Secondly even if 20% of Democrats jump ship in PA with Obama (which I don't think will) he makes that up by running better with Independents than Kerry did. To suggest at this point McCain has a better chance of taking PA than Obama does of taking Colorado is just hackish silliness.
But the independents that go for McCain will neutralize that.
Except PA is a closed primary.
lol
I expect Obama to take Nevada and Iowa. New Mexico I'm unsure of. I suspect it could be an uphill battle for Obama, given all his trouble with Hispanics. Doesn't seem like a perfect fit for McCain either though. On my current random whim I'd expect Obama to do slightly better in Pennsylvania than in New Mexico though. Regardless, I think Pennsylvania could be the Ohio of this year, in that either candidate will be able to win by swinging it, so it will get most of the attention.
