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  Obama's Long Ride Down - The Numbers
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Author Topic: Obama's Long Ride Down - The Numbers  (Read 19524 times)
motomonkey
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« on: March 19, 2008, 08:20:21 am »
« edited: March 19, 2008, 08:31:24 am by motomonkey »

Look at Reuter's latest poll numbers showing Clinton pulling even with Obama nationally. http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1824791220080319?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=10112


And more, http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q=node/10525

One week ago:  Obama 50% - Clinton 44%  (Gallup)
Today:  Obama 45% - Clinton 47%

And Rev. Wright is viewed as racially devisive and hurting the Obama Campaign http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/people2/just_8_have_favorable_opinion_of_pastor_jeremiah_wright


Obama's numbers will continue to erode.  Clinton will chase and catch him like a hunter chasing a fatally wounded deer. 

Obama is running on a platform of "Change."  How are we supposed to believe he can "change" America and the way Washington works when he can't even change the mind of his pastor and friend of 20 years? 
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Meeker
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« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2008, 08:32:36 am »

Even if Obama drops 10, 20 points in the polls, even if Clinton wins Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana, even if Clinton wins every remaining contest 60%-40%, Obama still leads in delegates. Obama wins. Game over.

Momentum, national poll numbers, etc. mean nothing at this point. They are not relevant. The only important number is the delegate count and the ONLY way Clinton can win is by having a Superdelegate  coup... which isn't going to happen.

Obama has won. It's just a waiting game now. The sooner Clinton realizes this and gets out so we can start the healing process the better.
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agcatter
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« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2008, 08:34:31 am »

Too late for this to help Hillary get the nomination.  He's too far ahead.

Unfortunately fpr Obama, the GE is another story.  Working class Democrats and independents got to peak under the mask.  They didn't like what they saw.
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motomonkey
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« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2008, 08:40:40 am »

Obama has the delegate lead but cannot get to 2,025 needed in the remaining primaries.  If Clinton wins the remaining contests 60/40, the super delegates will enough evidence to justify going with Clinton. 

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Meeker
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« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2008, 08:42:35 am »

Obama has the delegate lead but cannot get to 2,025 needed in the remaining primaries.  If Clinton wins the remaining contests 60/40, the super delegates will enough evidence to justify going with Clinton. 



It doesn't matter. There is no way in hell the Superdelegates are going to pick Clinton after she loses the pledged delegates. It would rip the party in two and these Superdelegates are far more loyal to the party than they are to any one candidate.

Besides, a ton of Superdelegates just don't like the Clintons. There's a reason hundreds of them didn't jump on board back during the "Clinton is inevitable" phase.
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Commrade Grumps
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« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2008, 08:49:38 am »

Obama has the delegate lead but cannot get to 2,025 needed in the remaining primaries.  If Clinton wins the remaining contests 60/40, the super delegates will enough evidence to justify going with Clinton. 



It doesn't matter. There is no way in hell the Superdelegates are going to pick Clinton after she loses the pledged delegates. It would rip the party in two and these Superdelegates are far more loyal to the party than they are to any one candidate.

Besides, a ton of Superdelegates just don't like the Clintons. There's a reason hundreds of them didn't jump on board back during the "Clinton is inevitable" phase.

And let's not forget Convention Chair and Speaker of the House Pelosi has already declared that the supers shall not overturn the results of who leads in delegates.

Yeah Yeah Dean is DNC Chair, but she has power....he has no real power.  I bet the Beast wishes Bugsy Rendell was DNC Chair again.....he can't be pushed around.
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agcatter
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« Reply #6 on: March 19, 2008, 08:55:41 am »

I don't think Obama has anything to worry about as far as getting the nomination.

Clinton will narrow the lead in delegates by around 40 by June.

She will narrow substantially the lead Obama has in popular vote.

Remaining primaries:

Obama wins Oregon by 5 pts, NC by 5,  narrow win in South Dakota and Montana - all much less than he'd have won by pre Wright coming out of the closet.

Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 12 - 14 pts, Indiana by 8 or 9.  Massive blowout wins in West Virginia and Kentucky.

Obama is limping to the finish line and is close enough to stumble over ahead of Clinton.

Wright hurt him badly among blue collar Democrats and independents and, as I said, bad news for him in the general - in particular, the states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
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Ben.
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« Reply #7 on: March 19, 2008, 08:58:35 am »

Wright hurt him badly among blue collar Democrats and independents and, as I said, bad news for him in the general - in particular, the states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

I still fail to see the evidence for this... Obama been knocked badly the past couple of weeks, but its hardly terminal.

If he still wins the nomination he'll have his shot with blue collar Dems, folks on this forum overestimate this events impact... it's biggest problem for Obama is that its dragged on for so long. 
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2008, 09:00:50 am »

It also won't help that the Republicans nominated the best candidate to attract those working class Democrats and independents. This is horrible news for the Democrats going into the general in which the Democrats should win.
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motomonkey
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« Reply #9 on: March 19, 2008, 09:29:45 am »

The Rev. Wright video is the "Howard Dean Scream of the 2008" election.  His followers failed to understand how a single unguarded moment could undo all the good things that led to his leadership position. 

