PA-American Research Group: Clinton leads Obama by 11

[Tender Branson]

Clinton - 52%
Obama - 41%

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 59% to 38% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 63% to 27%.

Clinton leads 63% to 29% among white voters (78% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 89% to 7% among African American voters (18% of likely Democratic primary voters).

Clinton leads 47% to 45% among voters age 18 to 49 (55% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 58% to 37% among voters age 50 and older.

16% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 28% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

http://americanresearchgroup.com

[Keystone Phil]

Why not simply put ARG?

[Tender Branson]

Why not simply put ARG?

Does it matter ?

[Keystone Phil]

Why not simply put ARG?

Does it matter ?

Deception 

[they don't love you like i love you]

Ha, so Obama can take Pennsylvania fter all!

[Adlai Stevenson]

Obama really needs men to come out for him in Pennsylvania.  He probably can't win it over Clinton, but the reason he lost Texas and Ohio was because women made up 57% and 59% of the Primary electorate in those states respectively. 

[Keystone Phil]

Ha, so Obama can take Pennsylvania fter all!

Uh, or Hillary's lead is double.

[Tender Branson]

Obama really needs men to come out for him in Pennsylvania.  He probably can't win it over Clinton, but the reason he lost Texas and Ohio was because women made up 57% and 59% of the Primary electorate in those states respectively. 

Just like in every other state so far. Adjusted for 60% women, Clinton actually leads by 15% - if not more ...

[agcatter]

28% of white voters say they will never vote for Obama in the general.  28% of white Democrats.

Uh oh.  Think there is something to this race thing?  You better believe there is.

This is what some Dem leaders have been worrying about in Ohio and Pennsylvania.  Still not too late for the super delegates to go to Clinton.

But please don't.  Barack all the way.

[they don't love you like i love you]

28% of white voters say they will never vote for Obama in the general.  28% of white Democrats.

It's ARG.

[8 out of 11 is not deserved]

One thing about this race, the word momentum doesn't exist for either candidate.  I expected Clinton to go back to her pre 3/4 win leads of 15-20% in PA.  

Victory in PA would be nice but a close loss works also.

[agcatter]

Keep telling yourself that "its ARG".  Just ARG.  No problem here.  Move on.

[Jake]

Obama really needs men to come out for him in Pennsylvania.  He probably can't win it over Clinton, but the reason he lost Texas and Ohio was because women made up 57% and 59% of the Primary electorate in those states respectively. 

Women make up that part of the electorate of the Democratic Party.

Anyway, Obama needs GOP crossovers to even think about winning the popular vote. Haven't looked at the delegate race enough to say much there.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Keep telling yourself that "its ARG".  Just ARG.  No problem here.  Move on.

Yes, ARG is a credible pollster. LOL.

[agcatter]

No crossovers in Pennsylvania.

[Tender Branson]

28% of white voters say they will never vote for Obama in the general.  28% of white Democrats.

Uh oh.  Think there is something to this race thing?  You better believe there is.

and 28% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

[agcatter]

ARG isn't showing anything other pollsters aren't showing in the industrial staes.  ARG is just the messenger - one of many BTW.

[Alcon]

ARG isn't showing anything other pollsters aren't showing in the industrial staes.

Which is the only thing that gives this poll even slight credibility.

[© tweed]

28% of white voters say they will never vote for Obama in the general.  28% of white Democrats.

exits suggest that Bush won 15% of the Democratic vote in PA in 2004.  figure that nearly all the Democrats that voted Bush were whites, add in the large MoE for the subsample that you just cited, and that 28% figure no longer looks so stunning.

[agcatter]

And if it's 20% of Dems that jump ship, Obama loses Pennsylvania.  It wasn't exactly a landslide last time.

But hey, Republicans have one opening to win the White House.  The nomination of Obama gives the GOP that one opening.  Pennsylvania and Ohio plus it nails down Florida.  Obama runs better in other red states but so what?  He isn't gonna carry Kansas.  He wins Washington and Oregon by 8 or 10 istead of 5.  Again, so what?  Plus West Virginia is solid which it might not have been with Hillary and the Republicans get back the certain loss of Arkansas.  McCain has a slight shot at NM which he had NO shot with Hillary.  The only plus is Obama runs better in Colorado but the GOP has a better chance of winning Pa than Obama has in Col.  Obama runs better than Hillary among independents.  Hillary will run better among blue collar Dems than Obama.   Given the distribution of those two domographics as far as where the electoral vote are, McCain has a better shot against Obama than Hillary.

I just like the way the popular vote is distributed vs Obama.  What I am saying is not exactly original.

But relax guys - we're all pulling for the same guy to be the nominee  - just for different reasons.

[© tweed]

And if it's 20% of Dems that jump ship, Obama loses Pennsylvania.  It wasn't exactly a landslide last time.

that assumes black turnout would be no better and Obama fares no better among independents and Republicans.

[agcatter]

Look, all I'm saying is that McCain runs better in Pennsylvania and Ohio because of what happens with white working class Democrats.

Two weeks ago Survey USA did the head to heads McCain vs Hillary, McCain vs Obama in Ohio.  It showed whites making up 86% of the Ohio electorate.  Clinton won whites by 4, Obama lost whites by 7.  Clinton lost 10% of Democrats.  Obama lost 21%.  Obama has a problem with working class Democratic white voters.  In big industrial states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and to lesser extent Michigan and New Jersey this is McCain's opening.  Against Hillary I think he's toast.  Against Obama he has a chance and that's not some way out poll from ARG.  Hell, you really think Obama's pollsters wouldn't tell you the same thing?

One other thing.  The 86% of whites polled in Ohio did include white independents obviously.  Obama was running about 5 pts better among independents than was Hillary.  This just underscores, given McCain's overall lead among all white voters, how pronounced is Obama's loss is among white Democrats.

[Smash255]

And if it's 20% of Dems that jump ship, Obama loses Pennsylvania.  It wasn't exactly a landslide last time.

But hey, Republicans have one opening to win the White House.  The nomination of Obama gives the GOP that one opening.  Pennsylvania and Ohio plus it nails down Florida.  Obama runs better in other red states but so what?  He isn't gonna carry Kansas.  He wins Washington and Oregon by 8 or 10 istead of 5.  Again, so what?  Plus West Virginia is solid which it might not have been with Hillary and the Republicans get back the certain loss of Arkansas.  McCain has a slight shot at NM which he had NO shot with Hillary.  The only plus is Obama runs better in Colorado but the GOP has a better chance of winning Pa than Obama has in Col.  Obama runs better than Hillary among independents.  Hillary will run better among blue collar Dems than Obama.   Given the distribution of those two domographics as far as where the electoral vote are, McCain has a better shot against Obama than Hillary.

I just like the way the popular vote is distributed vs Obama.  What I am saying is not exactly original.

But relax guys - we're all pulling for the same guy to be the nominee  - just for different reasons.

First off again their was no mention of 28% of Democratic voters not voting for Obama in the General that was the PRIMARY.  Secondly even if 20% of Democrats jump ship in PA with Obama (which I don't think will) he makes that up by running better with Independents than Kerry did.  To suggest at this point McCain has a better chance of taking PA than Obama does of taking Colorado is just hackish silliness.

[agcatter]

Really?  Given that Bush carried Colorado by 5 and Kerry carried Pennsylvania by 3, what exactly is silly about it?

[Jake]

No crossovers in Pennsylvania.

Re-registers are possible for another few weeks.