PA PrimD: Survey USA: Clinton far ahead of Obama

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Survey USA on 2008-03-10

Summary:

Clinton:	55%
Obama:	36%
Other:	6%
Undecided:	3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

North-West PA:

Clinton: 79%
Obama: 19%

South-West PA:

Clinton: 58%
Obama: 27%

West-Central PA:

Clinton: 76%
Obama: 17%

South-Central PA:

Clinton: 55%
Obama: 40%

North-East PA:

Clinton: 58%
Obama: 33%

South-East PA:

Clinton: 48%
Obama: 46%

[Tender Branson]

If you ask me: A lost cause.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Ouch.

[Sam Spade]

About what I would expect (maybe a little high, but...).  Still time to get it closer, obviously.  But we all know how many problems he's going to have in west PA and NE PA.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

He's got a month to campaign there and he has an assload of money still.  PA's demographics are great for Hillary and the campaign there hasn't even started.  Give it a week or two. 

[Alcon]

Has Obama started campaigning here?  If so, to what degree?

[Democratic Hawk]

Could PA be any worse for Obama than OH? There is, of course, ample time for Obama to campaign and close the gap

Dave

[agcatter]

Interesting.  Wow.  80% of the vote is white and Obama gets 29% of it?  Fortunately all those white Democrats will all come back home in November and vote for Obama.

Yeah, sure they will.

[Jake]

Could PA be any worse for Obama than OH? There is, of course, ample time for Obama to campaign and close the gap

Dave

Actually, yeah it could. PA is closed which will reduce crossovers by a significant amount simply because Obama now has two weeks to re-register independents and Republicans where they could simply request to change affiliation at the polling station. Pennsylvania also has a slightly smaller percentage of blacks and unlike in Ohio, Obama won't have the endorsement and machine of the mayors of the bigger cities (Rendell, Nutter, and Street are backing Hillary; Mallory and Jackson backed Obama).

All in all, it could get very ugly for Obama, like 15 point margin ugly.

[Democratic Hawk]

Could PA be any worse for Obama than OH? There is, of course, ample time for Obama to campaign and close the gap

Dave

Actually, yeah it could. PA is closed which will reduce crossovers by a significant amount simply because Obama now has two weeks to re-register independents and Republicans where they could simply request to change affiliation at the polling station. Pennsylvania also has a slightly smaller percentage of blacks and unlike in Ohio, Obama won't have the endorsement and machine of the mayors of the bigger cities (Rendell, Nutter, and Street are backing Hillary; Mallory and Jackson backed Obama).

All in all, it could get very ugly for Obama, like 15 point margin ugly.

I read a commentary by G. Terry Madonna of Franklin & Marshall College and it would seem that Obama must ramp up big margins in Philadelphia and its suburbs as well as doing well in what he calls the swing areas: the Lehigh Valley (Allentown) region and south-central PA (Lancaster, Dauphin, Cumberland and York) to stand even a hope of winning the primary

Obviously, white blue collar Democrats, and regions in which they are dominant, gravitate towards Clinton in a Democratic primary- but how does that bode well for Obama in a general, given that homogenously white areas are absent of the racial cleavages that could work against him?

Nevertheless, given that an ugly a win for Clinton could have wide reaching implications for Obama should he be the Democratic nominee, couldn't it still overstate her strength as a general election candidate in PA?

I know this is SUSA but the most recent Rasmussen general election poll; Feb 17, i.e. before Clinton's big OH and TX comeback) had:

Obama 49% / McCain 39%

McCain 44% / Clinton 42%

A new poll is to be released tomorrow and I'd be surprised if Clinton isn't up and Obama down against McCain

Clinton has certainly received a huge bounce in the PA Democratic primary, leading by 52 to 37 (March 6) but only by 46 to 42 (February 28)

Dave

[they don't love you like i love you]

Interesting.  Wow.  80% of the vote is white and Obama gets 29% of it?  Fortunately all those white Democrats will all come back home in November and vote for Obama.

Yeah, sure they will.

How's that anymore ridiculous than expecting the black vote to come back to Hillary (which she gets an even lower percentage of)?

[Tender Branson]

Could PA be any worse for Obama than OH? There is, of course, ample time for Obama to campaign and close the gap

Dave

Actually, yeah it could. PA is closed which will reduce crossovers by a significant amount simply because Obama now has two weeks to re-register independents and Republicans where they could simply request to change affiliation at the polling station. Pennsylvania also has a slightly smaller percentage of blacks and unlike in Ohio, Obama won't have the endorsement and machine of the mayors of the bigger cities (Rendell, Nutter, and Street are backing Hillary; Mallory and Jackson backed Obama).

All in all, it could get very ugly for Obama, like 15 point margin ugly.

I read a commentary by G. Terry Madonna of Franklin & Marshall College and it would seem that Obama must ramp up big margins in Philadelphia and its suburbs as well as doing well in what he calls the swing areas: the Lehigh Valley (Allentown) region and south-central PA (Lancaster, Dauphin, Cumberland and York) to stand even a hope of winning the primary

Obviously, white blue collar Democrats, and regions in which they are dominant, gravitate towards Clinton in a Democratic primary- but how does that bode well for Obama in a general, given that homogenously white areas are absent of the racial cleavages that could work against him?

