PA-American Research Group: Clinton leads Obama by 11

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28% of white voters say they will never vote for Obama in the general.  28% of white Democrats.

Uh oh.  Think there is something to this race thing?  You better believe there is.

This is what some Dem leaders have been worrying about in Ohio and Pennsylvania.  Still not too late for the super delegates to go to Clinton.

But please don't.  Barack all the way.

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Keep telling yourself that "its ARG".  Just ARG.  No problem here.  Move on.

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No crossovers in Pennsylvania.

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ARG isn't showing anything other pollsters aren't showing in the industrial staes.  ARG is just the messenger - one of many BTW.

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And if it's 20% of Dems that jump ship, Obama loses Pennsylvania.  It wasn't exactly a landslide last time.

But hey, Republicans have one opening to win the White House.  The nomination of Obama gives the GOP that one opening.  Pennsylvania and Ohio plus it nails down Florida.  Obama runs better in other red states but so what?  He isn't gonna carry Kansas.  He wins Washington and Oregon by 8 or 10 istead of 5.  Again, so what?  Plus West Virginia is solid which it might not have been with Hillary and the Republicans get back the certain loss of Arkansas.  McCain has a slight shot at NM which he had NO shot with Hillary.  The only plus is Obama runs better in Colorado but the GOP has a better chance of winning Pa than Obama has in Col.  Obama runs better than Hillary among independents.  Hillary will run better among blue collar Dems than Obama.   Given the distribution of those two domographics as far as where the electoral vote are, McCain has a better shot against Obama than Hillary.

I just like the way the popular vote is distributed vs Obama.  What I am saying is not exactly original.

But relax guys - we're all pulling for the same guy to be the nominee  - just for different reasons.

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Look, all I'm saying is that McCain runs better in Pennsylvania and Ohio because of what happens with white working class Democrats.

Two weeks ago Survey USA did the head to heads McCain vs Hillary, McCain vs Obama in Ohio.  It showed whites making up 86% of the Ohio electorate.  Clinton won whites by 4, Obama lost whites by 7.  Clinton lost 10% of Democrats.  Obama lost 21%.  Obama has a problem with working class Democratic white voters.  In big industrial states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and to lesser extent Michigan and New Jersey this is McCain's opening.  Against Hillary I think he's toast.  Against Obama he has a chance and that's not some way out poll from ARG.  Hell, you really think Obama's pollsters wouldn't tell you the same thing?

One other thing.  The 86% of whites polled in Ohio did include white independents obviously.  Obama was running about 5 pts better among independents than was Hillary.  This just underscores, given McCain's overall lead among all white voters, how pronounced is Obama's loss is among white Democrats.

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Really?  Given that Bush carried Colorado by 5 and Kerry carried Pennsylvania by 3, what exactly is silly about it?

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Close election.