Wisconsin Primary (Event)

[Ben.]

After his endorsement by the biggest paper in the state, the Milwaukee Journal, and his good performance in the debate last night I would say that Edwards will go up…the probable reason that Dean is ahead is that he’s bombarded the state with adds and poured all his resources into (his supporters are still giving him plenty of money remember)… I think that when the next polls come out it should show Edwards up into second place and that would be sufficient for the press to start talking of a two man race…I mean that’s what they would like to be able to do from what I can tell… don’t blame me I voted for Edwards on Feb 3rd … but a real horse race at this stage is unlikely however where Edwards to make the race in WI closer he could then stay in till supper Tuesday and that would keep it a race…however if Kerry wins by the massive margin that the polls are suggesting then the primaries will be essentially over…            

[Ben.]

Here’s my stab at the WI results with the Zogby numbers in brackets…

Kerry: 46 (47)

Edwards: 28 (20)

Dean: 23 (23)

Kucinich: 2 (2)

Sharpton: 1 (1)

I’m still hoping for a better second for Edwards and with the newspaper endorsement and the good performance last night perhaps we will be surprised… this contest needs to go on until “Super Tuesday”… I think Dean’s going to be either dropping out or “suspending” his campaign after WI… this should help Edwards…but Edwards can only continue if he fishes at least as an undisputed second… with Dean out and a relatively good performance Edwards should receive media coverage as the “anti Kerry” candidate and this could help him on Supper Tuesday…it’s a long shot… but a shot none the less…      

[Ben.]

Your right Gustaf... but hell! I need something to hold onto for the time being... see in my little universe the nomination isn’t settled yet and Edwards is still a real player for the nomination…

Sorry snapping back into reality now… ultimately Edwards should have beaten Clark in Oklahoma… had he done that Clark would have been out and I would say that Edwards would have come a good second in Michigan and done better in Maine and then probably won Tennessee and come a close second in Virginia then he could have strongly contested in Nevada and DC and by now we would have a tough race in Wisconsin with Kerry being forced to fend off a real Edwards challenge…rather than the rather desperate effort Edwards is being forced to launch at this stage…shame really but there you go…        

[Ben.]

Glad to see a fellow Edwards supporter…just a pity you can’t vote over here…forgot about NH had some of the polls been right and had Edwards got the 15% or so that some where predicting and Clark had been some where marginally ahead of Lieberman well things would have been different… in the end its sad to say it but Clark and Edwards cancelled each other out…

Would have been interesting to see if Edwards would still have been able to make a race of it with Kerry had Clark won OK but still dropped out…still it’ll all be over one way or another pretty soon…