your politics aside...answer honestly, will obama's campaign survive..

[J. J.]

So, it really depends on whether he can re-gain momentum or whether he will quit by mid-may.

I doubt that he will leave by mid-May.  It really depends on May 6 and how big his loss  is in PA.

By May 15, Hillary's net gain could be 50-60 elected delegates if Obama is really damaged.  Also, any movement at that time might start influencing the Super Delegates.

I've said that Obama has had three chances to end this, NH, Super Duper Monster Tuesday, and March 4.  All three times he's failed.  May 6-15 might be Hillary's chance to end it.

[J. J.]

Very damaging, but survivable.

Depends on what you mean by "damaging" and "survivable".

"Damaging," see my previous post, and include takes a hit in his poll numbers, which is more than a 3-4 day thing; it might also include a permanent reduction.  Survivable means he can recover by mid to late May.

can he survive the generals?

It doesn't make any difference if he's not the nominee.  I think the Wright Affair would be slightly damaging in the general. however, but far from fatal.

[elcorazon]

the wright affair?

i say no.  if it doesnt do him in in the primary...the issue will dog at him all through the general campaign.

agreed.

I just think there are a ton of moderates who have been "inspired" by Obama but who will now feel he hasn't been vetted, and they will fear the unknown with him.  I expect whites to flock to Hillary.  And if Obama can hold on to his supers and enough whites to withstand hillary's gains, we could be looking at a mammoth mccain victory - winning all the swings including states like Michigan, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and the like.

this is really bad.

[J. J.]

the wright affair?

i say no.  if it doesnt do him in in the primary...the issue will dog at him all through the general campaign.

agreed.

I don't think it's fatal, by a long shot.  Damaging however, and may cost him the nomination.

[Person Man]

the wright affair?

i say no.  if it doesnt do him in in the primary...the issue will dog at him all through the general campaign.

agreed.

I don't think it's fatal, by a long shot.  Damaging however, and may cost him the nomination.

....and because Obama will never be caught by any other metric, if HillDawg wins by the supers, we are looking at a 35 or 45 state win by Micky C and this will guarantee that the democratic party will disband by 2016, if not the very next election. At least, there will be a sizeable center-left party that will split  the vote with the dems, giving McCain another major victory.

[J. J.]

the wright affair?

i say no.  if it doesnt do him in in the primary...the issue will dog at him all through the general campaign.

agreed.

I don't think it's fatal, by a long shot.  Damaging however, and may cost him the nomination.

....and because Obama will never be caught by any other metric, if HillDawg wins by the supers, we are looking at a 35 or 45 state win by Micky C and this will guarantee that the democratic party will disband by 2016, if not the very next election. At least, there will be a sizeable center-left party that will split  the vote with the dems, giving McCain another major victory.

I think that this is possibly the worst post I've read.  This infighting is no worse than the D's in 1968 and 1972 and the R's in 1976. 

[Democratic Hawk]

This, of course, is Obama's first real test. It could be either the making or breaking of him.
It's too early to make any conclusion but Rasmussen's tracking poll suggests he has taken a hit on Wright

Still, I'm reassured that Wright's politics aren't those of Obama's. That's all that matters

The politics of hope, inspiration and inclusiveness aren't toast yet. There remains reasons to be optimistic that the politics of fear, desparation and divisiveness won't a) triumph in the Democratic primary and b) the general yet

Dave

[Person Man]

I know that....but the country is in really bad shape under the incumbent and the democratic party is at its weakest.

This isn't 1968- The incumbent strong party fell apart and the opposition won

This isn't 1972- We had a popular incumbent president to face

This COULD be 1976- but the dems have to win it and the Rs were the incumbent

After the last 7-10 years have happened, I am not expecting everything to go back to the way they were. It just isn't going to happen.

[J. J.]

I know that....but the country is in really bad shape under the incumbent and the democratic party is at its weakest.

Those two statements are virtually contradictory.    If the county is in "really bad shape." the opposition should have a very easy time. 

Still, my "pigeon entrails" prediction was for a Republican victory in 2008.  "After us, the deluge."

[Person Man]

I know that....but the country is in really bad shape under the incumbent and the democratic party is at its weakest.

Those two statements are virtually contradictory.    If the county is in "really bad shape." the opposition should have a very easy time. 

Still, my "pigeon entrails" prediction was for a Republican victory in 2008.  "After us, the deluge."

They are....that's why I expect something very profound and unprecedented to happen. So, the goat you sacrificed could...COULD....mean that McCain will simply be the last straw for the country that gave him the benefit of the doubt...or it could easily mean that his succesor will finish what Nixon-Reagan began. by 2015, Republican registration will be 5% more than the Dems for the first time in 100 years, the court will have overturned Roe and brought back Lochner, the GOP will have 250 congressmen and 58 senators and we will be in Iran and Syria. 

[J. J.]

I know that....but the country is in really bad shape under the incumbent and the democratic party is at its weakest.

Those two statements are virtually contradictory.    If the county is in "really bad shape." the opposition should have a very easy time. 

