pennsylvania, which for any Democratic presidential nominee is a pivotol state


There are two things that many should be VERY concerned about- McCain's appeal to latinos and to moderate/conservative democrats.

Obama has a Latino problem in the Democratic primaries, that much is obvious. Question is are they, generic, Democratic voters or, exclusively, Clinton voters? If they are the latter, he does have problems come the general; while McCain will not be the anathema to Latino voters that many other Republican presidential nominees would be

Indeed, Democratic primary voters are 'divided', demographically, between Obama [male, younger, African American, upscale/higher educated) and Clinton (female, older, Latino, downscale/lower educated) but not ideologically

But to what extent are Obama and Clinton voters 1) candidate exclusive or 2) Democratic candidate generic come November? That's the great 'unknown' - and yes, it is a matter of concern Sad

As for moderate and conservative Democrats, I'm not so sure they find Obama that much of an anathema. From what I've seen of the exit polls, it's not a case of Obama dominating the liberal Democratic primary vote with Clinton dominating among moderate and conservative primary voters

Dave
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Dirty Dan
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« Reply #21 on: March 09, 2008, 09:34:29 pm »

Remember. 1876, 1880, 1884, 1888 were all decided by 3 points and one state. Then again, this was all 120, 130 years ago. I mean, the all either came down to SC, IN or NY.  Since then, 1916 came down to 55 votes in  NH. In 1960, the election was decided by 100000 votes, but Kennedy was way ahead in EVs. 1976 was as close as 2004, but there wasn't decided by one state.

Since then, this series of elections have been the first time since 1888 where back-to-back elections were decided by one state.

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Flying Dog
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« Reply #22 on: March 09, 2008, 10:04:05 pm »

Don't base your predictions off of 2000 and 2004. Too many different dynamics at play here.
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Dirty Dan
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« Reply #23 on: March 09, 2008, 10:42:17 pm »

Also, Obama can match McCain in terms of how many indies and moderate GOPPers he can take....Obama will probably do as well with some rural midwesterners and westerners as McCain does with hispanics. Look at this map, for example-



In rural SW Illy, Obama did quite well...

Kerry didn't-
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Gustaf
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« Reply #24 on: March 10, 2008, 11:43:10 am »

Also, Obama can match McCain in terms of how many indies and moderate GOPPers he can take....Obama will probably do as well with some rural midwesterners and westerners as McCain does with hispanics. Look at this map, for example-



In rural SW Illy, Obama did quite well...

Kerry didn't-

alan keyes
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