Mississippi results thread

[jesmo]

Results maps:

Nice.

Those counties in Northeastern Mississippi and a few in southern Mississippi look absolutely beautiful. About as beautiful as rural Tennessee, Missouri and all of Arkansas. The West Virginia Map will look beautiful also.

Are you a negro, James?

Uh, no, not really. 1/16th.

I am white, and proudly an Obama opponent. I was referring to how beautiful the red Democratic primary counties are. They are the enlightened counties.

Is your father or mother the octaroon?  Or do you know?

Father.

Now lets get back on topic.

My friend will have her detailed analysis of every primary thus far up later.

Ok, that's great.  Just so long as she's not an eco-terrorist, ok?

No she is no an eco-terrorist. She wouldn't harm a soul, and has never did anything to try to annoy or hurt anyone. She is just a strong environmentalist, but she is actually centre-left, not hard left on those issues.

Now be prepared to be amazed with her fantastic analysis that she will post later tonight, y'all will be amazed!

[Mr. Morden]

Here's my favorite stat from the exit polls.  If my algebra is correct:

14% of Clinton voters would be dissatisfied if Clinton wins the nomination.

2% of Obama voters would be dissatisfied if Obama wins the nomination.

A lot of this could be mischief making crossover GOP voters.  Alternatively, it could just be Democrats who wish they had other choices.  (The racist and sexist vote?)

I noticed that too It seems odd that such a substantial number of even strategic voters would say they are dissatisfied if their strategic vote won the nod...

And I doubt 14% of Clinton votes were strategic (that would be about half of the GOP + indy votes), so, well, hah.

Maybe those are people taking a very comprehensive view of the "Would you be satisfied...?" question.  Voters who are saying "Yes, I want Hillary Clinton to win the nomination.....but that alone wouldn't make me satisfied with life." 

[Alcon]

Here's my favorite stat from the exit polls.  If my algebra is correct:

14% of Clinton voters would be dissatisfied if Clinton wins the nomination.

2% of Obama voters would be dissatisfied if Obama wins the nomination.

A lot of this could be mischief making crossover GOP voters.  Alternatively, it could just be Democrats who wish they had other choices.  (The racist and sexist vote?)

I noticed that too It seems odd that such a substantial number of even strategic voters would say they are dissatisfied if their strategic vote won the nod...

And I doubt 14% of Clinton votes were strategic (that would be about half of the GOP + indy votes), so, well, hah.

Maybe those are people taking a very comprehensive view of the "Would you be satisfied...?" question.  Voters who are saying "Yes, I want Hillary Clinton to win the nomination.....but that alone wouldn't make me satisfied with life." 

Clinton supporters: If Hillary Clinton were to win the Democratic nomination, would you finally be at peace with death?

Yes - 68%
No - 30%
Under age 65 - 2%

[Sam Spade]

Because I like tables better...  Some comments are added at obvious places where the numbers need to be explained, if I can.

The next post will be adding the Republican primary voters into the mix...

Black Population 50%+
Jefferson: 86% black (88% Obama, 11% Clinton)
Claiborne: 85% black (80% Obama, 17% Clinton)
Holmes: 81% black (81% Obama, 17% Clinton)
Humphreys: 74% black (75% Obama, 22% Clinton)
Coahoma: 73% black (69% Obama, 28% Clinton) - in general, Clinton ran better among upper Miss. river blacks than lower Miss. river ones
Sunflower: 72% black (71% Obama, 27% Clinton)
Tunica: 72% black (67% Obama, 30% Clinton) - see Coahoma
Leflore: 71% black (79% Obama, 19% Clinton)
Noxubee: 70% black (80% Obama, 12% Clinton)
Quitman: 69% black (64% Obama, 31% Clinton) - see Coahoma
Wilkinson: 69% black (80% Obama, 17% Clinton)
Sharkey: 68% black (73% Obama, 25% Clinton)
Washington: 67% black (80% Obama, 20% Clinton)
Hinds: 66% black (81% Obama, 19% Clinton)
Bolivar: 65% black (77% Obama, 22% Clinton)
Issaquena: 60% black (66% Obama, 30% Clinton) - see Coahoma
Tallahatchie: 60% black (63% Obama, 33% Clinton) - see Coahoma
Kemper: 59% black (78% Obama, 20% Clinton) - no good explanation
Clay: 57% black (74% Obama, 24% Clinton)
Jefferson Davis: 57% black (73% Obama, 24% Clinton)
Adams: 56% black (74% Obama, 24% Clinton)
Yazoo: 55% black (70% Obama, 28% Clinton)
Jasper: 52% black (69% Obama, 29% Clinton)
Copiah: 51% black (69% Obama, 29% Clinton)
Pike: 50% black (69% Obama, 29% Clinton)