Nevertheless, given that an ugly a win for Clinton could have wide reaching implications for Obama should he be the Democratic nominee, couldn't it still overstate her strength as a general election candidate in PA?

I know this is SUSA but the most recent Rasmussen general election poll; Feb 17, i.e. before Clinton's big OH and TX comeback) had:

Obama 49% / McCain 39%

McCain 44% / Clinton 42%

A new poll is to be released tomorrow and I'd be surprised if Clinton isn't up and Obama down against McCain

Clinton has certainly received a huge bounce in the PA Democratic primary, leading by 52 to 37 (March 6) but only by 46 to 42 (February 28)

Dave

I think both should be more or less tied or ahead of McCain tomorrow. Maybe Obama by 0-3%, Clinton by 3-8%.

[Democratic Hawk]

Interesting.  Wow.  80% of the vote is white and Obama gets 29% of it?  Fortunately all those white Democrats will all come back home in November and vote for Obama.

Yeah, sure they will.

How's that anymore ridiculous than expecting the black vote to come back to Hillary (which she gets an even lower percentage of)?

Unfortunately, there appear to be signs that Obama, as of now, could face more difficulty attracting Clinton voters in November than Clinton would Obama's

Dave

[Alcon]

Interesting.  Wow.  80% of the vote is white and Obama gets 29% of it?  Fortunately all those white Democrats will all come back home in November and vote for Obama.

Yeah, sure they will.

How's that anymore ridiculous than expecting the black vote to come back to Hillary (which she gets an even lower percentage of)?

It's more reflexively Democratic?  It's not as if Democrats are bleeding margins among blacks as they are among, say, white voters in industrial Penn.

[Keystone Phil]

South-East PA:

Clinton: 48%
Obama: 46%

LOL!

Great results overall, of course.

[Sam Spade]

Gotta love uni pollsters who act like they actually know something...

[Alcon]

Gotta love uni pollsters who act like they actually know something...

?

The University of SurveyUSA?

[Democratic Hawk]

I think both should be more or less tied or ahead of McCain tomorrow. Maybe Obama by 0-3%, Clinton by 3-8%.

I'd like to think that Obama is going to be further ahead than Clinton. It reaffirms that come a general, he'd do better among men, Independents and cross-over Republicans than she would but given that , as of now, she has such a commanding advantage in the primary I'm not optimistic

In January's Rasmussen, McCain led Clinton 48% to 42%; Obama, 46% to 38% but it was very different last month with Obama leading McCain 49% to 39% with Clinton trailing 44% to 42%

So if Obama is still ahead of McCain, tomorrow, I'll be

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Gotta love uni pollsters who act like they actually know something...

Who's that? G. Terry Madonna?

Dave

[Sam Spade]

Gotta love uni pollsters who act like they actually know something...

?

The University of SurveyUSA?

Nah, I was talking about the commentary Hawk posted.

[Democratic Hawk]

Gotta love uni pollsters who act like they actually know something...

?

The University of SurveyUSA?

Nah, I was talking about the commentary Hawk posted.

I'm not a uni pollster

Speaking of uni polling, that of Indiana State for IN-08 in 2006, was ridiculed, IIRC, for overstating Ellsworth's lead over Hostettler, by 15% than 23%, but come the day it was 61% to 39%. No-one else predicted a 22% winning margin

Dave

[Keystone Phil]

Gotta love uni pollsters who act like they actually know something...

Who's that? G. Terry Madonna?

Dave

Haha...Madonna does know something! He is a political idol here. 

[Smash255]

Could PA be any worse for Obama than OH? There is, of course, ample time for Obama to campaign and close the gap

Dave

Actually, yeah it could. PA is closed which will reduce crossovers by a significant amount simply because Obama now has two weeks to re-register independents and Republicans where they could simply request to change affiliation at the polling station. Pennsylvania also has a slightly smaller percentage of blacks and unlike in Ohio, Obama won't have the endorsement and machine of the mayors of the bigger cities (Rendell, Nutter, and Street are backing Hillary; Mallory and Jackson backed Obama).

All in all, it could get very ugly for Obama, like 15 point margin ugly.

I remember reading that large numbers of Republicans and Independents (upwards of 40,000) have recently switched to Democratic, likely to vote in the Dem Primary.  I would bet a high % of these would be in SEPA.  The black population is about 1% higher in Ohio than Pennsylvania, however PA does have a larger amount of middle to upper middle class whites than Ohio does.  They both have a large working class white population which Clinton obviously will do very well in PA as she did in Ohio, but you really don't have an area in Ohio like suburban philly, which is an area Obama will do quite well in.

[Keystone Phil]

but you really don't have an area in Ohio like suburban philly, which is an area Obama will do quite well in.

He will do well here but well enough? Hillary is actually leading him thus far.