Strategic Vision: Clinton +20 in PA

[Keystone Phil]

Get to 60%, Hillary!

[Keystone Phil]

Is Pennsylvania a closed primary? It better be...

Yep

[Keystone Phil]

Obama can't win Pennsylvania. It's just one of the states that Clinton is favored in. He should downplay it and focus chiefly on winning Indiana and North Carolina two weeks later.

You can't downplay a big state which will be the focus of the country for six weeks.

[Keystone Phil]

If Clinton can do it for 11 states in a row offering many more delegates than Pennsylvania, I'm sure Obama can.

Again, this is six weeks of focusing on just one state and a big state, at that. It's hard to ignore.

[Keystone Phil]

A city where every major public official is supporting Hillary and a city where they very much practice "machine" politics. What's black turnout going to be like?

With the exception of Chaka Fattah (who has proven himself to be a joke in citywide politics at least) and black ward leaders. But it is worth noting that Hillary has many black leaders on her side as well as some black ward leaders.

[Keystone Phil]

With the exception of Chaka Fattah (who has proven himself to be a joke in citywide politics at least) and black ward leaders. But it is worth noting that Hillary has many black leaders on her side as well as some black ward leaders.

lol. Fattah finished 4th in a Democratic Mayoral Primary, as a sitting congressman, losing by 21 points to another black candidate? That primary is still hilarious a year later.

The worst part was how Fattah was crowned Mayor months before the primary. He was supposed to be the lone top tier candidate with Nutter, Evans and Knox fighting for the scraps. I always supported Nutter but I didn't really think he had a chance until we got much closer to the primary. I expected Nutter to come in maybe second to last. Then Brady stepped in and we crowned him Mayor. Then he fell flat on his face. Fattah and Brady proved themselves to be the two biggest jokes in that race. It is still hilarious a year later. The two heavyweights battling for third place. Brady eventually got it...by less than a hundred votes.

And all of this is funny because they lost to Michael Nutter, the reformer, in a city still run by the machine. Amazing. That's the first (and so far only) election result I really was thrilled with.

[Keystone Phil]

Obama can't win Pennsylvania. It's just one of the states that Clinton is favored in. He should downplay it and focus chiefly on winning Indiana and North Carolina two weeks later.

Solid strategy, downplaying the state that is actually going to matter in the general, in favor of those that aren't.

I've never understood this argument.  We have two options to use as a guideline for General performance:

1. A closed Democratic primary, where Clinton leads
2. Polls specific to the General Election, where Obama performs modestly better.

Why so readily #1 over #2?

If you don't challenge in a state at all, people will feel "written off" which doesn't kill you right away, but it can have an effect on enthusiasm, especially when it comes to people who actually perform the ground level functions, such as volunteers and fundraisers.

I doubt Obama is hurting much for organizational structure in Pennsylvania.  Is he?

I haven't seen it...yet. I doubt they'll make much of an effort in my immediate area anyway. Either way, it will be nothing compared to Hillary's organization in the city.