New Survey USA presidential polls

[The Vorlon]

Party ID in CA poll was:

GOP = 40%
Dem = 37%
Ind = 22%

2000 Exit polls in Ca:


Dem = 43%
GOP = 35%
Ind = 22%

SUSA correctly and honestly flagged this. (Note to LA Times, this is how intellectually honest polling organization behave)

This is the 1 in 20 polls that blows up

[The Vorlon]

Party ID in CA poll was:

GOP = 40%
Dem = 37%
Ind = 22%

2000 Exit polls in Ca:


Dem = 43%
GOP = 35%
Ind = 22%

SUSA correctly and honestly flagged this. (Note to LA Times, this is how intellectually honest polling organization behave)

This is the 1 in 20 polls that blows up

Is SUSA a decent "Vorlorn Approved" firm, in general???

I have them as a "second tier" firm.

They are honest, not biased, and doing the best they can in a good faith way.  I cut these guys some slack. When something "blows up" (ie this CA poll) they put a big note in the .pdf and say... "Hey.. this sample blew up"

(Note to LA times.....)

B to B+ overall.

Not a Mason-Dixon or a POS, but a clear step above say an ARG. Roughly on par with say Research 2000.

They crank out a few more "blips" but only because they just do so damn many polls..

What I like about them is the publish ALL the data so you can go in and see how a sample looks like and what went wrong if it blew up.

Even in a "bad" sample (like this CA poll) you can still extract useful information.

This is a pretty good firm overall.

[The Vorlon]

Frequently they're under contract to a media outlet which won't give them the time (or allow them to) clean up the survey (weight, resurvey, etc.).

Most of the public is unaware of the tension between getting it now/on budget versus getting it right but a little bit latter and perhaps with a little more expense.

Public Opinion Strategies just did the battleground states (Aug 16-18) and their Iowa sample "blew up".

They didn't include the results in the presentation and said.. "hey we're doing it again... we will get Iowa to you next week..."

The media, on the other hand wants the poll NOW.

Dare I be cynical, but they LIKE a bad poll.  "California a Battleground State !!?!!" is a better headline than "Huge Kerry lead, race is effectively over"