Black Population 33-50%
Marshall: 49% black (60% Obama, 38% Clinton)
Panola: 48% black (61% Obama, 36% Clinton)
Warren: 47% black (70% Obama, 29% Clinton)
Montgomery: 45% black (61% Obama, 36% Clinton)
Lowndes: 44% black (76% Obama, 23% Clinton) - no good explanation
Walthall: 44% black (62% Obama, 35% Clinton)
Winston: 44% black (65% Obama, 32% Clinton)
Amite: 43% black (62% Obama, 34% Clinton)
Chickasaw: 42% black (56% Obama, 41% Clinton)
Grenada: 41% black (62% Obama, 36% Clinton)
Lauderdale: 41% black (72% Obama, 27% Clinton) - GOP turnout about 85% of DEM
Attala: 40% black (58% Obama, 39% Clinton)
Leake: 39% black (62% Obama, 35% Clinton)
Scott: 39% black (62% Obama, 35% Clinton)
Yalobusha: 39% black (56% Obama, 42% Clinton)
Oktibbeha: 38% black (73% Obama, 26% Clinton) - Mississippi State University
Wayne: 38% black (51% Obama, 45% Clinton)
Madison: 37% black (77% Obama, 23% Clinton) - Jackson suburbs (somewhat), GOP turnout about 90% of DEM
Covington: 36% black (58% Obama, 40% Clinton)
Franklin: 36% black (58% Obama, 38% Clinton)
Forrest: 35% black (60% Obama, 39% Clinton)
Simpson: 35% black (62% Obama, 36% Clinton)
Benton: 34% black (42% Obama, 55% Clinton)
Carroll: 34% black (54% Obama, 44% Clinton)
Clarke: 34% black (66% Obama, 33% Clinton) - no good explanation
Marion: 33% black (54% Obama, Clinton 43%)

Black Population >33%
Lawrence: 32% black (55% Obama, 42% Clinton)
Choctaw: 31% black (52% Obama, 44% Clinton)
Monroe: 31% black (50% Obama, 47% Clinton)
Tate: 31% black (51% Obama, 47% Clinton)
Lincoln: 30% black (59% Obama, 39% Clinton) - no good explanation
Newton: 30% black (62% Obama, 36% Clinton) - GOP turnout about 80% of DEM
Calhoun: 29% black (43% Obama, 53% Clinton)
Greene: 27% black (37% Obama, 59% Clinton)
Jones: 27% black (45% Obama, 54% Clinton)
Lee: 26% black (44% Obama, 54% Clinton)
Lafayette: 25% black (56% Obama, 42% Clinton) - Ole Miss University
Smith: 24% black (43% Obama, 54% Clinton)
Harrison: 23% black (54% Obama, 45% Clinton) - no good explanation here or in Jackson (GOP didn't show up?)
Perry: 23% black (40% Obama, 57% Clinton)
Jackson: 22% black (55% Obama, 43% Clinton) - see Harrison
Neshoba: 21% black (51% Obama, 45% Clinton) - as many votes in GOP primary as DEM, Indian reservation (14%)
Webster: 21% black (37% Obama, 60% Clinton)
DeSoto: 19% black (45% Obama, 54% Clinton) - Memphis exurbs, 4,000 more voted in the GOP primary.
Rankin: 19% black (61% Obama, 38% Clinton) - Jackson suburbs, voted 2-1 in the GOP primary
Stone: 19% black (40% Obama, 58% Clinton)
Tippah: 17% black (26% Obama, 70% Clinton)
Lamar: 15% black (37% Obama, 61% Clinton)
Pontotoc: 15% black (33% Obama, 64% Clinton)
Union: 15% black (27% Obama, 70% Clinton)
Prentiss: 14% black (19% Obama, 74% Clinton)
Pearl River: 12% black (35% Obama, 63% Clinton)
Alcorn: 11% black (22% Obama, 76% Clinton)
George: 9% black (22% Obama, 73% Clinton)
Hancock: 7% black (30% Obama, 68% Clinton)
Itawamba: 7% black (15% Obama, 80% Clinton)
Tishomingo: 4% black (13% Obama, 82% Clinton)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Isn't Oktibbeha the one with the university?

