PA PrimD: Survey USA: Clinton far ahead of Obama

[Smash255]

Could PA be any worse for Obama than OH? There is, of course, ample time for Obama to campaign and close the gap

Dave

Actually, yeah it could. PA is closed which will reduce crossovers by a significant amount simply because Obama now has two weeks to re-register independents and Republicans where they could simply request to change affiliation at the polling station. Pennsylvania also has a slightly smaller percentage of blacks and unlike in Ohio, Obama won't have the endorsement and machine of the mayors of the bigger cities (Rendell, Nutter, and Street are backing Hillary; Mallory and Jackson backed Obama).

All in all, it could get very ugly for Obama, like 15 point margin ugly.

I remember reading that large numbers of Republicans and Independents (upwards of 40,000) have recently switched to Democratic, likely to vote in the Dem Primary.  I would bet a high % of these would be in SEPA.  The black population is about 1% higher in Ohio than Pennsylvania, however PA does have a larger amount of middle to upper middle class whites than Ohio does.  They both have a large working class white population which Clinton obviously will do very well in PA as she did in Ohio, but you really don't have an area in Ohio like suburban philly, which is an area Obama will do quite well in.

[Smash255]

Could PA be any worse for Obama than OH? There is, of course, ample time for Obama to campaign and close the gap

Dave

Actually, yeah it could. PA is closed which will reduce crossovers by a significant amount simply because Obama now has two weeks to re-register independents and Republicans where they could simply request to change affiliation at the polling station. Pennsylvania also has a slightly smaller percentage of blacks and unlike in Ohio, Obama won't have the endorsement and machine of the mayors of the bigger cities (Rendell, Nutter, and Street are backing Hillary; Mallory and Jackson backed Obama).

All in all, it could get very ugly for Obama, like 15 point margin ugly.

I remember reading that large numbers of Republicans and Independents (upwards of 40,000) have recently switched to Democratic, likely to vote in the Dem Primary.  I would bet a high % of these would be in SEPA.  The black population is about 1% higher in Ohio than Pennsylvania, however PA does have a larger amount of middle to upper middle class whites than Ohio does.  They both have a large working class white population which Clinton obviously will do very well in PA as she did in Ohio, but you really don't have an area in Ohio like suburban philly, which is an area Obama will do quite well in.

That's interesting, can you find the link...I havent seen that on the local newspaper sites...but I'd be interested to read about it.

I don't think it's true. They have covered the fact that people will switch but I haven't seen the numbers yet. I think they'd wait until a few days before or after the deadline to switch (in about two weeks, I believe).

I remember reading it somewhere, I'm at work now so don't really have time to search for it, but will post a link tonight or tomorrow night when I have more time to look.

[Smash255]

Smash is wrong. There are plenty of bourgeois suburbs in Ohio, it's just that they aren't all (or rather; almost all) concentrated in just one metropolitan area.

I wasn't trying to suggest that it didn't exist in Ohio, but rather its larger in PA than Ohio.

[Smash255]

Could PA be any worse for Obama than OH? There is, of course, ample time for Obama to campaign and close the gap

Dave

Actually, yeah it could. PA is closed which will reduce crossovers by a significant amount simply because Obama now has two weeks to re-register independents and Republicans where they could simply request to change affiliation at the polling station. Pennsylvania also has a slightly smaller percentage of blacks and unlike in Ohio, Obama won't have the endorsement and machine of the mayors of the bigger cities (Rendell, Nutter, and Street are backing Hillary; Mallory and Jackson backed Obama).

All in all, it could get very ugly for Obama, like 15 point margin ugly.

I remember reading that large numbers of Republicans and Independents (upwards of 40,000) have recently switched to Democratic, likely to vote in the Dem Primary.  I would bet a high % of these would be in SEPA.  The black population is about 1% higher in Ohio than Pennsylvania, however PA does have a larger amount of middle to upper middle class whites than Ohio does.  They both have a large working class white population which Clinton obviously will do very well in PA as she did in Ohio, but you really don't have an area in Ohio like suburban philly, which is an area Obama will do quite well in.

That's interesting, can you find the link...I havent seen that on the local newspaper sites...but I'd be interested to read about it.

I don't think it's true. They have covered the fact that people will switch but I haven't seen the numbers yet. I think they'd wait until a few days before or after the deadline to switch (in about two weeks, I believe).

No hard data on how many people switched from Independent and Republican to Democratic, and all three saw gains since the fall, but the differences are quite stark.  Republicans have added 3,312 those enrolled in neither gained by approx 8,000 and democratic enrollment increased by 65,397.  The largest Democratic gains were in Montco, Delaware and Chester.

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http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g73v_gaMTeTWhOZQ8iJuo5NQTCzAD8VAR9IO0

[Smash255]

you really don't have an area in Ohio like suburban philly, which is an area Obama will do quite well in.

No? Northeast of Cleveland? Outside of Cincy? Columbus 'burbs? Certainly more prone to vote Republican in Ohio, but many of the Democratic votes that pushed Rendell, Sestak, Murphy, etc. into power were made by disaffected Republicans (Montco recorded 104,000 votes in the 2007 Primary - 39,000 Dems and 60,000 Republicans).

