PA PrimD: Survey USA: Clinton far ahead of Obama

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Survey USA on 2008-03-10

Summary:

Clinton:	55%
Obama:	36%
Other:	6%
Undecided:	3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

North-West PA:

Clinton: 79%
Obama: 19%

South-West PA:

Clinton: 58%
Obama: 27%

West-Central PA:

Clinton: 76%
Obama: 17%

South-Central PA:

Clinton: 55%
Obama: 40%

North-East PA:

Clinton: 58%
Obama: 33%

South-East PA:

Clinton: 48%
Obama: 46%

[Tender Branson]

If you ask me: A lost cause.

[Tender Branson]

Could PA be any worse for Obama than OH? There is, of course, ample time for Obama to campaign and close the gap

Dave

Actually, yeah it could. PA is closed which will reduce crossovers by a significant amount simply because Obama now has two weeks to re-register independents and Republicans where they could simply request to change affiliation at the polling station. Pennsylvania also has a slightly smaller percentage of blacks and unlike in Ohio, Obama won't have the endorsement and machine of the mayors of the bigger cities (Rendell, Nutter, and Street are backing Hillary; Mallory and Jackson backed Obama).

All in all, it could get very ugly for Obama, like 15 point margin ugly.

I read a commentary by G. Terry Madonna of Franklin & Marshall College and it would seem that Obama must ramp up big margins in Philadelphia and its suburbs as well as doing well in what he calls the swing areas: the Lehigh Valley (Allentown) region and south-central PA (Lancaster, Dauphin, Cumberland and York) to stand even a hope of winning the primary

Obviously, white blue collar Democrats, and regions in which they are dominant, gravitate towards Clinton in a Democratic primary- but how does that bode well for Obama in a general, given that homogenously white areas are absent of the racial cleavages that could work against him?

Nevertheless, given that an ugly a win for Clinton could have wide reaching implications for Obama should he be the Democratic nominee, couldn't it still overstate her strength as a general election candidate in PA?

I know this is SUSA but the most recent Rasmussen general election poll; Feb 17, i.e. before Clinton's big OH and TX comeback) had:

Obama 49% / McCain 39%

McCain 44% / Clinton 42%

A new poll is to be released tomorrow and I'd be surprised if Clinton isn't up and Obama down against McCain

Clinton has certainly received a huge bounce in the PA Democratic primary, leading by 52 to 37 (March 6) but only by 46 to 42 (February 28)

Dave

I think both should be more or less tied or ahead of McCain tomorrow. Maybe Obama by 0-3%, Clinton by 3-8%.