PA PrimD: Survey USA: Clinton far ahead of Obama

[Keystone Phil]

South-East PA:

Clinton: 48%
Obama: 46%

LOL!

Great results overall, of course.

[Keystone Phil]

Gotta love uni pollsters who act like they actually know something...

Who's that? G. Terry Madonna?

Dave

Haha...Madonna does know something! He is a political idol here. 

[Keystone Phil]

but you really don't have an area in Ohio like suburban philly, which is an area Obama will do quite well in.

He will do well here but well enough? Hillary is actually leading him thus far.

[Keystone Phil]

Could PA be any worse for Obama than OH? There is, of course, ample time for Obama to campaign and close the gap

Dave

Actually, yeah it could. PA is closed which will reduce crossovers by a significant amount simply because Obama now has two weeks to re-register independents and Republicans where they could simply request to change affiliation at the polling station. Pennsylvania also has a slightly smaller percentage of blacks and unlike in Ohio, Obama won't have the endorsement and machine of the mayors of the bigger cities (Rendell, Nutter, and Street are backing Hillary; Mallory and Jackson backed Obama).

All in all, it could get very ugly for Obama, like 15 point margin ugly.

I remember reading that large numbers of Republicans and Independents (upwards of 40,000) have recently switched to Democratic, likely to vote in the Dem Primary.  I would bet a high % of these would be in SEPA.  The black population is about 1% higher in Ohio than Pennsylvania, however PA does have a larger amount of middle to upper middle class whites than Ohio does.  They both have a large working class white population which Clinton obviously will do very well in PA as she did in Ohio, but you really don't have an area in Ohio like suburban philly, which is an area Obama will do quite well in.

That's interesting, can you find the link...I havent seen that on the local newspaper sites...but I'd be interested to read about it.

I don't think it's true. They have covered the fact that people will switch but I haven't seen the numbers yet. I think they'd wait until a few days before or after the deadline to switch (in about two weeks, I believe).

[Keystone Phil]

its still going to result in the white primary vote having a larger % of educated middle and upper middle class voters than in Ohio.

Hmm... perhaps. But not by much, certainly not by as much as you seem to think.

I'm not trying to suggest Obama will win PA, I think Clinton will.  However, some of the talk has been she will win it by a larger portion than she did in Ohio, and I think that will be really hard for her to accomplish with the educated middle to upper middle class white vote being a little higher in PA.

PA also has a lot more older voters - Strong for Hillary - and it's a closed primary. Was Ohio closed?

[Keystone Phil]

PA also has a lot more older voters - Strong for Hillary

60 and over by state, 2004 exit poll:

Ohio: 20%
Pennsylvania: 22%

A lot?

More olds died in Ohio since then. Next.

[Keystone Phil]

PA also has a lot more older voters - Strong for Hillary

60 and over by state, 2004 exit poll:

Ohio: 20%
Pennsylvania: 22%

A lot?

More olds died in Ohio since then. Next.

Change between 2000 and 2006 in population over the age of 65, U.S. Census:

Ohio: 13.3% to 13.3% (unch)
Pennsylvania: 15.6% to 15.1% (-3.2%)

Next.

LOL at the naive.

Who believes the U.S. government figures these days?

[Keystone Phil]

PA also has a lot more older voters - Strong for Hillary

60 and over by state, 2004 exit poll:

Ohio: 20%
Pennsylvania: 22%

A lot?

More olds died in Ohio since then. Next.

Change between 2000 and 2006 in population over the age of 65, U.S. Census:

Ohio: 13.3% to 13.3% (unch)
Pennsylvania: 15.6% to 15.1% (-3.2%)

Next.

LOL at the naive.

Who believes the U.S. government figures these days?

In that case, I refer you to:

State of Ohio.  "Single Year of Age by Sex Estimates for Ohio: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2006."

Pennsylvania State University.  "Population Demographics -- State of Pennsylvania."

Both of which agree with me: Ohio basically static, Pennsylvania a slight fall, definitely not more olds dying in Ohio.

I...have no idea why you are seriously responding to me.

Anyway, I was under the impression PA had far more old people but I guess that's not the case.

[Keystone Phil]

No, but a closed primary would also result in a higher % of African Americans than an open one would. 

But having an open primary doesn't reduce the number of black voters, and unless Clinton does better (in net) among the crossover voters, that would only be good for Obama.

I know it doesn't reduce the amount of black voters, but black voters would make a larger % of the overall vote in a closed primary than in a open one. 

Uh, ok, and the percentage of independents and Republicans who have favored Obama has gone down to 0.

[Keystone Phil]

No, but a closed primary would also result in a higher % of African Americans than an open one would. 

But having an open primary doesn't reduce the number of black voters, and unless Clinton does better (in net) among the crossover voters, that would only be good for Obama.

I know it doesn't reduce the amount of black voters, but black voters would make a larger % of the overall vote in a closed primary than in a open one. 

Uh, ok, and the percentage of independents and Republicans who have favored Obama has gone down to 0.

Not really. Many will switch registrations.

Not enough compared to those that have turned out in open primaries for the other side.

[Keystone Phil]

I love this state, because even in our utter stupidity we exhibit our greatness.