An off year election has a bit of a different dynamic.  Even with the GOP enrollment edge in suburban Philly (which continues to decrease) its still going to result in the white primary vote having a larger % of educated middle and upper middle class voters than in Ohio.  Thats not to state working class whites won't make up a large portion of the white vote in PA, they will just not to the extent they did in Ohio.  Obama has done well with white liberals (especially social liberals) you clearly have more of them in suburban Philly than you do in suburban Cleveland, Columbus & certainly suburban Cincy.

[Smash255]

its still going to result in the white primary vote having a larger % of educated middle and upper middle class voters than in Ohio.

Hmm... perhaps. But not by much, certainly not by as much as you seem to think.

I'm not trying to suggest Obama will win PA, I think Clinton will.  However, some of the talk has been she will win it by a larger portion than she did in Ohio, and I think that will be really hard for her to accomplish with the educated middle to upper middle class white vote being a little higher in PA.

[Smash255]

its still going to result in the white primary vote having a larger % of educated middle and upper middle class voters than in Ohio.

Hmm... perhaps. But not by much, certainly not by as much as you seem to think.

I'm not trying to suggest Obama will win PA, I think Clinton will.  However, some of the talk has been she will win it by a larger portion than she did in Ohio, and I think that will be really hard for her to accomplish with the educated middle to upper middle class white vote being a little higher in PA.

PA also has a lot more older voters - Strong for Hillary - and it's a closed primary. Was Ohio closed?

No, but a closed primary would also result in a higher % of African Americans than an open one would. 

[Smash255]

No, but a closed primary would also result in a higher % of African Americans than an open one would. 

But having an open primary doesn't reduce the number of black voters, and unless Clinton does better (in net) among the crossover voters, that would only be good for Obama.

I know it doesn't reduce the amount of black voters, but black voters would make a larger % of the overall vote in a closed primary than in a open one.  Thats not to say a closed primary doesn't benefit Clinton  it would. With the exception of Mississippi and a couple others the overall results in the open Primaries were more friendly to Obama than the Democrats in those states.   What Obama loses by not having the crossover voters while not fully made up for, is partially made up for by a higher % of black voters.

[Smash255]

An off year election has a bit of a different dynamic.

No shit. We're talking about a 61%-39% registration difference; ie, 21,000 Democrats and 0 Republicans would've had to have stayed home last April to even bring the numbers even. There wasn't any reason for more Republicans to turn out; neither party had contested Commissioner races, neither had any opposed row office races, and they obviously weren't pouring out in droves to vote on judges as only 71% and 61% of folks cast votes in the GOP primary for state judges. And you said it yourself, Montco is filled with professionals, higher income folks, 87% white, etc. There's no reason for the normal Democratic off year election downturn to occur here; both party's voters should be about equally as likely to vote.

Seems there's one conclusion to draw here Smash. Voters in Southeast PA are still registered majority Republican of those stating a party, and thus are ineligible to vote in this race on April 22.

Granted, but that advantage is diminishing. The areas of the state where the Democrats are making their greatest enrollment gains is in suburban Philly.  they will make up a higher % of the Democratic Primary vote than they have in the past.

[Smash255]

I'll add, in Ohio 31% of voters were Republicans or Independents. They were basically equal (49-49, 50-48 Obama). Clinton beat him 56-42 among Democrats. He lost white Democrats 70-27.

Let's review. Approximately 679,000 of 2,187,000 voters were not Democrats.

Article posted recently said 65,000 new Democrats registered while Republican numbers grew by 3,000 and Indies by 8,000. Now, total registration grew by 76,000. How many of those registrations are GOP/IND -> DEM and how many are new Democrats? Impossible to know, but that's another very important question.

And that's ignoring that 65,000 is less than a tenth of the total that voted in Ohio, and PA should have more total voters.

The newly registered Dem voters make up approx 2% of the current Democratic enrollment.  That is something which will obviously increase by the time the deadline rolls around.  Also its very likely that the newly registerered are probably more likely to turn out.  So your probably looking at the newly registered Dems making up 5-6% or so of the Democratic Primary vote.  The biggest increase in enrollment is coming from SEPA, and that is very likely to favor Obama, regardless what the split is between Republican and Indies switching parties and just new voters entirely

[Smash255]

For 2% of the electorate to make up 6% of voters turnout will need to drop to 33% of the electorate with every new voter voting.

Its probably going to be closer to 3-4% when its all set and done.  Turnout is going to obviously be really high across the board, but newly registered will likely see even higher turnout.

[Smash255]

Smash, your argument makes no sense. It's true that it would be worse for Obama if the closed primary made him lose black voters in addition to losing independents and Republicans but the fact that it isn't doesn't really constitute a good thing. It's not like the black percentage rising actually means any gains for him, since the percentage of white Democrats increase as well. If I have 40 voters and 20 of them are mine and you kill 10 of them it's true that the remaining 10 became 33% instead of 25% of the electorate but it doesn't really help the fact that I lost half my voters.

I wasn't suggesting it would help Obama.  I was saying one thing that tends to get overlooked is that  it would also result in a higher % of African Americans, which diminshes though doesn't completley negate the impact of not having the crossovers.