[Sam Spade]

Isn't Oktibbeha the one with the university?

Yes, yes.  How could I forget...

[Alcon]

Kemper -
Lowndes - Mississippi University for Women, but otherwise no idea
Oktibbeha - Mississippi State
Clarke - I remember something odd about Quitman, but I forget what
Lincoln -
Lafayette - University of Mississippi
Harrison/Jackson - I don't know.  Katrina shenanigans?  Coastal service industry workers?  (BS answer)

Yeah, I know nothing about Mississippi and it shows.

[© tweed]

Edwards pulled less than 1%.  I suppose that is a good thing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

jesmo = jamespol. I want to kick myself for not catching that earlier. Well he's been on ignore for awhile anyway. So has texasindy's new incarnation.

[7,052,770]

In addition to Obama doing far better than black% in Oktibbeha (Mississippi State), he also did in Lafayette (Ole Miss) and Forrest (Southern Miss).

Kemper County is where Meridian is.  Other than Meridian Community College, there's no huge student population, but it is a major city as far as Mississippi cities go, probably with a lot of white Obama voters.

Madison County (my county) has a lot of non-native Mississippians.  Much moreso %wise than any other county surely, other than possibly DeSoto.  So there's your explanation.

[Mr. Morden]

Back to the issue of the crossover Republicans who voted for Clinton.  Natioinal Journal has crosstabs on those people, acquired from CBS.  This is only based on 147, so the uncertainty is enormous, but some of these numbers are lopsided enough that they might be able to tell us something:

http://news.nationaljournal.com/articles/mysterypollster/2008/031208.htm

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So, if we accept any of this on face value given the small sample size, many of these Republicans who voted for Clinton seem to like McCain better than either Clinton or Obama, but they *really* don't like Obama.  (It's not just that they think Clinton would be easier to beat.....they really don't think she's as bad as Obama.)  So you can read their vote as a "stop Obama" effort.

The bizarre part is "41 percent said they would be dissatisfied if Clinton were the Democratic nominee".  They'd be dissatisfied with the person they're voting for winning the nomination?  But I guess that group is probably just trying to say that they really don't like either of the Democrats, and they're really not happy about either Clinton or Obama winning the nom., but Clinton winning is the lesser of the two remaining bad options.

[Sam Spade]

Back to the issue of the crossover Republicans who voted for Clinton.  Natioinal Journal has crosstabs on those people, acquired from CBS.  This is only based on 147, so the uncertainty is enormous, but some of these numbers are lopsided enough that they might be able to tell us something:

http://news.nationaljournal.com/articles/mysterypollster/2008/031208.htm

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So, if we accept any of this on face value given the small sample size, many of these Republicans who voted for Clinton seem to like McCain better than either Clinton or Obama, but they *really* don't like Obama.  (It's not just that they think Clinton would be easier to beat.....they really don't think she's as bad as Obama.)  So you can read their vote as a "stop Obama" effort.

The bizarre part is "41 percent said they would be dissatisfied if Clinton were the Democratic nominee".  They'd be dissatisfied with the person they're voting for winning the nomination?  But I guess that group is probably just trying to say that they really don't like either of the Democrats, and they're really not happy about either Clinton or Obama winning the nom., but Clinton winning is the lesser of the two remaining bad options.

The interesting question is how many white Democratic supporters of Hillary feel this way (yes there are some white Dems in MS who are not Harry (not many).

[HardRCafé]

He broke up with his boyfriend in August, by the way. Also keep in mind, he is gay, so be easy on him. He is very sensitive.

Why are we stuck on this **** again?

[Eraserhead]

Those counties in Northeastern Mississippi and a few in southern Mississippi look absolutely beautiful. About as beautiful as rural Tennessee, Missouri and all of Arkansas. The West Virginia Map will look beautiful also.

Are you a negro, James?

I think his boyfriend is, IIRC.