Still, my "pigeon entrails" prediction was for a Republican victory in 2008.  "After us, the deluge."

They are....that's why I expect something very profound and unprecedented to happen. So, the goat you sacrificed could...COULD....mean that McCain will simply be the last straw for the country that gave him the benefit of the doubt...or it could easily mean that his succesor will finish what Nixon-Reagan began. by 2015, Republican registration will be 5% more than the Dems for the first time in 100 years, the court will have overturned Roe and brought back Lochner, the GOP will have 250 congressmen and 58 senators and we will be in Iran and Syria. 

I actually think the Democrats, with Clinton or Obama as the nominee, is stronger than you depict and the country is in better shape than you depict, though both could improve.

[Iosif is a COTHO]

When even Drudge's main headline on the saga is 'Obama decries racial rhetoric', I think you know this is being over played on this forum.

[J. J.]

When even Drudge's main headline on the saga is 'Obama decries racial rhetoric', I think you know this is being over played on this forum.

The only good news is that this get into SNL yet.  I'm waiting for "Weekend Update."

[ottermax]

ugh... I'm so tired of this election. It's amazing how crazy people get over a small thing. Obama can't control what his pastor says, I can't control what my rabbi says. My rabbi once said (to an audience of liberal liberal jews) to respect Bush because he is president. Nobody booed the rabbi, but I think a lot of people disagreed. If my rabbi says something, you can't blame me. The other choice is to change churches or religions, but you don't just pick and choose a religion because of one thing a pastor says.

Truthfully I think people are beginning to get fatigued by this election. People are going to stop paying attention as their shows come back from the grave caused by the writer's strike. It's getting old real fast; people don't even care about the debates anymore.

[Democratic Hawk]

The mind boggles as to how America could vote for another Republican president after His Ineptness

It's more testament to McCain's personal strength that Republicans are, seriously, in contention; while the Democrats aren't exactly making it difficult for him and easy for themselves either

Dave

[Flying Dog]

If this is all that comes out them nobody will be talking about it in 1-2 weeks.

[bullmoose88]

The mind boggles as to how America could vote for another Republican president after His Ineptness

It's more testament to McCain's personal strength that Republicans are, seriously, in contention; while the Democrats aren't exactly making it difficult for him and easy for themselves either

Dave

A testament to McCain's wise decision to stay as far away from the intellectually bankrupt Bush administration for as long as possible before having to come back and schlep some of the talking points necessary to win the Republican Nomination.

As for Obama...I think he'll be just fine.  I like the man.  I hope its Obama v. McCain, two honorable men (despite what certain detractors on these boards will say about them), perhaps we'll for once get an honest discussion of the issues.  Barring some hanky panky/cheap crap by either of them, I won't mind who wins.

But I'm probably too optimistic here.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Of course. Is this even having a significant effect on the polls. So far there's no sign of that.

[J. J.]

As for Obama...I think he'll be just fine.  I like the man.  I hope its Obama v. McCain, two honorable men (despite what certain detractors on these boards will say about them), perhaps we'll for once get an honest discussion of the issues.  Barring some hanky panky/cheap crap by either of them, I won't mind who wins.

I think his I didn't realize he said these things comment does strike at his sincerity.  Obama was a member of this church for 20 years.  Maybe he wasn't paying attention, but that doesn't seem too likely.

[Flying Dog]

Is there any evidence that Wright was making these comments in his sermons from 1991-2000?
I've yet to see any.

[J. J.]

Is there any evidence that Wright was making these comments in his sermons from 1991-2000?
I've yet to see any.

The last one was December 2007.  2001 to 2007, don't you think that is long enough?

Apparently, he did have a rather long standing association with Farrakhan, dating back to trip to Libya in 1984 and making favorable comments about him in a magazine article  in 2007 (Wright's daughter was the editor).

[Flying Dog]

There were videos from 01' and 03' mostly. There was one from 07'. Were are the one's from 04,05 and 06.

[J. J.]

There were videos from 01' and 03' mostly. There was one from 07'. Were are the one's from 04,05 and 06.

Write the church and get them.

I think the situation here is not that this was not an offhand comment made once 20 years ago.

[Flying Dog]

There were videos from 01' and 03' mostly. There was one from 07'. Were are the one's from 04,05 and 06.

Write the church and get them.

I think the situation here is not that this was not an offhand comment made once 20 years ago.

Oh I'm sure people have already poured over these videos. I wonder how many are out there. If they reviewed hundreds and only 5 had offensive comments then it would be a case of "flying off the handle". Just speculation.

[J. J.]

There were videos from 01' and 03' mostly. There was one from 07'. Were are the one's from 04,05 and 06.

Write the church and get them.

I think the situation here is not that this was not an offhand comment made once 20 years ago.

Oh I'm sure people have already poured over these videos. I wonder how many are out there. If they reviewed hundreds and only 5 had offensive comments then it would be a case of "flying off the handle". Just speculation.

Would you prefer 20 years of comments and some photos of Wright and Farrakhan?    I'm sure someone could arrange it (and probably is).