Look, all I'm saying is that McCain runs better in Pennsylvania and Ohio because of what happens with white working class Democrats.
I agree that he will. I just think Obama goes at this thing with a slightly different coalition than we are used to and that will help him in Virginia and out West...
Kerry2004 + CO + NM + NV = 271
Plus Iowa. There's a very good chance Obama can pick that state up.
completely forgot that Kerry lost that. so yeah, that makes 278 (which means he can lose CO and send it to the HOR, which likely would elect him if I have my delegations right).
Except that you just said that Obama is more likely to win OH than PA. So Kerry + CO + NM + NV + IA + OH - PA = 277....which would mean he needs CO in order to win. He can't really afford to lose CO if he doesn't win PA.