He broke up with his boyfriend in August, by the way. Also keep in mind, he is gay, so be easy on him. He is very sensitive.

Alright, what's the gag?

[Sam Spade]

Some unofficial reports have come in (nothing from the relevant CD-03 counties). 

But in Prentiss County, for example, (14% black, 19% Obama), we can now look at precincts.  Where do you think the blacks live here?

http://www.sos.state.ms.us/elections/2008/Primary/Democratic/Prentiss.pdf

Baldwyn - Clinton 266, Obama 244, White men 19
Blackland (wrong name) - Clinton 152, Obama 22, White men 15
Booneville - Clinton 398, Obama 41, White men 49
Cross Roads - Clinton 302, Obama 22, White men 24
East Booneville - Clinton 318, Obama 60, White men 39
Ingram - Clinton 77, Obama 12, White men 4
Marietta - Clinton 256, Obama 24, White men 26
North Booneville - Clinton 121, Obama 207, White men 18
New Site - Clinton 171, Obama 17, White men 22
Odom Hill - Clinton 101, Obama 14, White men 14
Thrasher - Clinton 162, Obama 89, White men 23
Tuscambia-New Candler - Clinton 247, Obama 15, White men 19
West Booneville - Clinton 561, Obama 122, White men 65
Wheeler - Clinton 240, Obama 32, White men 20
Hills Chapel-New Hope - Clinton 337, Obama 22, White men 20

[Filuwaúrdjan]

East Booneville?

[RBH]

can't wait to see the precinct returns out of Noxubee so we can figure out what the hell went on there.

Also, Fleming won 2 to 1 in Prentiss.

[Sam Spade]

can't wait to see the precinct returns out of Noxubee so we can figure out what the hell went on there.

Also, Fleming won 2 to 1 in Prentiss.

How many people in Prentiss County do you think know who Erik Fleming is, and that he's black? 

[RBH]

can't wait to see the precinct returns out of Noxubee so we can figure out what the hell went on there.

Also, Fleming won 2 to 1 in Prentiss.

How many people in Prentiss County do you think know who Erik Fleming is, and that he's black? 

Apparently not many. Fleming must sound more white than O'Hara.

Do you know where these full results for the counties are coming from? Dave has them up on the site.

[Sam Spade]

can't wait to see the precinct returns out of Noxubee so we can figure out what the hell went on there.

Also, Fleming won 2 to 1 in Prentiss.

How many people in Prentiss County do you think know who Erik Fleming is, and that he's black? 

Apparently not many. Fleming must sound more white than O'Hara.

You know, since that area is heavy with the Scots-Irish (primarily Ulster Scots, I suspect), maybe an Irish name is an overall negative.    I do know that whenever I mention that I'm a good bit Scots-Irish to some Irish ancestry people up here (the old ones), they grimace.

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No, I don't.

[RBH]

I found the county results for the Presidential race, and they had county results for the senate and house races too (it's an AP thing).

Overall, Fleming won 79 of 82 counties over O'Hara. O'Hara only carried Perry, Stone, and Wayne counties. All of those counties are close to O'Hara's hometown of Hattiesburg (in Forrest County).

[Alcon]

After putting me on hold with what I swear was the theme to The Godfather, Noxubee County verified that the totals are correct.  And the person who answered the phone had no idea what happened either.

[Erc]

The MS SoS website now has a verified breakdown for Madison County (split between CDs 2 & 3)

CD 2: 6212 - 1144 Obama
CD 3: 4049 - 1860 Obama

Unsurprisingly, the CD 2 section is much more strongly in favor of Obama.

[Erc]

A full breakdown for Jasper Co. is now available:

In CD 3:
1026 - 411 Obama

In CD 4:
1833 - 791 Obama

This means, in CD 4, Obama is now up 36,895 to 35,573 (margin of 1322) excluding Jones & Marion counties.

Jones County is mostly in CD 4, and Clinton has a margin of 914 votes there.
Marion County is split rather evenly with CD 3, and Obama has a margin of 446 votes there.

So that margin of 1322 votes is going to get narrower, but it looks as if (unless there's some really lucky gerrymandering) Obama is still going to squeak this one out.

[Erc]

Enough Winston county precinct results have come in to guarantee that it is now a mathematical impossibility for Obama to win CD 1.