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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  Gender gap
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Author Topic: Gender gap  (Read 12433 times)
Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
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« Reply #25 on: January 06, 2004, 05:20:35 am »

Those tories are youngsters, the average age of a Democrat is about 940 years old Smiley

The age gap in America is rather even at this point and if the trends continue, Republicans will gain the lead among younger voters and Democrats among older voters.  In the 2000 election, it was virtually a tie between Bush and Gore for people under 45, middle aged people went for Bush by a point, and people over 60 went for Gore by a 4 point margin. (according to the CNN exit poll)
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English
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« Reply #26 on: January 06, 2004, 06:07:09 am »

Very strange. In 2001 UK election, the over 65's voted for the Tories by a small margin. Labour's biggest voting bloc was the 18-25's if I remember correctly.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #27 on: January 08, 2004, 11:38:53 am »



Agreed.

Think USC is the best team by far.

and loved how the BCS failed!!! this year.  Always get some rep to come out and say see it worked, well they couldn't save face this year.

ok back to reality...

that may happen in this lifetime, LSU and OKL both looked terrible last night BTW.

I hate NASCAR.  And it isn't growing, it stopped growing when Earnhardt died.  You know what's growing?  College Football.  When we institute a lucrative playoff system, watch the people and the $$$ flow in.
But USC looked damn good against Michigan.  I like the old bowl system better, with the traditional conference matchups.  The BCS is BS.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #28 on: January 08, 2004, 11:39:48 am »

probably if you scroll up, you'll see you asked, what are you trying to tell me.

That if you 'work for a living', (a term I get from my dad, a huge nascar fan) the Democrat party is no longer for you.  You might not fit the snobbish view of America from million dollar manhattan apartments or the bastions of liberal/socialist thought and thus would be an embarrassment.

OK, I got that, I was just wondering why you were directing at me in a so specific way, like I needed to know this more than any other person on the board. But I find it easy to believe you, most communists have always been upper class. My dad comes from a working class family and he has always held open contempt for "spoiled upper-class kids" who were communists in 1968 movement (or later for that matter).
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Gustaf
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« Reply #29 on: January 08, 2004, 01:57:53 pm »

Yes, but it seemed like he was trying to tell it ot me specifically, like I needed it more than someone else, so that's what I was wondering. I thought it was encompassed in my question, but it might have been badly phrased.

probably if you scroll up, you'll see you asked, what are you trying to tell me.

That if you 'work for a living', (a term I get from my dad, a huge nascar fan) the Democrat party is no longer for you.  You might not fit the snobbish view of America from million dollar manhattan apartments or the bastions of liberal/socialist thought and thus would be an embarrassment.

OK, I got that, I was just wondering why you were directing at me in a so specific way, like I needed to know this more than any other person on the board. But I find it easy to believe you, most communists have always been upper class. My dad comes from a working class family and he has always held open contempt for "spoiled upper-class kids" who were communists in 1968 movement (or later for that matter).
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Beet
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« Reply #30 on: February 15, 2004, 06:43:47 pm »

There's a good article on ABC News today about the myth of the NASCAR dad (and soccer mom for that matter).

Feb. 15 The president's visit to Daytona this weekend raises inevitable discussions of the latest alleged swing voters, "NASCAR dads." We say: Throttle back.
...
Now it's NASCAR dads. Who are they? Depends whom you ask. According to ABCNEWS' Political Unit, they're "auto racing fan Democrats, usually anti-gun control, and tend to live in more rural areas of the country."

Professorial pundit Larry Sabato calls them "middle- to lower middle-class males who are family men, live in rural areas, used to vote heavily Democratic but now usually vote Republican."

To the NRA's Wayne LaPierre, they're "hard-working, average tax-paying Americans that are raising their families and putting their kids through school. They are patriotic. They own guns. They hunt, and they go shooting and they love the Second Amendment."

A CBS analysis specifies Southern and Midwestern suburban and rural white men. (Amusingly, only 41 percent of the CBS NASCAR dads said they were fans of NASCAR.)

And the Wall Street Journal, citing the conjurer of this group, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, says they're "blue-collar fathers between 35 and 55 culturally conservative but very populist."

Swing Voters?

When we run data from our recent polls we find that married, middle- and lower-income white men account for a single-digit share of the national population, and support President Bush in precisely the same proportion as all white men. (Make it rural white men, and it goes down to low single digits.) And white men, particularly Southern white men, are a solidly Republican group, highly unlikely to swing anywhere, anyhow.

For good measure, we checked rural, suburban or small city married white men with children and incomes under $50,000 in the 2000 exit poll. They accounted for 2 percent of all voters, and supported Bush over Gore by 70 percent to 27 percent. You really want to call this a swing voter group?

Give us a definition, we'll run the data. But we've seen it before: Take soccer moms, the group du jour in 1996. We found, when we analyzed the exit poll, that they made up a fragment of voters 6 percent and voted like all other moms essentially like all other women.

In spring 2000 there was a new crop; the group du jour in one Washington Post article was "Midwestern non-union non-college-educated middle- and lower-income women." That one didn't catch on, probably because the name alone takes half a 30-second spot.

Classic Swing Voters

In our view, a swing voter group ought to fit two basic criteria its majority vote ought to swing between between Democratic and Republican candidates from election to election; and it ought to be big enough to make a difference in the outcome.

In a close election like 2000, admittedly, any group could have made the difference. (And not just in Florida. Three thousand, six hundred and six votes in New Hampshire would have made the difference.)

But there are two classic swing voter groups in American politics independents, and white Catholics. Win them, you're pretty sure to win the election: Ronald Reagan won independents and white Catholics in both his races. So did George H.W. Bush in 1988. Both groups swung to Bill Clinton in 1992, and he repeated with them in '96.
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