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agcatter
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« Reply #10 on: March 19, 2008, 09:33:23 am »

Ben, I didn't say it was terminal.  I said he was hurt in those states.  These are three states loaded with working class lunchpale Democrats - the weakest part of Obama's Democratic coalition.  It just got weaker when the Wright videos came out.  Don't forget that these three states are states that George Wallace scored in double digits running on a third party the vast majority of which came from blue collar Democrats.  I don't think any objective observor disputes that Obama took a hit with this demographic.  The only question is how much.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #11 on: March 19, 2008, 09:36:10 am »

The Rev. Wright video is the "Howard Dean Scream of the 2008" election.  His followers failed to understand how a single unguarded moment could undo all the good things that led to his leadership position. 



If there ever was one in 2008, this would be it. The more and more it's played on tv, the worse off Obama will be. The only problem is it came after the Dems have essentially chosen him as their candidate. With Dean, they had time to jump ship to John Kerry. Unfortunately, Obama's base of blacks and white liberals probably agree with Wright, so they'll give Obama enough votes to keep him ahead in delegates no matter what.
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MODU
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« Reply #12 on: March 19, 2008, 09:49:57 am »

The Rev. Wright video is the "Howard Dean Scream of the 2008" election.  His followers failed to understand how a single unguarded moment could undo all the good things that led to his leadership position. 

I think the audio recording of Wright casting down the Jews is more influencial than the anti-US videos by Wright.  The Jewish vote is an important but less-covered block that can swing elections.
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agcatter
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« Reply #13 on: March 19, 2008, 09:58:15 am »

Bye bye Florida.  If Obama even had a chance there anyway which I doubt.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #14 on: March 19, 2008, 10:11:50 am »

New thread title, same people, same comments...
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MODU
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« Reply #15 on: March 19, 2008, 10:16:29 am »

New thread title, same people, same comments...

Stick around long enough, and you will be able to predict the order of the posters in each thread and their comments.  Smiley
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #16 on: March 19, 2008, 10:19:29 am »

This isn't terminal. Incidents in March don't matter in the GE.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #17 on: March 19, 2008, 10:20:20 am »

New thread title, same people, same comments...

Stick around long enough, and you will be able to predict the order of the posters in each thread and their comments.  Smiley

LOL. I've spent too much time in the geekier low-traffic corners of this site.
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Michael Z
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« Reply #18 on: March 19, 2008, 10:21:23 am »

The Rev. Wright video is the "Howard Dean Scream of the 2008" election. 

Wishful thinking.
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MODU
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« Reply #19 on: March 19, 2008, 10:21:44 am »

New thread title, same people, same comments...

Stick around long enough, and you will be able to predict the order of the posters in each thread and their comments.  Smiley

LOL. I've spent too much time in the geekier low-traffic corners of this site.

Ewww!  I hope you washed before you touched this thread.  Tongue
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #20 on: March 19, 2008, 10:22:32 am »

New thread title, same people, same comments...

Stick around long enough, and you will be able to predict the order of the posters in each thread and their comments.  Smiley

LOL. I've spent too much time in the geekier low-traffic corners of this site.

And what's interesting is that the posters, by post, are completely diferent on other parts. I, for instance, post A LOT, but rarely on this board.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #21 on: March 19, 2008, 10:23:47 am »

New thread title, same people, same comments...

Stick around long enough, and you will be able to predict the order of the posters in each thread and their comments.  Smiley

Didn't you know that I have a list of ready-made comments on my clipboard that I just plug into the site for each thread topic?
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J. J.
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« Reply #22 on: March 19, 2008, 10:25:09 am »

I think to lock down the super delegates, Obama needs two things:

1.  To win the elected delegates by a 67-110 net delegate margin (MI/FL), or.

2.  Win after the MI/FL delegates are reselected.

If he doesn't, I believe Hillary wins.
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motomonkey
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« Reply #23 on: March 19, 2008, 10:46:31 am »

This isn't terminal. Incidents in March don't matter in the GE.
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Tell that to Howard Dean.  Here is a link to a CBS News report dated Jan 23, 2004 where Dick Meyer reports that the scream "is no big deal" and doesn't understand why the media is latching on to the story.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/01/23/opinion/meyer/main595508.shtml

Or what about Ed Muskies, March 4, 1972 "tears?" 

It isn't fair, but when the media and the public get connected on one of these things it doesn't go away.  My opinion is we are on the front-end not the back-end of the Wright - Obama story.

Lot's of front runners fail in the spring of election year. 
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Brittain33
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« Reply #24 on: March 19, 2008, 10:48:54 am »

Lot's of front runners fail in the spring of election year. 

The examples you cited both fell in the primaries. That's statistically impossible for Obama at this point. We're talking about the general election.
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